Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  CalendarCalendar  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin

Global Economies - Where are they going?
 The Equity Desk Forum :Economy, Markets and commodities :Global Economies - Where are they going?
Message Icon Topic: Yen Carry Trade Post Reply Post New Topic
<< Prev Page  of 11 Next >>
Author Message
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 21/Jan/2008 at 9:56pm

The Bank of Japan interest rate decision comes out tomorrow morning and BOJ is very very likely to downgrade their view on the economy.

Interest rates are likely to stay unchanged and the voting is likely to be 10-0.

 

The bank is likely to set up a rate cut in the next 3-4 months.

 

 

BOJ = Bank of Jokers……… LOL

 

 

 

You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 29/Feb/2008 at 9:54am

Go $-Yen Go…… Low yesterday was 103.69.

BOJ big line of Defense in the last 10-Years has been 101.28 - 100.70. Another "Faith Test" looms large..
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 05/Mar/2008 at 7:46pm
How bad do we have it now? How do you think it compares?

October 1987 Stock Market Crash;
The Dow Jones falls 500+ Points, or 22%, in the steepest decline since 1929. Hedging, Portfolio Insurance, and the newly developed Automated Quantum Trading (Black Boxes) take the blame for allowing things to get quickly out of hand. Regulations are put in place to monitor Exchange Floors. Market participants are unaware of the numbers and the losses taken until after the Runners have collected, and collated the Buy/Sell Tickets. Late into the night the reality sets in of just how big the run on prices really was. Calamity Reading 90%.

1988 US Savings & Loan Crisis;
Unregulated Savings and Loans are out of control after legislation controlling their use was scrapped. Over 1000 institutions fail, and a lot of finger pointing lead to the culprit; Greed. Calamity Reading 80%.

1990 Japanese Asset Bubble Bursts;
Bank of Japan raises Interest Rates to cool an overheating economy, stagflation takes hold and the reaction is for the Nikkei 225 to drop over 30,000 Points, a move that lasts for over a decade, and drops 80% off the Tokyo Equity Market values. The bottom is eventually found at 7,608, in 2003. Calamity Reading 90%.

September 1992 UK Exits The ERM;
The UK is forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism following a spate of speculative attacks on the Pound. The Hedge Fund ran by Mr George Soros picks the Bank of England off to the tune of £10 Billion (20 Billion Dollars). Legislation is passed that will not allow somebody to ride in from nowhere and get on the correct side of a gamble that is allowed to pay out that much. The Bank of England are left to replenish their Reserves. Calamity Reading 70%.

December 1994 Mexico Devalues The Peso;
The Peso is devalued by a desperate Government, and the move halves the value of the currency virtually straight away. The US steps in with emergency funding, and grants loan guarantees to the tune of $50 Billion. Calamity Reading 80%.

February 1995 Rouge Trader;
Nick Leeson, a 28 year old trader for Baring Brothers in Singapore collects accolades for the amount of business being generated by his Arbitrage Desk. There are more than $1 Billion of Futures Contracts pegged to the Nikkei 225 that are going downhill fast, and this man single-handedly brings down the UK’s oldest investment Bank. Baring Brothers is sold for one British Pound. Calamity Reading 50%.

July 1997 Asian Financial Crisis;
Thailand gets things rolling by running out of enough Foreign Exchange Reserves to be able to back its currency, and as such the Baht falls to record lows. The impact in the ‘Emerging Markets’ spreads across Asia and draws in the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia. The International Monetary Fund steps in with emergency loans to the tune of $50 Billion. Calamity Reading 90%.

October 1997 The Anniversary Crash;
The Dow Jones falls 550 points, or just over 7%, in response to the Asian crisis, and the NYSE introduces new regulations to limit the damage. Wall Street closes early for the day. Calamity Reading 80%.

August 1998 Russian Defaults; Yen Carry Bursts
Falling Oil prices squeeze the Russian economy, a consequence of the Global recession that followed the Asian Crisis. The Russian Central Bank widens the trading range for the Ruble, and it goes on to drop by 12% in value. The Government imposes a 3 month moratorium on foreign debt payments, in other words it defaults on its loans.
 
$-Yen carry trade busts and Yen gains rapidly sending Japanese economy in a downhill.
 
Calamity Reading 70%.

August 1998 US Reacts To Russian Crisis;
Hedge Funds get into trouble when a flight to cash follows the Russian Debt Crisis, and a re-pricing of Risk takes place. The Bank of New York puts in place a rescue package to limit the fear of Hedge Funds failing. The Dow Jones drops 500+ points on the above news, the Asian crisis, and on the same day a misille strike by North Korea that sends three missiles over Japan. All is not well in the world. Calamity Reading 80%.

April 2000 Internet Bubble Bursts;
The Dow Jones tumbles over 600 points, the second largest drop on record, at the same time the Nasdaq drops 355 points, or nearly 10%. The Nasdaq goes on to lose 1000 points in the week’s trade, and ends up off 34% from the all-time high set just one month before. The Internet companies that IPO’d and ran higher give back virtually all of their values, some are reduced to absolutely nothing and are de-listed. Calamity Reading 90%.

September 2001
The NYSE opens to a 684 point slide, the largest ever one day move, but a base is quickly found. The Government and the Federal Reserve step in to support the economy. A tragic event that neither loss of money, nor assets, can really compare to. This puts in perspective what loss is really all about.

July 2007 US Sub-Prime Valuations Announced;
In the first that many had publicly heard of it, the rating agencies Standard and Poors, and Moody’s, downgrade the LDO and CDO packages that contain the Sup-prime mortgages that were issued in the insatiable appetite that the US had to own a house. Good loans, bad loans, terrible loans, and average loans were bundled together and sold as good debt to Mutal and Hedge Funds. Once the downgrades were issued by the rating agencies the debt could not be held by many Funds, they could not sell them, and as such started to write-off their values in a move that decimated many balance sheets.

The Federal Reserve wait until September to cut Rates, after waiting more than a year to cut, and then go on to shave 275 Basis Points from US Rates in quick time. The knock-on effects reduce GDP growth numbers and create a run on the US Dollar. Emergency Stimulus Packages are introduced, and the economy hunkers down for a rough ride. Calamity Reading ?%.
Yen Carry busts as Mrs Wantable has no more Yen to export anymore.
 
 
 
 
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
PrashantS
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 14/Oct/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1294
Quote PrashantS Replybullet Posted: 05/Mar/2008 at 8:14pm
i really hope yen cools down and goes back to 107 or 110 ....<100 heads will roll

this over leveraging is the most dangerous thing ...people never learn from their past be it 2006 in india or the recent crash.
IP IP Logged
omshivaya
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 06/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 5966
Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 05/Mar/2008 at 11:07pm
Excellent piece of work up there Bubble ji
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
IP IP Logged
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 07/Mar/2008 at 2:18pm

$-Yen now with 101 handle.

Last at 101.94/98. Yes, we are coming. However, wary of BOJ and Kampo.
 
$-Yen has not traded below 100 since Dec-1995.
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
PrashantS
Senior Member
Senior Member


Joined: 14/Oct/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1294
Quote PrashantS Replybullet Posted: 07/Mar/2008 at 3:59pm
man this is a big worry
IP IP Logged
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 07/Mar/2008 at 5:32am
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
<< Prev Page  of 11 Next >>
Post Reply Post New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



This page was generated in 0.047 seconds.
Bookmark this Page