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Message Icon Topic: Oil Bonds- Whom is Govt. trying to fool? Post Reply Post New Topic
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manishdave
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 17/Oct/2006 at 9:41pm
1-5 looks okay. I am not sure abt chemical businesses. Very easy to make unless some niche. I am holding Petrobras(PBR) since long time as that company is adding reserves and growing production. It is fully integrated and very cheap. P/E 7.
 
In small companies Calvalley listed in Canada has good prospect but you wiil have to be patient as production is few Q away. At this price it may be available at p/e of 3. Reliance is partner in their project.
 
 
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 17/Oct/2006 at 10:14pm
Hi Manish,
 
Just a thing I wanted to ask you. Dont you think governements world over subsidise stuff whose non-availability to the masses may be a cayse of concern. TheEU and the US devote a lot of funds for farm subsidies.I am not stansding against you but then the governments have to come up with some protective steps against the vulnerabilities.
 
Manish, my cousin is in Canda and she recommended Falconbridge and Inco. Any idea about both of them? From the look of your style, I dont think you have any aversion to commodity stocks. Do throw some light on other oil companies.
 
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manishdave
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 17/Oct/2006 at 12:47pm
Manish, my cousin is in Canda and she recommended Falconbridge and Inco. Any idea about both of them? From the look of your style, I dont think you have any aversion to commodity stocks. Do throw some light on other oil companies.
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Falconbridge and Inco are biggie. When I invest in commodity, I dont go for biggie. Go for juniors and there is more money. They are very volatile though. To give you example if city is developing and you buy land in heart of city, it goes up 30%, but if you buy in far suburbs and wait for few years, you may make 500%.
 
Northern Dynasty(NAK) is trading at mkt cap of $550m. Value of recoverable metal in ground is mor than $150b. But it may take 5-7 years(minimum) before it goes into production and that might be one of the biggest mine then. With that scale they should have good cost advantage too. But one needs patients. I dont have NAK now but I trade in it. But some juniors are in potential p/e of 1.5-3 and prodcution is due in few months.
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Just a thing I wanted to ask you. Dont you think governements world over subsidise stuff whose non-availability to the masses may be a cayse of concern. TheEU and the US devote a lot of funds for farm subsidies.I am not stansding against you but then the governments have to come up with some protective steps against the vulnerabilities.
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Govts do what Govts do but that doesnt make it right. Govt  subside stuff to please voters. For non-availbilty concer, they can store stuff instead of subsidising. Subsidies do some weird things that we cant analyse. For example free power to farmers. Good cause but its not good for farmers themselves!! Know why?
When its free, they drain all the water(neccessory or not) from ground and water table goes lower and lower so they need more power. Free power would make utilities bkrupt so they send power with lower voltage and farmers motors burn. There are more frequent power cuts. They take forever to give new connections to farmers.
 
 
Point here is, if Brazil/Mexico subsidise oil it is not so bad as they have it. We subsidise something which we dont have. We should be working for long term alternate like Brazil did. NDA took initiative for ethanol but Manishankar killed program just because of it. We have enough thorium. What are we doing abt that?
 
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 17/Oct/2006 at 9:09am
Thanks Manish....I agree with your take on commodities now.The smalls are riskuer but the reward is way too high as well.Just look at the way some of our mining stocks like ashapura, GMDCand Sesa has blown off.Its merely a matter of comfort when we buy biggies, nothing  more than that.
 
Coming to one more cyclical industry, Shipping. I was looking at the Annual Report of Teekay Corporation and Alexander & Baldwin. These companies have such wonderful balance sheets and are doing all the things correctly.They are cutting their debts, accumulating big amounts in depreciation and all the positive things that a good corporate does.Dont you beleive they hold some wonderful potential when it comes to growth from here on..?????
 
I also agree now that subsidies do no good. Yourobservatio on free power was wonderful.There mustbe incentive for production and never for consumption.When you subsidise a consumption item you tend to artifically increase demand and until and unless you dont have the means to increase supply, such a step back-fires.Good take Manish.... Its all one and the same thing, the tax payers have to bear the oil deficit.... by directly paying more taxes or by seeing the value of assets erodr due to impending inflation.
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