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Message Icon Topic: How to play pharma? Post Reply Post New Topic
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 22/Jul/2009 at 7:20pm
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SingleMalt
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Quote SingleMalt Replybullet Posted: 27/Jul/2009 at 2:44am
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4823966.cms
How pharma companies can be better long-term bets
27 Jul 2009, 0545 hrs IST, Kiran Kabtta Somvanshi and Santanu Mishra, ET Bureau

Nothing ventured, nothing gained is a popular Spanish proverb elucidating that taking risk is a prerequisite for expecting any higher return. Unfortunately, that’s not always the case in the world of investing. At times, investors invest in companies which have ‘ventured’ and taken risk, but have failed to achieve the commensurate returns. Pharma sector in India is a case in point that has several such companies.

Many pharma companies in India have attempted risky business models, but this has not necessarily provided higher or better returns to their shareholders.

An analysis done by ET Intelligence Group shows that the companies which otherwise top the list when compared only on the basis of absolute growth may not top the list when sorted in order of risk-adjusted growth rates. This
makes the stocks of such companies unattractive in a long-run because of relative unpredictability of future earnings.

Pharmaceutical sector in India is a mixed bag of generic companies following variety of business models. While some companies are only present in the domestic market, there are others that have chosen to do business in large regulated markets of US and Europe.

Some companies have employed their marketing & distribution strength to market (under license) drugs owned by MNCs. There are still few others, which are investing heavily in drug discovery and have attempted to shift from being a generic company manufacturing copycat drugs to launching new molecules. While the sector as such is fairly defensive, the events of recent months have shown that there is nothing sacrosanct about the defensiveness of individual companies that follow risky business model.

Growth in the $10 billion Indian market couldn’t provide the scale to ambitious pharma companies that eyed the $ 300 billion US market – the world’s largest pharma market - as the destination to achieve scale. A mere 2% share in the largest market in the world could quadruple the size of even the largest Indian company.

However, unlike the domestic market where value-addition through branding and marketing allows the companies with multiple tools to augment earnings, being a low cost producer is the only competitive tool available to Indian companies to thrive in US and other regulated markets.

Over dependence on cost competitiveness however comes with its own set of risks –increased scrutiny and clamps from drug regulators, legal risks in challenging patented drugs and rising pricing pressure as regulated markets overhaul their healthcare systems. Indian generic makers have also been on defensive due to a general shift from branded drugs to unbranded generics market.

Companies that have acquired assets or businesses abroad have also taken hit as global economic slowdown has made their overseas operations financially less viable. Added to these woes, the volatility in currency movements have also made the earnings volatile for companies with cross-country operations. All these risks have increased manifold in recent period.

And the risk is more in case of companies wherein contribution of overseas market to the total revenues is much more than that of domestic market. Take the instance of Ranbaxy, which has grown its topline by more than two and half times in last eight years while net profit peaked at Rs 774.6 crore in year ending 2007. Last year the company posted a loss of Rs 951 crore. In case of Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, the topline has swelled four times over the same period, while the bottomline has nearly halved!

Amidst this volatile environment, the best bet for investors is to look for companies offering the best risk adjusted return rather than the best absolute returns. This is because, the best absolute returns can be a result of few excellent quarters but without any consistency.

ET Intelligence Group analysed the results of top 16 pharma companies and calculated the average growth rates of their net sales, operating profits and net profits over a ten-year period since 1999 on trailing fourquarter basis. Standard deviation of these growth rates has been used as a measure of risk. Further, the average growth rate is divided by the standard deviation to arrive at risk-adjusted growth rates. The companies have finally been ranked as per their best riskadjusted growth rates in operating profit.

The results of this exercise bring out Cipla, Divi’s Labs, Sun Pharma, Cadila Healthcare and Piramal Healthcare to be the best contenders on a risk-adjusted basis. Most of these companies have strong businesses in domestic market, which brings stability to their earnings.

Sun Pharma, despite having significant business in US, has been able to register stable growth in its returns. Its stock performance accordingly has grown at a fairly steady pace. Glenmark and Jubilant Organosys are closely trailing this set of companies. All these companies, while having the highest risk-adjusted returns amongst their peers, have also registered operating profit growth of more than 20%.

 



Edited by SingleMalt - 27/Jul/2009 at 2:45am
If only I knew then what I know now...
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vsb2pwn
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Posted: 28/Jul/2009 at 1:58am
The latest in thing in Pharma sector is CRO (Clinical Research Organisations). Also, this is going to be the end thing in separating men from boys. Most big bulk drug manufacturers have in-house R&D facilities and have in-house CRO department. But India is also emerging as an outsourcing destination for CRO's as it was for BPO's earlier.
I reproduce excerpts from an article:
India: A Target-Rich Environment
India is quickly emerging as one of the most strategic locations for global pharmaceutical companies to pursue their drug research and development. Highly skilled doctors, trained paramedical personnel and a supporting research infrastructure that is growing in sophistication are just a few of the factors that have made India one of the most sought-after destinations for clinical trial outsourcing.
This growth in pharmaceutical sales is being driven by a transitional disease profile, growing access to medicines and expanding public-health programs. Pharmerging markets are expected to account for 24 percent of the total market growth, while the top seven markets are expected to contribute just under 50 percent of the growth. According to a recent report from McKinsey & Co., if the Indian economy continues on its current high-growth path, then the Indian pharmaceuticals market will undergo a major transformation in the next decade. The market will triple to $20 billion by 2015 and move into the world’s top 10 pharmaceutical markets. This growth in the worldwide pharmaceutical landscape will have an additive effect on the contract research landscape.
In 2006, the Indian CRO market was estimated to be valued at $265 million. The total global CRO market was $14.3 billion in 2006. By 2010, based on a CAGR of 22.7 percent, the Indian market is expected to be $600 million. The global market will experience a CAGR of 13.8 percent and be valued at $24 billion. A more aggressive estimation by analysts at McKinsey has the 2010 clinical research market in India valued at $1 billion. Furthermore, in 2005 an estimated 1 percent of global clinical trials were conducted in India, a percentage that is projected to grow to 15 percent by 2011. And by the year 2011, more than 300,000 patients are expected to be enrolled in clinical trials in India.
Driving Growth
There are several reasons that India is becoming a preferred region for clinical operations. First, the amendments made in 2005 with respect to the schedule Y of India’s Drugs and Cosmetics Act of 1942 have made India more favorable as a center for new trials. The amendment in Schedule Y allows parallel trial conduct in India simultaneously with the rest of the world, eliminating the phase lag that was observed earlier. India also is expected to become the world’s most populous country by 2035, according to the McKinsey Quarterly report. The country is already the youngest. It is home to 20 percent of the world’s population under 24 years of age.
India has a diverse patient population–genetically, culturally and socio-economically–many of whom are also naïve to treatment. Diseases such as multidrug resistant pneumonia, Hepatitis B, diabetes and some cancers are far more prevalent in India than in the West. As the incidence of these and other diseases continues to increase, these patients become even more important for filling recruitment quotas. Additionally, shorter recruitment timelines are prevalent in India and patient compliance is higher. These factors are critical when global R&D costs have increased 23-fold in the past 28 years and the average development time in the United States is approaching 15 years. Typical clinical studies in the United States take up 30 percent to 50 percent of the time allowed for R&D, one-third of which is spent on patient recruitment. It is crucial to streamline the development process as much as possible. Adding to the country’s viability as a clinical trial haven is that many of the patent protection and intellectual- property-rights issues have been resolved.
Since January 2005, India has risen to the level of developed nations by becoming compliant with the Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights Act (TRIPS). India possesses a world-class data processing infrastructure for biostatistics and bioinformatics. The country also possesses large generic drug-manufacturing facilities, which will grow in importance as the focus on marketing generic drugs in the United States and Europe increases radically and many name brands and blockbusters are scheduled to lose their patent protection this decade.
While there are no language barriers for U.S.-based operations looking to establish a footprint in India, manufacturers, CROs and patient-recruitment companies will need to invest considerable resources into education, as 70 percent of the population lives in rural areas and the poor rely on the public system for preventive and inpatient care. On the other hand, these patient populations often rely on clinical trials for their immediate healthcare needs.
The Challenges
Despite India’s many milestones in the clinical research arena, there are some challenges that the estimated 120 CROs with operations in India must face. There are only about 500 GCP-trained investigators experienced in conducting clinical trials. Moreover, with 0.6 doctors and 0.08 nurses per thousand people, India has significantly fewer physicians than the world average. It has 1.2 doctors and 2.6 nurses per 1,000 people, according to a recent World Health Organization report.
Furthermore, the country only has 1.5 beds per 1,000 people, which is much lower than the average three to four beds per 1,000 people in other developing markets, such as Brazil, China, South Africa and Thailand. In the United States and Western Europe, where there are larger elderly populations, there are four to eight beds per 1,000 people. But McKinsey reports that the number of hospital beds and physicians is expected to double by 2015, driven largely by private investments. Analysts report that as many as two million hospital beds and 400,000 physicians will be added. Furthermore, corporate hospital chains will play a leading role in transforming the quality of secondary and tertiary care. And health-insurance penetration is expected to double by 2015 to cover 220 million people.
For Detailed Article Read
Another article in "Pharmaexpress" titled
"Preclinical CROs in India: the next in thing?"
Can be read here
"The Hindu Business Line" article
"Domestic clinical trials market booms"
Can be read here

Is this not all encouraging?
But we have, as usual, few thumbs down also. Read This
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Hitesh Shah
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Quote Hitesh Shah Replybullet Posted: 31/Jul/2009 at 11:03am
A note of caution here.
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vsb2pwn
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Quote vsb2pwn Replybullet Posted: 01/Aug/2009 at 5:56pm
Right Hitesh JI,

The points raised about drug discovery in India are quite valid as pointed in link in your post.
Glenmark's experience in clinical trials also served a jolt as pointed out in thumbs down link in my earlier post. I was trying to evaluate Piramal Life Sciences. For the technical (scientific) evaluation of company's drugs in pipeline. I asked my younger brother and his wife, both senior research scientists in US pharma majors and this is what my brother tells me.

Verbatim From His E-mail:

Avoid it. Drug discovery is a long process >10 yrs. The company has only 2 molecules in Phase I. 9 out of 10 drugs/companies at this stage do not make it. Neither the targets nor the technology is unique. Looking at the trial, I think they do not even know what they are doing. Big returns in pharmaceutical come after Phase II or Phase III.
Financials are too bad. I would say the company will disappear before the end of 2010 or survive as a contract research company.

To  substantiate this he provided this link

http://investingvalues.blogspot.com/2009/07/piramal-life-sciences-or-slot-machines.html

Intresting to note is the dicussion between the blogger and company investor relation executive Sagar Gokani.


Edited by vsb2pwn - 01/Aug/2009 at 6:21pm
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chimak10
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Quote chimak10 Replybullet Posted: 01/Aug/2009 at 6:23pm
I always thought best way to play pharma was to investing in some dedicated pharam mutual fund.....is there any kind of fund like that.

Would save a lot of headache........
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Hitesh Shah
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Quote Hitesh Shah Replybullet Posted: 01/Aug/2009 at 9:16pm
There are at least four. You can check here
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chimak10
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Quote chimak10 Replybullet Posted: 01/Aug/2009 at 11:16am
except of reliance all other are duds.......
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