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kulman
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Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 9319
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   Posted: 26/Oct/2007 at 2:11pm |
"Bol mere Laal"
Bunty: "Papa...Papa....Breaking news!"
Mungerilal: "Kya hain??? What now? You always disturb me & then I lose my focus on top 5 Buy-Sell orders, volumes & intraday action. Okay...... tell me..."
Bunty: "Your friend ChhoteLaal who was heavily Short & also advised you to go short because of abnormal IV....(implied volatility) ?"
Mungerilal: " ....yeah....what happened to him?"
Bunty: "Papa.....he is in ICU and literally living on dosage of IV fluids."
Mungerilal: " ...Bh#$%#...  "
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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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kulman
Senior Member
Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 9319
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Posted: 30/Oct/2007 at 11:10pm |
"Bol mere Laal"
Bunty: "Papa...Look here! I've got a software from my friend for FAMILY TREE. And now I have updated data for the last 3 generations with the help of Dadi jee & Bade Chacha jee."
Mungerilal: "Hmmm.....okay" (needless to say his intra-day trades 'stopped out' today...so not in good mood)
Bunty: "Look here....out of 31 deaths, 25 of our ancestors died in the months between November & December. So you need to be careful over the next two months, Papa."
Mungerilal: " ..BEHAVE YOURSELF!  And learn to think rationally BUNTY! How in the hell could you arrive at such fortune telling based on irrelevant past data."
Bunty: "Papa....Sorry if you are feeling bad. But don't those TAUs carry out similar excercises in the Markets day-in and day-out and you follow their advise blindly to trade on leverage? So who's being irrational, Papa?"
Mungerilal: " ...Bh#$%#... "
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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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xbox
Senior Member
Joined: 10/Sep/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2001
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Posted: 30/Oct/2007 at 5:39am |
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Kulman jee, Bunty se uske pichale janam ka name poochiye, hum sabhi ko lagta hai kee uska name 'little johny' tha.
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kulman
Senior Member
Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 9319
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Posted: 27/Nov/2007 at 12:15pm |
Bunty is surfing the net & Mungerilal walks into his room ......
"Bol mere Laal"
Mungerilal: "BUNTY! What's all this? You are watching obscene pics of Oriental beauties on the intenet!!! STOP it now!"
Bunty: "Papa...It isn't my mistake....."
Mungerilal: "Disconnect the internet at once! At your age we used to watch religious films like Bhakta Pralhad. I don't know who spoiled you....those school classmates?? "
Bunty: "Please listen to me....pleaaasse. Actually it's because of you that I found those naked pictures."
Mungerilal: " ..HOW??"
Bunty: "I heard you talking to your friend that you would look at cues from Asian markets & the actions of Japanese Housewives & Chinese Maids for your trading strategy. I just googled for them & got this....?"
Mungerilal: " ...Bh#$%#... "
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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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kulman
Senior Member
Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 9319
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Posted: 28/Nov/2007 at 7:41am |
"Bol mere Laal"
Bunty: "Papa...You look so worried. Is everything okay?"
Mungerilal: "Beta Bunty, haven't you heard about that 8-year itch report by CNBC?"
Bunty: "Oh! How come even they know about your multi-year habit of crotch scratching? "
Mungerilal: "BUNTY,  not that!! It's the special exclusive report Will mkts succumb to 8-yr itch? "
Bunty: "Hmmm.....I haven't seen that. What does it say?"
Mungerilal: "The study shows that every 8 years the stock market peaks out. This is evident since 1984 onwards....markets peaked out in 1984, in 1992, in 2000, and we are headed into 2008. This is based on 24 years of empirical evidence. the market is now expected to tank 50% from its peak."
Bunty: "Oh yeah?!"
Mungerilal: "The detailed study by experts further refers two supporting factors.....First is about how post Olympics, China may slow down. Secondly, US may enter into a recession. And Indian markets have a ß (Beta) correlation of greater than 0.5 with the US economy and markets. So, if the US enters into a recession, the Indian market could go down."
Bunty: "Hmmmm......does it also say that immediately after Chinese Olympics are over, India would stop all ongoing development projects? That contractors would leave all the work-in-progress half-way? And that we Indians would stop activities like shopping, travelling, drinking, eating by looking at imminent US recession? And that ß (beta) factor of corelation with US market can't change? This is not to say that the markets wouldn't correct. Ups & Downs are the basic character & nature of capital markets. I seriously feel that Papa you should focus on companies, their earnings and growth prospects. If for external factors Markets goes down with no reason as regards to the concened companies ...in fact you should rejoice! It would be an opportunity to buy more shares."
Mungerilal: "....."
Bunty: "Don't you feel that Warren Buffett, the legendary & most successful investor is right when he says--"Stop trying to predict the direction of the stock market, the economy, interest rates, or elections, and stop wasting money on individuals that do this for a living." I recently heard a buzz about a website which might change your investing life....Why don't you become a member of TED ? Having said that...Papa STOP scratching that at once! Here....apply some Ichguard."
Mungerilal: " ...Bh#$%#... "
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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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Posted: 28/Nov/2007 at 7:56am |
Kulmanji these CNBC guys are seriously giving you a fight for innovation. While your innovative ideas cleanse our thoughts the ones by your competitor are becoming a source for some really ordinary thinking.
Why do these guys do such things? It defies all logic. Are 4 instances enough to determine a trend? It is a shame that such kind of research are put up on the country's foremost website/channel.
Edited by basant - 28/Nov/2007 at 7:58am
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Vivek Sukhani
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Joined: 23/Jul/2006
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Posts: 6675
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Posted: 28/Nov/2007 at 9:12am |
Hi Kulman Sir and Basant Sir,
Although I agree with you that research should be company specific, yet of late some indicators are quite unnerving. My indicators have no relation whatsoever with the economy, sector , GDP. growth etc. Its purely psychological. The way markets( universe of small caps) are behaving is not giving any sense of comfort. Also, one have has to be mindful of the scale of speculation. Promoters are doing things which is extremely depressing. I have no clue about consumer confidence and stuff like that, but investor confidence is declining and speculator confidence is reaching sky-high levels.
My friend in London calls it Graham to Cramer cycle. What is taking place in the markets is making mockery of financial prudence. He says there will be a spurt as most people are cautious but then dont be so lax to mistake the real sound of a wolf as an ordinary noise. Its all about the hour of reckoning when all excesses will be booked and people have got to pay for that. I remember Sameer Arora's words on tuition fees which the entire market has to pay for the foolery/inexperience of a 22 year old fund manager.
However, all this should not mean profit booking outright. For us for whom equities is more a passion rather than a source of income, booking out is something which we cant do but surely we can do a balancing to readjust risk-return matrix. I think we must think of making move into those stocks where we have the confidence to add more on declines and to be continuously able to do so. I call it the matching of confidence, returns and risk.
But then I must confess, atleast I liked this itching study...at least it had some substance. Although its almost impossible for me to book out for fear of crash. You cant stop living for the fear of death naa......
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kulman
Senior Member
Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 9319
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Posted: 28/Nov/2007 at 9:29am |
You are right....speculators running after 'momentum' Tips would eventually pay. Those tution fees would have to be paid at some point of time.
Look.... I'm not against people talking negative views about our economy+markets. To tell you the truth I'm looking forward to pro-longed bear market ....so that I can buy more of some wonderful businesses.
At the cost of repetition let me quote the words of Master: "Volatility is not risk. Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing".
Having said that.....I'm just a novice trying to learn. After becoming a TEDdy, I however wouldn't like to pay those high tution fees.....not anymore.
Edited by kulman - 28/Nov/2007 at 9:30am
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