| Author |
Message |
reetesh
Senior Member
Joined: 01/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 793
|
   Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 5:43pm |
There is to many numbers and variables in your prognosis and what I believe that this is not always the correct way to look at a company financial and price where growth is slowing, for me TV TODAY strength lies in its Magazine business, INDIA TODAY etc...
If we compare market cap. of NDTV and TV18. NDTV`s market cap. is bigger than TV18`s market cap. Growth in TV18 is higher than in NDTV..
Regards,
Reetesh.
|
|
When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
|
 IP Logged |
|
|
|
 |
|
basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
|
Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 5:49pm |
Tez should get valued at 125 crore, Headlines Today at 250 crores, while AajTak (the leader, add a premium) at 800 crores. TVTN more or less commands close to 25% of the total news viewership.
____________________________________________________________
Over the last few years Aaj Tak has lost market share from 60%+ to 25%. With so many hindi news channel the adv rates are not showing signs of strengthening. On the other hand market pays for growth. Now the value investors would say that there is value and I completely agree. SOmetime back I had done a cash/share calculation and it was around Rs 18 per share not sure what that is now. But over a period of time markets pay for growth. There iis no downside to Tv Today though.
About some time back TV today was in the same league as TV 18's business channel but the management at TV 18 was quick to seize opportunities. Tej is delhi centric only.
Now if you value Tej (regional channel)at Rs 125 crores and Headlines today at 250 crores. Just think what kind of valuation could you give to CNBCTV18, CNNIBN and NDTV 24/7 that have more then 4 times share of these two channels (tej and Headlines Today).
Though I am not bearish on TV Today I feel that the other alternatives are better.Generally I favour growth companies.
Edited by basant - 15/Sep/2006 at 5:51pm
|
|
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
achilles
Newbie
Joined: 15/Sep/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 16
|
Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:01pm |
TV Today's strength lies in Living Media (it's promoter company) which in turn has magazines like India Today in its arsenal. Do you know most of the promoters / anchors / journalists at some time have worked with Living Media before starting companies like NDTV or TV18. Living Media is the "GURU" of electronic medium. It's prodigy TV Today is currently being highly undervalued, and markets will have revalue it. At this stage TVTN's market capital is 1/3rd that of NDTV and TV18, which is grossly, grossly unfair. TVTN is not a growth story, but certainly reeks of value. And please do not forget the Foreign Factor. Although the Gov. policies are moving at a snail's pace, FIIs have got the permission to invest within the 26% FDI cap. This directive is waiting the final clearance from RBI. TVTN is the company which benefits the most if FIIs are allowed to invest in Indian news channels.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
achilles
Newbie
Joined: 15/Sep/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 16
|
Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:18pm |
Basant, you need to get your facts right. TEZ is not a regional channel. Delhi AajTak is a regional channel for Delhi NCR region. TEZ is a national channel based on fast-paced Hindi news and commands 3-4% market share of the total Hindi news genre, which is almost at par with IBN-7. Headlines Today though has less than 10% market share is under a major revamping process, and will give CNN-IBN and NDTV 24x7 run for their money. AajTak is the most trusted Indian news brand of India (source: news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/02_05_06mediatrust.pdf) and will continue to retain 25% market share which is GREAT considering the large population of India. Imagine if you are Rubert Murdoch or News Corp (mkt cap: $19.34 billion), at this price you will have to shell out $100 million to buy out TVTN and capture one-third of the news viewership in India. You have to be bullish on TVTN not just because of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, but Anil Ambani (Sonata Investment) also holds over 10% stake in TVTN.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
reetesh
Senior Member
Joined: 01/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 793
|
Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:27pm |
Hang on hang on, then why even with so much fan following in MEDIA SECTOR this value has not been realised, I totally agree with you that TVTODAY is very good buy, but you have even better buys in the sector.
Just putting up the number wont solve the investment puzzle my friend you need to back it by performance, which TVTODAY is lagging behind compares to others...
If my Uncle became a female she would be my Aunty not uncle...
Regards,
Reetesh....
|
|
When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
|
Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:49pm |
|
Sorry I worte Tej for Delhi Aaj Tak But that is how I see it. And that is what makes a market. Two opposite views...
|
|
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
|
Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:59pm |
IBN 7 has a 10% news share not sure if we should play the Sonata Investment card because he has bought stakes in other media companies as well. . The market has moved from 4500 to 12,000 and the TV Today stock has moved from 200 (post listing) to Rs 80. SOme of its other peer groups stocks have trebled or quadrapled in the meantime. I would always think that there is something more then we can see and I am not prepared to wait indefinetely because the opportunity cost is high. The financials have not improved except in the last quarter maybe.
If you are bullish on Tv Today you may buy it that is all I can say.You wanted my opinion and that is why I argued.
|
|
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
achilles
Newbie
Joined: 15/Sep/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 16
|
Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 2:55pm |
Ok Basant hats-off to your analysis on TV18. May you chase Growth, while I chase Value. Let's see after 6 months where both TV18 and TVTN stand. If you (TV18) wins the race, you will certainly get a new fan.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Active Topics
Memberlist
Calendar
Search
Help
Register
Login
