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prabhakarkudva
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Quote prabhakarkudva Replybullet Posted: 07/Feb/2011 at 8:21am
Why is there a need to focus on YoY EPS targets? Whether it is 15x or 17x should not make any difference to someone who is going to hold indian equities well beyond FY12.These discussions are better left to the fund managers.Neither Samir nor anyone else can pin-point what the EPS will be in FY12,so lets not worry and keep buying the companies we like unless they are grossly overvalued.
Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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abhishekbasu
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Quote abhishekbasu Replybullet Posted: 07/Feb/2011 at 9:34am
Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

Why is there a need to focus on YoY EPS targets? Whether it is 15x or 17x should not make any difference to someone who is going to hold indian equities well beyond FY12.These discussions are better left to the fund managers.Neither Samir nor anyone else can pin-point what the EPS will be in FY12,so lets not worry and keep buying the companies we like unless they are grossly overvalued.


In fact, that is exactly what Samir Arora has said in his interview. He says its very difficult to pin point valuation. The point he was trying to make is that fall has been overdone and India which is growing at around 8% cannot have a relative performance of much more than -15-18% from the US markets.

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barla
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Quote barla Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2011 at 4:02pm
 
SAMIR ARORA IS CONSIDERED A MASTER. AND MORESO ON TED, BUT THEN EVEN GODS HAVE FEAT OF CLAY.
 
 
I AM PUTTING A NOTE ON CONFIRMATION BIASIS HERE. SO WE SHOULD NOT CLOSE OUT EYES AND BE BIASED WHEN WE TRY TO ANALYSE HIS STATEMENTS ON TV.
 
 
I THINK HAVING 35% GROWTH IN EPS FRO THE NEXT 15 MONTHS FOR THE SENSEX IS VERY DIFFICULT.
 
 
WE SHOULD LOOK UP TO THE GURUS ONLY TO LEARN AND NOT FOLLOW THEM BILINDLY
 
 
 
 
Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true. As a result, people gather evidence and recall information from memory selectively, and interpret it in a biased way. The biases appear in particular for emotionally significant issues and for established beliefs. For example, in reading about gun control, people usually prefer sources that affirm their existing attitudes. They also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and/or recall have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a stronger weighting for data encountered early in an arbitrary series) and illusory correlation (in which people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).

A series of experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased towards confirming their existing beliefs. Later work explained these results in terms of a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In combination with other effects, this strategy can bias the conclusions that are reached. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another proposal is that people show confirmation bias because they are pragmatically assessing the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.

Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Hence they can lead to disastrous decisions, especially in organizational, military, political and social contexts.



Edited by barla - 08/Feb/2011 at 4:04pm
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nannu_68
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Quote nannu_68 Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2011 at 6:36pm
Bears are making the best of uncertainities which prevail in politics/ decision making in India. Other than this i see valid no reason for this sell off, at current valuations, its a partial buy for me. IMHO the reversal would be swift and would only come on favorable developments. The first one to watch will be "will BJP let the budget session proceed normally". If that does not happen, then there is more pain to come.... 

Edited by nannu_68 - 08/Feb/2011 at 6:38pm
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FutureBull
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Quote FutureBull Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2011 at 10:07pm
Few key trigger to watch according to me -

- Oil, which should come down as conflict in middle east is slowly going away.
- Commodities gonna cool off due to tightening in China, it raised rates again today and mining stocks have sold off globally. This might help some of the imported inflation
- JPC would be set up ultimately to break dead-lock in the Parliament
- we might have another two rounds of 25bp hike due but that should not worry us too much
- Only sticky issue is inflation and looming deficit as these would need 6 months at least. But can we wait till that time? we would know in hindsight..

I am an equity investor so don't have choice of making money through FDs.. will keep fishing in this troubled water.. Losses would give me some learning and profits make me happy   
‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’.
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barla
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Quote barla Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2011 at 10:22pm
The value of the dollar is collapsing because of the QE. So commodity and oil prices are not going up but simply adjusting to reflect the fall in the value of the dollar. It is unlikely that for the next 3-4 years there will any real change.
 
Gold prices will first reflet when commodity prices will stabilise first.
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nannu_68
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Quote nannu_68 Replybullet Posted: 09/Feb/2011 at 7:48pm
Sandip Sabharwal in his blog has addressed some of the concerns raised by us... Here's the link (hope it works, this my first at posting the link Embarrassed)

http://www.sandipsabharwal.com/search?updated-min=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00%2B05%3A30&updated-max=2012-01-01T00%3A00%3A00%2B05%3A30&max-results=5
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 09/Feb/2011 at 7:56pm
Originally posted by FutureBull

Losses would give me some learning and profits make me happy   


Good one sir.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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