SAMIR ARORA IS CONSIDERED A MASTER. AND MORESO ON TED, BUT THEN EVEN GODS HAVE FEAT OF CLAY.
I AM PUTTING A NOTE ON CONFIRMATION BIASIS HERE. SO WE SHOULD NOT CLOSE OUT EYES AND BE BIASED WHEN WE TRY TO ANALYSE HIS STATEMENTS ON TV.
I THINK HAVING 35% GROWTH IN EPS FRO THE NEXT 15 MONTHS FOR THE SENSEX IS VERY DIFFICULT.
WE SHOULD LOOK UP TO THE GURUS ONLY TO LEARN AND NOT FOLLOW THEM BILINDLY
Confirmation bias (also called
confirmatory bias or
myside bias) is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or
hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true. As a result, people gather evidence and recall information from memory selectively, and interpret it in a
biased way. The biases appear in particular for emotionally significant issues and for established beliefs. For example, in reading about
gun control, people usually prefer sources that affirm their existing attitudes. They also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and/or recall have been invoked to explain
attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a stronger weighting for data encountered early in an arbitrary series) and
illusory correlation (in which people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).
A series of experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased towards confirming their existing beliefs. Later work explained these results in terms of a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ignoring alternatives. In combination with other effects, this strategy can bias the conclusions that are reached. Explanations for the observed biases include wishful thinking and the limited human capacity to process information. Another proposal is that people show confirmation bias because they are pragmatically assessing the costs of being wrong, rather than investigating in a neutral, scientific way.
Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Hence they can lead to disastrous decisions, especially in organizational, military, political and social contexts.
Edited by barla - 08/Feb/2011 at 4:04pm