Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  CalendarCalendar  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin

Stock Synopsis
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Stock Synopsis
Message Icon Topic: Bharat Forge-Is the pain over? Post Reply Post New Topic
<< Prev Page  of 2
Author Message
hit2710
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 15/Jun/2009
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 4013
Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 03/Dec/2009 at 6:07pm
Originally posted by khokhadream


To me bharat forge looks to be a solid candidate for long term. 2012 onwards it looks like this company will have solid revenue stream. It looks like a good infrastructure play to me.

Can anyone cite any risk factors going forward.


Biggest risk factor is that prospects of 2012 are being discussed and discounted currently.

On a more fundamental note, since the revival of auto industry worldwide, Bharat Forge should start reporting healthy numbers going forward.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
IP IP Logged
khokhadream
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 24/Oct/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 159
Quote khokhadream Replybullet Posted: 03/Dec/2009 at 10:45pm
By 2014-15, more than 75% of BFL’s revenues will come from non-automotive businesses, especially through initiatives in power, oil and gas, marine transport, railways and aerospace sectors. “A double-digit growth for the Indian economy requires a major expansion of the capital goods sector to effectively feed an industrial upsurge. We aim at contributing to the growth of the capital goods sector in India,” says Baba Kalyani, chairman, BFL. It has garnered its most expansive plans in power sector.

Hi Basantji,
Considering this whats your take on this.
 - this company has very good management
 - from 2014 onwards the non-automotive revenue share will be 75% which appears to be huge. Also it will bring lot of stability to the revenues.
 - However I read somewhere there is chance of 10-12% equity dilution in future.
 - Comprehensive infrastructure play with strong and quality manufacturing
   capability.
 
   Basantji it would be great if you could share few thoughts about this company
IP IP Logged
basant
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Dec/2009 at 6:26am
Ordinary business; phenomenal management; focuses on RoE and cash flows. I missed it earlier this year because of its export linkages but I read that Rs 10,000 invested in 1979 has become close to Rs 1.7 crores!!!

'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
IP IP Logged
khokhadream
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 24/Oct/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 159
Quote khokhadream Replybullet Posted: 03/Dec/2009 at 6:48am
Thanks a lot Basantji,
this is about 28% CAGR and that too for a period of 30 years.
really impressive.

http://www.indiaabroad.rediff.com/money/2005/jun/13spec1.htm
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1657&specialid=62

Good articles about the company.
"Firstly, auto ancillary business has far more entry barriers than software services. What makes the auto ancillary tougher is that unlike in IT services, cost competitiveness alone is not the key driver - it is an extremely skill- and design-intensive industry. It takes a long time to develop competencies in this business.

Having developed the skill sets, put up capacities and established credentials with clients, it is only a matter of leveraging that strength for Bharat Forge.
In software services, business tends to be episodic where clients engagements tend to be on a project-by-project basis, depending on the requirements.
Secondly, Bharat Forge's business is more scaleable in the sense that the company can address a large size of business without much additional efforts. As scale builds up, the company could realise better economies of scale which may improve profitability significantly."

It seems entry barrier is quite phenomenal and bharat forge is scaling its business to other related areas.

It is looking very expensive at the moment but we have to take into account fate of GM and Ford which did the damage to Bharat Forge.
Once auto stabilizes and other revenue streams starts to chip in then we can have solid compounder once again


IP IP Logged
khokhadream
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 24/Oct/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 159
Quote khokhadream Replybullet Posted: 11/Feb/2010 at 12:11pm

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Bharat-Forge-to-raise-Rs-600-cr--QIP-soon/578663/


Can anybody comment on above development and its possible impact.
I am thinking of building long term position in this stock if it tumbles because of temporary development.

IP IP Logged
shontou
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 04/Aug/2011
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 865
Quote shontou Replybullet Posted: 11/Aug/2011 at 10:58am
Conference Call      
          Bharat Forge
Will focus to expand margins of overseas subsidiaries in 18 months


Bharat Forge held conference call on 10th Aug 2011 to discuss its performance for the quarter ended June 2011. The meeting was presided over by Mr. Amit B Kalyani - Executive Director, Mr. Sanjeev Joglekar – CFO and Mr. Mohan Sapre - Sr. VP (Finance)

Key Highlights from the Discussion
Despite the weakness abroad, the company has not yet received any indication of change in plans for its customers. Its major customers expect 30-40% growth this year.
It has lined up capex of Rs 200-250 crore per year in FY 12 and FY 13. It includes the capacity expansion of machining by 30-35%.
It plans to expand margins of international subsidiaries from single digit to double digit in next 18 months.
It plans to double the machining in non auto from current 30% in 1.5-2 years.
Expects the Alstom JV to start generating significant revenue from 2013.
It sources 20% of steel requirement from Kalyani Steel which has been shutdown.
The production grew by 24% to 52959 tonnes from 42643 tonnes in June 2010 quarter.
Exports grew by 67% driven by CV demand and improvement in non auto front in US and Europe.
Non auto business grew by 51% to Rs 284 crore in June 2011 quarter on ramp up of new plants and demand from domestic and exports across sectors. It constituted 37% of standalone topline. Significant position of non auto business is in India now. The share of India in non auto business would be 40% and 60% in overseas in 2-3 years time.
Contribution from new facilities to topline was Rs 161.50 crore, up by whopping 98%.
The capacity utilization of older plants was at average 78%, of new plants at 50% and of subsidiaries at 55%.
Net working capital as 30th June 2011 is Rs 590 crore.
Every day, self-proclaimed stock market "experts" tell us why the market just went up or down, as if they really knew. So where were they yesterday?
IP IP Logged
<< Prev Page  of 2
Post Reply Post New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



This page was generated in 0.031 seconds.
Bookmark this Page