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arunshah2k
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Quote arunshah2k Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 12:18pm
From my point of view, one should look at companies that can exist for atleast 5 years.

Now no one knows how serious this current crisis is going to be in the world. Maybe every crisis seems as bad as 1929 depression, but only time will tell how long this will last.

There is no point in a buying a midcap that shows growth only for 2-3 years and then collapses, because what we want is a company to exist with higher EPS/Profits at the time of the next bull run. I noticed that maximum money is made in midcaps at the start of a  bull run. Many midcaps went up 5-10-20 times from 2003 to 2004. This was to match their price with the current EPS and rerating to higher PE. Post 2004, prices increased as earnings increased.

Only a chosen few companies will have increase in stock prices in the bear phases, though there will be many that will show growth.

Originally posted by stockaddict

[QUOTE=basant]That is why one should buy cheap or else sell early if the purchase price isn't cheap.
 
 
Somehow when markets fall the error of not selling early isn't too big that is because all stocks fall so if one stock is down 65% and a solid bluechip with steady growth is down 50% the incremental loss isn't that big 
 
What would you prefer at this moment, a large cap bluechip say Axis bank  trading at PE of less than 10 , which may grow at 20-25% or a midcap which is trading at PE of 2-3 with expectation of  30-40% growth for next few years?
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 23/Jan/2009 at 6:55am
I prefer companies whose EPS can be predicted to grow over the next 2-3 years. Waiting endlesly is not an option.
 
 
Originally posted by stockaddict

Originally posted by basant

That is why one should buy cheap or else sell early if the purchase price isn't cheap.
 
 
Somehow when markets fall the error of not selling early isn't too big that is because all stocks fall so if one stock is down 65% and a solid bluechip with steady growth is down 50% the incremental loss isn't that big 
 
What would you prefer at this moment, a large cap bluechip say Axis bank  trading at PE of less than 10 , which may grow at 20-25% or a midcap which is trading at PE of 2-3 with expectation of  30-40% growth for next few years?
 
 
Yes, nice way of summarizing it. The mirage to get sucked in chasing growth and value is highest in these times as there is almost zero error for disappointment
 
Originally posted by kumardiwesh

The primary question is visibility of earnings and not rate of growth of earnings.
 
.
 
 


Edited by basant - 23/Jan/2009 at 7:01am
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kumardiwesh
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Quote kumardiwesh Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2009 at 3:00pm
Lot of mid-caps appear to be mighty cheap to me too.
But I've been asking myself the same question about earnings.
It's too difficult to know whether earnings would grow or not, forget at what rate.
If earnings fall aprt these companies would actually get more expensive even if they fall in price.
As Akash Prakash contends in his latest article, many companies that appeared to be secular growth stories in easy liquidity conditions are actually cyclical businesses.
Even if we want to buy them we should buy them after a few quarters of earnings disappointments.
These companies have negative cash flows and are tied to external factors for growth.
They don't grow through internal accruals.
"History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett
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aloksahi1971
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Quote aloksahi1971 Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2009 at 3:40pm

The case in point here is VISIBILITY OF EARNINGS at this juncture when the money supply is tight and sales look difficult projecting a earning figure will have a negative bias just as positive bias is inevitable on a sunny day.

There are some sectors that will grow like TITAN and some that have taken a beating like Real estate will bounce back.Most long term investors will look back at the charts some years down and see this fall as another trough in the upward spiral.But it is the once who are invested now who are having their coviction tested .
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HallaBol
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Quote HallaBol Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2009 at 6:29pm
This is great time to load companies with long term earning visibility, which are having near term trouble.


The future is never clear, you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cherry consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values. - Warren Buffet
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2009 at 7:37pm
Originally posted by aloksahi1971

Most long term investors will look back at the charts some years down and see this fall as another trough in the upward spiral.But it is the once who are invested now who are having their coviction tested .

 
So they will and all of us and use those charts for future sermons but the fact is 1 out of 1000 would be able to capitalise on it in foresight.Smile
 
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Quote arunshah2k Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2009 at 10:03pm
Originally posted by HallaBol

This is great time to load companies with long term earning visibility, which are having near term trouble.




And doing this, is the biggest challenge. How to identify companies that can turnaround in future, but having lots of issues now?
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 24/Jan/2009 at 8:58am
The key thing is to avoid getting disappointed.
 
I can give my example here. This fall has hurt everyone who had remain invested. So, there's nothing like I am better off and I am worse off etc. sort of a thing here.....however, you can regulate the level of panic you have in you. Thats perfectly manageable.
 
Firstly, adequately diversify. Dont become obssessed with a few companies. I have had disappointments with some companies like thirumalai Chemicals, Ultramarine chemicals, century enka, kanoria chemicals. Some have not performed as per my expectation like Goodyear, Voith Paper, Orient paper, Shipping Corporation etc. But, even then I have never felt dejected. Thats because, I have generally bought them by converting my profits elsewhere. Also, alongwith such disappointments, I have had made some wonderful switching to stocks like Castrol, HUL, BASF( which I subsequently converted to castrol), GlaxoConsumer, tata tea etc. So, diversification has helped me very much in managing my panic level.
 
Secondly, and most importantly try not to become extremely focussed on capital gains in the near term. Most of us just claim to be long term, but the moment we start losing big, we start showing our true colours. Always remember to make multibaggers, you have to first ensure that the bag size is small.
 
Thirdly, avoid this tendency of dreaming with eyes wise open. Always understand that the more widely held a stock is, the less probable is to make big money over there. Have the right sort of dreams at the right point of time. Have a bigger picture in mind, but have that picture at the right point of time. Retail will be a big theme, there's no doubt about that, but have that vision when P'loon was less than 50 coins a ticket. At 500 coins a ticket, you had everyone carrying that dream, that vision. The result is for everyone to see.
 
Also, try not to rely on other people's judgements. Everyone has a different sort of fund requirement, different risk appetite, different financial conditions. Whats good for a very risky person, may be fatal for a very conservative person. there's nothing more dangerous than borrowed conviction.
 
Lastly, and most importantly have that tenacity and stamina to fight back. Just think about it, even if you lost 60 p.c. , all you need is a 2.5 bagger to recoup all your losses. Thats not a big feat, when the tide turns. But set your sails correct to caitalise on that tide. Not everything will go up 2.5 times. Some may just continue to sink. Just get out of those sinking ships and wait out on a troubled but perfect ship, which will start sailing smoothly once the storm is over.
 
The key is to think, and think very smartly. Thats the best way to avoid getting disappointed.....
 
 
Jai Guru!!!
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