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Message Icon Topic: Is HPCL a Contrarian /Graham buy now? Post Reply Post New Topic
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rohitc99
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Quote rohitc99 Replybullet Posted: 20/Mar/2008 at 5:30am

no offense taken  Smile.. always good to hear a different view. would not learn from others if everyone agreed with me

following are the companies i like at their current prices
asian paints - long term holding
merck
novartis
grindwell norton
gujaratgas
allahabad bank - exited thanks to the loan writeoff
hpcl
ultramarine
concor
GSK consumer - saw it in your list, analysed it and liked it
cheviot
VST
Patni, NIIT tech - currently analysing
ashok leyland
 
I have analysed most of them and posted on my blog. feel free to share your opinion on these companies
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 20/Mar/2008 at 11:13am

Hi Rohit,

Good list....most of them I will like to be a shareholder in.
 
Coming to HPCL's case, I think its better to be with a pure refiner which gets a GRM rather than into a refining-cum-marketing company like an Indian Oil or a BP or a HP.
 
Was talking to dad a few days back regarding these OMCs, and i said awrong thing about Indian. he shot back immediately that isnt it a shame that India's largest company in listed domain is being treated like this. He says that those who talk wrong about Indian Oil should work out the scenario in case the company goes bust....
 
I understand thats not a good way of looking at things but his view has made me to rethink on my criticisms about Indian at least. These are not 300 crore turnover companies growing at 40 p.c. for first 5 years then at 30 p.c. for next 5 years and then maturing. These are perennial companies which will grow in topline at the rate at which the country grows.
 
Now as shareholders, returns may languish. But I see no way this company will not survive. The country needs this company.
 
this company may not be part of group here you can invest with worry-free. But those which are worry-free bets, are to be bought during bust period, when we get them at reasonable valuations.
 
I think, I can extend my opinion regarding Indian Oil to HP, BP as well....
 
Regards,
 
Vivek
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 6:05pm
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/businessline/blnus/14251506.htm
I am unable to make out as to whether I shall be happy with this news. The way this competitor has been made to surrender, is really mind-blowing.
 
 
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 6:12pm
Yes - force the competitor to close down by losing Rs. XXXX crores every year. But even if Indian Oil or HPCL or BPCL were to be a monopoly, they wouldn't have any pricing power. Then what's the point in being a monopoly or being responsible for closing down a competitor?
 
RIL will sell their wares elsewhere and rake in the money.
 
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 7:04pm
Can it be a good development for RIl. Now, they have to change the distillate structure in favour of complex distillates which may be carrying better margins.....no idea on such things, but I think its quite possible, right?
HP, BP, Indian may not enjoy pricing power but their importance is such that in case things go out of hand, mai-baap will always be ready to support them. Thats their biggest strength as well. I was so amzed to see their dividends when actually they are making losses on the main upstream products. 
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 11:13pm
All that Ambani has to do is press the button next to "Vaseline Petroleum Jelly" instead of the one next to "Petrol" to change the product mix from the refinery.
 
I'm looking forward to reading brokerage reports on RIL now. I'm quite sure all that real estate (derelict Reliance petroleum bunks) will have some SOTP value. Big%20smile
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 11:28pm
Originally posted by smartcat

All that Ambani has to do is press the button next to "Vaseline Petroleum Jelly" instead of the one next to "Petrol" to change the product mix from the refinery.
 
I'm looking forward to reading brokerage reports on RIL now. I'm quite sure all that real estate (derelict Reliance petroleum bunks) will have some SOTP value. Big%20smile
 
I have heard that Reliance prefers DODO( Dealer owned dealer Operate) model to COCO model( Company owned Company operate).So, god only knows Sum of the parts valuation.
 
Now you may press vaseline jelly instead of petrol, but the issue is the quantity you are refining and the output you require. If you produce too much of something which you or most importantly, the market doesnt require, you cant go ahead with such a distillation plan.
 
the only alternative is idling your capacity and maximising production of high margin distillates.
 
 
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gopal
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Quote gopal Replybullet Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 11:31pm
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

Can it be a good development for RIl. Now, they have to change the distillate structure in favour of complex distillates which may be carrying better margins.....no idea on such things, but I think its quite possible, right?
HP, BP, Indian may not enjoy pricing power but their importance is such that in case things go out of hand, mai-baap will always be ready to support them. Thats their biggest strength as well. I was so amzed to see their dividends when actually they are making losses on the main upstream products. 
 
Vivek bhai,
 
this subsidy may end after the next general elections due to following points ::--
  • The 60,000 crore loan write off will be paid in instalments through next 4 budgets ..... but already Sonia madam & her son are promising farmers in there speeches that loan waiver criteria should be further relaxed. On state run DD few days back Sonia madam even said that the new proposal is being considered by FM and news on additional loan waiver policy will come within few weeks.
  • The 6th may commission is being passed so late so enforcement effective date is 1st jan 2006 ..... so all central government employees will not only get pay hike but back log of about 2 years and some months ....... this was not provisioned in budget but FM said head room was left in budget to add this expenses ....... by the time the loan waiver is fully adjusted in budgets the 7th pay commision time will come ...
  • the petrol subsidies done by this government in last 3 - 4 years has not yet been reflected in budgetd but oil bonds have been issued to company with due payment dates ...... FM has promised that before he goes he will make provision for this expenses in budget .....

If we just look at above and also Manmohans new focus that subsidies should only be for bpl parties .... so subsidies will end in big way as soon as the next government comes in ..... simply because the NEXT FM EVEN IF IT CHIDAMBARAM WILL BE LEFT WITH NO OPTION ....



Edited by gopal - 25/Mar/2008 at 11:47pm
Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful
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