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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 3:50pm
Originally posted by smartcat

Heavy duty stuff! But this is difficult to understand for mathematically challenged individuals like me - so I am subscribing to this thread on the hopes of learning a bit more.
 
Smartcat This is easy just go through it and incase you find something a bit complex to understand I would try and put it a a bit more elaborately. But after i worked this out I felt like shouting "Eureka" LOL
 
 
Originally posted by tigershark

basant baba, 225 is it expensive or cheap?  if expensive sayYES otherwise sayNO
 
 
YES, but I wanted them to do a higher dilution. They did about 331 crores which is about 33% of their networth. 50% or more of the networth is enough to create magic.
 
See higher the extent of dilution higher the price to book would become post dilution.
 
 
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 5:08pm
maybe they want to first open 75 branches see how things pan out then dilute further at aHIGHER PRICEand finally take the number to 200+
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 6:44pm
Originally posted by tarkeshwar

The key assumption being made is that the bank will be able to maintain the same RoE after dilution. How are we sure of that?

 If this is true, the bank can keep on diluting ad infinitum, maintaining the same RoE and making its shareholders rich. At some point of time though it will fail to keep the same RoE. What are things to look for, which makes us confident that this is not the time it will fail to maintain the RoE -  is the crucial qus.

 
That is why we look at a track record of 5 years and not 5 quarters. Both Axis and HDFC bank have a long record of delivering high RoE. In the case of Axis the RoE  which drops just after equity dilution and picks up again in a few quarters.
 
So actually buying  bank just because it has diluted equity might backfire unless the management is smart and efficient enough when it comes to capital usage.
 
 
 In the above analysis, if you replace bank with xyz business, it still makes sense the same way. Banks being able to deploy the capital from 1st day does not seem to be "the" differentiating factor for roe maintenance. What is so special about bank business that will make them maintain the same roe with ease?
 
A media company that doubles its networth might not be able to find adequate avenues for high capital usage. A cement company doubling networth might add supply in the market which would create a overhang on prices; similar with a car company or a retail company which might not find it so easy to expand operations because logistics and delivery with front end stores is an issue.
 
Banks have no such problem. If I sign a loan amount for Rs 1000 crores the only logistics I need is to be able to go to the bank and actually execute the documents.
 
ALso additional resources does not create a glut because financial services is like perfect competition, one company cannot influence prices everyone is a price taker and not a price maker unlike other oligopolistic situations.
 
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Quote prashantmohta Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 6:57pm

bank analyst banne ke liye aur isse jyada kya jaroorat hai.

moreover basantji has taken 18 months as a yardstick,
 
TO PHIR BHAI LOG SAAL 2 SAAL ME 50% KA CHAKKA GHUMAYA JA SAKTA HAI.
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 8:31pm
This research is worth 1 crore Clap
 
See higher the extent of dilution higher the price to book would become post dilution.
------------------------------------------------
I would like to see higher P/BV bcoz these brokerage analysts reports and keep on revising their price targets!
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 10:28pm
Just like the spin off story this stategy should be used only for a select group of banks and though I stuck upon it earlier when I bought Axis I wanted to test whether prices actually went up since it seemed too simplistic a thought to implement.
 
As buffett said "Investing is simple but never easy".
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Quote MPD05 Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 11:27pm
Sounds very interesting, Basant.  The logic is intuitive.  However, one needs to look at what the sector as a whole did over the same period.

Over the same period (18/7 - 11/05), the Bank Nifty did 33%.   Moreover, almost all of these gains came from mid Sept. onwards.  What is interesting is the price appreciation pattern in HDFC is almost identical; almost all the gains accrued after mid Sept.

Interestingly, Axis bank not only out-performed the index by a substantial margin but also its gains started accruing from August itself.

My only question to you is whether the performance of Axis bank is capturing purely the size effect i.e., it is now being re-rated and being viewed as a high quality, top tier bank like HDFC Bank?

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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 08/Nov/2007 at 4:42am
In nutshell, I found that higher RoE is key (infact in any business). One of the bad argument which I get to understand with bank is they have to maintain certain Capital adequacy ratio. It means that to lend more & more, they need to raise capital (not cash) time to time, even if bank has mega profit, it cannot lend more unless Capital adequacy ratio is not met. Bank can use profit to give dividends, open more branches & venture into other financial business but they just can't lend more. So equity dilution is part of Bank's life.
Higher the dilution rate, better the case. It is very intuitive but Basant jee's mathematical model put it in right perspective.
So let's come back to original theme -> High RoE. A high RoE is subjected more to capable management than of sector/business. One can find excellent RoE companies in old economy sector and bad RoE in new high growth sectors. IBFSL made 173 Cr of profit last Q on capital of 22 *2 Cr , assuming 1:3 debt ratio (which I think very unlikely), RoE comes out to be 135%. One can compare it with other brokers. So one can calculate RoE of SAIL & Hindalco etc.
So all in all, if somebody finds solid management in sunrise sector, we cover almost everything under the sun.
-> solid management make sure high RoE.
-> sunrise sector ensures continued higher demand for diluted capital.
Financials are one sector where high RoE is relatively easier to achieve.
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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