| Author |
Message |
Mohan
Senior Member
Joined: 09/Feb/2007
Location: United States
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1855
|
   Posted: 25/Nov/2008 at 4:20am |
Originally posted by kumardiwesh
I really want to buy a cyclical...have resisted the temptation so far. |
Good, There is a feast available for you. Pick your industry.
Edited by Mohan - 25/Nov/2008 at 6:29am
|
|
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
|
 IP Logged |
|
|
|
 |
|
xbox
Senior Member
Joined: 10/Sep/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2001
|
Posted: 25/Nov/2008 at 9:50am |
|
Contra...if somebody wants to buy cyclical then time is nor far...(2-3 months away)..
|
|
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
India_Bull
Senior Member
Joined: 19/Sep/2006
Location: United States
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2296
|
Posted: 25/Nov/2008 at 10:03am |
Topic: Never buy a cyclical for the long term
Posted: Today at 9:50am By xbox |
|
Contra...if somebody wants to buy cyclical then time is nor far...(2-3 months away).. | Contra is a beautiful word !! I will not be surprised if MFs bring lot of new offers tagged with it. Do you suggest prices will coem down to 2 digits (Tisco),single digits to (Sesa goa, Hindalco?)
Next 2 quarters would be bad for commodities ( profits coming down sharply) howsoever staggered investment can be made ...
|
|
India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
subu76
Senior Member
Joined: 25/Feb/2008
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 5709
|
Posted: 01/Feb/2009 at 10:54am |
Hi BasantJi,
I'd like to borrow your mind on these two seemingly contrary thoughts which we often discuss on TED.
1. It's a cyclical. It will do well when the economy recovers.
2. It did well during the last bull market. It will not see it's old price for a long time. Implies this was a fad during the last bull market.
e.g. Aban
I think pt 1 is about EPS and pt 2 is about P/E.
Shouldn't pt 1 triumph over pt 2. After all earnings is the key?
How important is the fad value of point 2?
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
|
Posted: 01/Feb/2009 at 11:01am |
Excellent argument. But most of the time the rerating in PE never takes place because everyone and his brother is already invested. Ask anyone on the street whether he has bought into real estate and construction and the answer would tilt towards Yes,
Now these people look to get out when their price is reached and therefore PE Rerating is very diffcult and that is why it would take years for the EPS to come up and neutralise that effect.
|
|
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
subu76
Senior Member
Joined: 25/Feb/2008
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 5709
|
Posted: 01/Feb/2009 at 11:33am |
To restate Basant Sir's argument as i understood it.
PE rerating for yesterday's fallen angels is a difficult proposition.
I think this is what we saw with Infy.
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
|
Posted: 01/Feb/2009 at 11:43am |
|
Yes, once a sector shows lower growth then it takes years for the market to be convinced about the growth again.
|
|
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
|
Posted: 02/Mar/2009 at 6:11am |
Can someone send me the latest reports for Sesa Goa, Sterlite and Hindustan Zinc. Some report by a foreign broekarge comparing these to international companies would be better.
|
|
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
Active Topics
Memberlist
Calendar
Search
Help
Register
Login
