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 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Stock Synopsis
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EMANI
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Quote EMANI Replybullet Topic: NATIONAL STEEL &AGRO IND
    Posted: 13/Oct/2010 at 8:04am
National Steel and Agro Industries Ltd., an ISO 9001:2000 company, is a member of the Ruchi Group of Industries. They rank amongst the front-runners in the Indian Galvanized Steel industry commanding a significant market share.

With sales of over USD 300 millions and total tonnage shipment of 300,000 MT, They service customers across continents. Their products are well established in the USA, EU, UAE and African markets.

With consistent export achievements, They have gained the status of Star Trading House in exports.

  They produce flat steel products - CR Coils, Galvanized steel and Galvanized Color Coated steel products in various grades ranging from LFQ, DD, EDD as per ASTM, JIS and other standards.
     It has also got Agri. trading busines in pulses, beans and others with strong presence in Mynmar and Singapore.
       FINANCIALS:

         Eq. cap..................32.60 cr                   

         Sales....................492 cr (JUNE 2010)  vs.  419cr(JUNE 2009)


         N.P.......................7.81cr (JUNE2010) vs. 1.82 cr(JUNE2009)
       
         EPS.......................7.50(MAR2010)

         D/E Ratio..............1.47
   
         RONW...................19.41

         ROCE.....................23.55

                  The shares of the company are listed on both NSE &BSE and have a F.V of 10.

                  The shares are availble at CMP of 30 at a PE of 3.15 and the book value of the share is 45.
                  
                     I hope that the companies shares offer a good investment opportunity.
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EMANI
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Quote EMANI Replybullet Posted: 13/Oct/2010 at 9:04am
                                      2008               2009                   2010
                                       Rupees in crores--------------------------
Sales                           2264                  2223                 2312

 

  N P                             27.82             ( -)89                     25
 
PromoterHolding (INDIAN)..............................................48%

        "                  (FOREIGN)...............................................10%

              I  invite all the ted members  to express their views.


Edited by EMANI - 13/Oct/2010 at 9:12am
esn
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Jaishrikrishna
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Quote Jaishrikrishna Replybullet Posted: 13/Oct/2010 at 9:59am
288 CRS of debt which is higher than the M.CAP which is about 100 crs, reserves going down,Sales flat for last 3 years, so are the profits, margins are thin, any specific measures you applied for picking up this one?
Don't Buy and Hold, Buy and Homework / Fish see the bait,but not the hook; Men see the profit, but not the peril.
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EMANI
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Quote EMANI Replybullet Posted: 13/Oct/2010 at 10:04am
The main reason is turnaround , as seen plus  bouyancy insteel industry.The debt of 288cr is against a networth of 202cr.


Edited by EMANI - 13/Oct/2010 at 10:07am
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go4sheel
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Quote go4sheel Replybullet Posted: 14/Oct/2010 at 4:05pm
how about Ramsarup Industries...?
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 14/Oct/2010 at 1:02am
Originally posted by EMANI

              I  invite all the ted members  to express their views.
 
Ok...since you asked....I'll proffer my "considerable" wisdom Wink
 
If you're an expert on this company or on this sector....please do not read further....
 
If you're an aam aadmi like me...then one question that you might want to ask is if you're looking at peak earning or not......
 
These cycles etc are hard to guess and even the so called experts get it wrong all the time
 
My suggestion is that for such very marginal players in a very cyclical industry just average the earnings over a cycle (right now the last 5 years would do) and apply a sensible multiple where you can't lose at all...... (maybe 2-3 times average earning or 1 time highest earning). Please sell after a 50%-100% rise or after 2 years and move to other such cheap offerings from the market.
 
Also, please diversify across companies....
 
It's important to buy such companies like you buy vegetables.....
I got good results when i followed that policy.
The biggest mistakes i made were when i mistook peak earnings and thought the multiple seems low. Also, i had underestimated the impact of a lot of debt in the balance sheet.
 
Also, it might be a good idea to offer an even lower multiple for a debt laden company in a cyclical industry 
 
This is what i read in books and what seems to have worked somewhat for me. Buying cheap works but it gets so boring and is so mundane that we all try to innovate. Cry 
 
Wish you all the best


Edited by subu76 - 14/Oct/2010 at 1:11am
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excel_monkey
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Quote excel_monkey Replybullet Posted: 11/Nov/2010 at 7:24am
The larger steel products players like Bhushan Steel have zoomed
I think that National Steel could be a takeover target as steel is not the core business of Ruchi group and would be sold out eventually

Originally posted by subu76

Originally posted by EMANI

              I  invite all the ted members  to express their views.

 

Ok...since you asked....I'll proffer my "considerable" wisdom Wink

 

If you're an expert on this company or on this sector....please do not read further....

 

If you're an aam aadmi like me...then one question that you might want to ask is if you're looking at peak earning or not......

 

These cycles etc are hard to guess and even the so called experts get it wrong all the time
 

My suggestion is that for such very marginal players in a very cyclical industry just average the earnings over a cycle (right now the last 5 years would do) and apply a sensible multiple where you can't lose at all...... (maybe 2-3 times average earning or 1 time highest earning). Please sell after a 50%-100% rise or after 2 years and move to other such cheap offerings from the market.

 

Also, please diversify across companies....

 

It's important to buy such companies like you buy vegetables.....

I got good results when i followed that policy.

The biggest mistakes i made were when i mistook peak earnings and thought the multiple seems low. Also, i had underestimated the impact of a lot of debt in the balance sheet.

 

Also, it might be a good idea to offer an even lower multiple for a debt laden company in a cyclical industry 

 

This is what i read in books and what seems to have worked somewhat for me. Buying cheap works but it gets so boring and is so mundane that we all try to innovate. Cry 

 

Wish you all the best
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pkumar
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Quote pkumar Replybullet Posted: 11/Nov/2010 at 11:23am
Great Suggesstions. I also recommend staying away from cyclicals especially Steel and cement for making short term profits
"The news is always a mix of positive and negative. When markets decline, people point to the negative news; and when it increases, the positive news is emphasized." - Bob Farrell
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