Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  CalendarCalendar  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin

Stock Synopsis
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Stock Synopsis
Message Icon Topic: Apar Industries - a wonderful WB type bet Post Reply Post New Topic
Page  of 8 Next >>
Author Message
manish_okhade
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 20/Oct/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1997
Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Topic: Apar Industries - a wonderful WB type bet
    Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 3:32pm
Apar industries:
 
Apar industries is what Savitha Chemicals does. I am not wasting the space here by repeating, one can easily check post on Savitha Chemicals for more details.  Apar manufactures transformer cooling oils and condtion wires.
 
Its the promising valuation which i would like to share below:
 
CMP:   170
PE:      103 based on FY08-09 EPS
MCap: 550 Cr
Debt/Equity: 0.27
Free reserve/share: 72/-
                                            FY09      FY08            FY07        FY06          FY05
Net Profit / Loss   5.31  85.47  45.97  42.92  30.19
 
Business model: Apar imports the crude oil and after processing sales it to power companies. Power sector needs speciality oils as routine replacement so demand is continuous. Moreover power sector is opening up so in long run, demand for oil and conductor wires will definitly increase.
 
Business Risk: Heavily dependant on crude oil rates.
 
Valuations: As shown in above, Apar is a consistant profi grower except FY 09. Last year due to crash of crude oil price, Apar is forced to sale the inventory at lower rates which resulted in huge reduction of profit. But surprisingly sale was still higher than FY 08 that means it would been stupendous had oil price wouldnt have crashed.
 
Now Apar has inventory for FY 10 at reduced price plus crude has stablized too but much up from last year. Its resulted in last 2 qtrs giving good philip to the EPS. For last 2 qtrs EPS basis PE is 11.7 and assuming that its sustained or even lower still its safe to assume the full FY 10 EPS would be close to 20 which gives PE of 170/20 = 8.5 and it by any means cheap. But if growth continues then at best case EPS of 30 results in PE os 5.2!!!
 
Recently focus is shifting to small/mid cap because large cap is overvalued. Apr is good candidate for re-rating.
 
 
 
IP IP Logged
hit2710
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 15/Jun/2009
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 4013
Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 6:22pm
The negative thing about this company was that it was carrying forward some derivatives losses in its hedges (probably for aluminium) which was around 133 crores in May09. Dont know if that issue had been addressed till date.

Management had bought the stock by truckloads when markets went down and now they seem to be sitting pretty. One thing I have observed is that whenever promoters are consistently buying shares from market, usually they know something which the market/investors like us dont know and so if the big picture looks good, we can load up on the stock.

Subu was tracking this company closely, so subu, any inputs?
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
IP IP Logged
CHINKI
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 07/Feb/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2827
Quote CHINKI Replybullet Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 9:09pm
As far as I remember, they were also making Lubricating Oils.

They do not import crude oil (only refiners like IOCL, Reliance, BPCL does that) but base oil which is raw material for making Lubricants including Transformer oil.
TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
IP IP Logged
shivkumar
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 02/Oct/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2037
Quote shivkumar Replybullet Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 12:10pm
trailing P/e of 103!!!!
IP IP Logged
manish_okhade
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 20/Oct/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1997
Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 9:12am
Originally posted by shivkumar

trailing P/e of 103!!!!
 
Yes, its because FY 09 EPS was very low due to lower profit bacause of drop in crude oil price. Its an aberration hence stock looks expensive, thats the catch, if you check EPS of last 2 qtrs (14.51)  then you will get real picture. In order to get any profir you need to wait till next 2 qtrs.
IP IP Logged
Crimsonarcher
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Oct/2006
Location: United States
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 355
Quote Crimsonarcher Replybullet Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 9:48am
Its not a WB stock for the following reasons
1) You've already mentioned its similar to Savita Chemicals, so unless this is better than savita and has a stronger competitive advantage, there is nothing spl about this. While Coke and Pepsi might be in the same industry, people first prefer Coke and then pepsi because of the taste. Hence WB bought Coke and not pepsi as everything else can be replicated.
2) WB invests such that irrespective of what happens, the stock would continue to hold its value well into the future, while returning over his threshold 20% returns. Can this do it for the next 10 years irrespective of where oil prices go?? I don't think so.
3) Deep franchise. Does it have it? They might be in a good industry, but does it have a deep franchise say for example like Moody's or Crisil? Their services would always be needed, at the price as recommended by Moody's or Crisil so they can always be profitable.
IP IP Logged
manish_okhade
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 20/Oct/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1997
Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 04/Jan/2010 at 10:56am
Apar is not a WB stock in terms of long term investment for reasons well articulated above. Apart from long term investment, at times WB has used his strong weapon called as arbitrage. Not only this during boom time WB has purchased many utilities and other smaller businesses too.
 
My simple point is that Apar looks fair to buy based on valuations and business fundamentals. There are very few competitors and demand is constant (Power sector always need oil and cables). Due one time profit reduction stock is decimated but fundamentals are remain intact. Apar has good order bookings too as per their recent AR.
IP IP Logged
sainivas
Groupie
Groupie
Avatar

Joined: 26/Jun/2007
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 72
Quote sainivas Replybullet Posted: 05/Jan/2010 at 10:07pm
Profits in FY09 affected due to MTMs and high fluctuations.
 
For instance with transformer oil, lube oils: when price drops suddenly the customers want the new prices, so one is screwed with the entire inventory chain.
 
When crude prices were shooting through the roof, Apar had hedged ie brought forward quantities and locked in at the high prices.
 
All this has come to an end early this year.
 
It has a fantastic franchise, it share of the transformer oil has been retained at 50%...if that is not a moat what else is? 
 
The aluminium conductor business : it is no 2 here. Reasonable (not humungous) advantages of scale and prior bidding references.
 
 
Huge advantage is the clean management. With one or two quarters of good performance, that is likely to happen by the March quarter ...the stock will be re rated. Have patience.....for a little longer..say 2 to 3 quarters.
 
 
Agey Dekho
IP IP Logged
Page  of 8 Next >>
Post Reply Post New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



This page was generated in 0.172 seconds.
Bookmark this Page

Join Theequitydesk.com Today!

It’s easy to Join and it’s free.

Here's why members would love to be a part of theequitydesk.com

  • Equity Desk focuses on why to buy shares and invest in share rather than what to buy.
  • Live discussion forum wherein members can discuss the current Indian share Market trend, BSE Sensex or the Nifty Index.
  • Have huge cache of information on Indian and World Share Market.
  • Analysis of Indian stock market, Global events, Investing insights, portfolio management strategies and thoughts,
  • Meet investors from round the globe check their investing strategies share experiences and learn for their experiences on stocks and shares, evaluate opinions on investing in India.

Register now while it’s free!

Already a member? Close this window and log in.

Join Us           Close