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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: Business Moats - Barriers to entry!
    Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 4:54pm
 But costing is their moat 
 
I think the trigger lies in this line. Moat does not always mean a big brand it could also mean lower costs; A steel company with a iron ore mine is very different froma pure converter of iron ore to steel, normally price of steel goes up because price of the ore has gone up but markets start ramping up all steel stocks similarily we need to consider where the moat in term sof costing is coming from if it is from. Is it resource based or conversion based? Sometimes companies own a lot of cash and save on interest costs that kind of a moat is temporary!!!
 
Can you specify the commodity this company is into and where is the moat coming from?
 
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Janak.merchant1
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 5:06pm
Originally posted by basant

 But costing is their moat 
 
I think the trigger lies in this line. Moat does not always mean a big brand it could also mean lower costs; A steel company with a iron ore mine is very different froma pure converter of iron ore to steel, normally price of steel goes up because price of the ore has gone up but markets start ramping up all steel stocks similarily we need to consider where the moat in term sof costing is coming from if it is from. Is it resource based or conversion based? Sometimes companies own a lot of cash and save on interest costs that kind of a moat is temporary!!!
 
Can you specify the commodity this company is into and where is the moat coming from?
 
 
Moat in terms of costing is coming from the technical expertise of the promoters.  Many times, first generation enterpreneurs put in their life time of efforts - work - energy in managing their factories.
 
I will give u one more example. I was in Amara Raja's factory few years back and we talked about capex plans. Whatever they told me i was not readily accepting that. I was  wrogly anchoring my thoughts by comparing it with Exide on the same parameters. That was a big mistake on my part.
 
Then when comparing their cost per unit with Exide, they said that they do not understand why Exide's project cost was so high. JAydev Galla told me at the airport that theirs wud be the lowest cost produced battery as far as indian market was concerned. I saw their infrastructure ten years back. Everything was too good.
 
They also in past had lots of cash but dividend ratio was not good.
 
Your view Pl.
 
Best wishes,


Edited by Janak.merchant1 - 23/Feb/2008 at 5:21pm
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 5:32pm
Originally posted by basant

 But costing is their moat 
 
I think the trigger lies in this line. Moat does not always mean a big brand it could also mean lower costs; A steel company with a iron ore mine is very different froma pure converter of iron ore to steel, normally price of steel goes up because price of the ore has gone up but markets start ramping up all steel stocks similarily we need to consider where the moat in term sof costing is coming from if it is from. Is it resource based or conversion based? Sometimes companies own a lot of cash and save on interest costs that kind of a moat is temporary!!!
 
Can you specify the commodity this company is into and where is the moat coming from?
 
 
I attended one lecture few days back and that person told us that branding on its own is not enough to generate value.
 
Branding without moat is not imp. And building moat is very very difficult.
 
It takes years of efforts and in many cases is illussory. Many times what appears to be margin of safety is a value or growth trap.
 
Creative destruction is many times a destructive creation. Think about Nano. OEMs are scared that Ratan will come out with other variants in high end now as soon as their Nano is stabilised. He just changed rules of the auto industry.
 
U r right that many times moat is temporary. Sometimes many factors combined becomes a moat. And protecting moat is also very difficult. But once u get to that level u have lots of flexibility. Coke and Gillete come to my mind. Here Fevicol is in the same league.
 
Best wishes
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 5:36pm
Originally posted by basant

 But costing is their moat 
 
I think the trigger lies in this line. Moat does not always mean a big brand it could also mean lower costs; A steel company with a iron ore mine is very different froma pure converter of iron ore to steel, normally price of steel goes up because price of the ore has gone up but markets start ramping up all steel stocks similarily we need to consider where the moat in term sof costing is coming from if it is from. Is it resource based or conversion based? Sometimes companies own a lot of cash and save on interest costs that kind of a moat is temporary!!!
 
Can you specify the commodity this company is into and where is the moat coming from?
 
 
Dear Basant,
 
If costing is the only moat then we better be careful. Somewhere in China, somebody will set up a factory, manufacture low cost items, get subsidies and start selling at no profit basis.
 
If the company in question is able to sell in the Chinese market, then we shud pay attention. I am at presnt holding very very small quantity of that company.
 
I feel lower cost comes due to a combination of few factors not usually visible on the annual report.
 
Best wishes,
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 6:33pm
Technical expertise of promoters act as moat only in service industries or businesses that need innovation. For example in a steel company there is little that a management can add in terms of moat and more is dependent on location raw material proximity to market etc unlike a microsoft or an infy. About the china factor that is a threat but in this case transport costs act as moat. There is a cement company shree cement that has grow on the basis of low cost advantage on power consumption and because of freight that advantage was protected. So as you say there are really several aspects to a moat and low cost is one of then but dependent on other factors.
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 6:42pm
Originally posted by basant

Technical expertise of promoters act as moat only in service industries or businesses that need innovation. For example in a steel company there is little that a management can add in terms of moat and more is dependent on location raw material proximity to market etc unlike a microsoft or an infy. About the china factor that is a threat but in this case transport costs act as moat. There is a cement company shree cement that has grow on the basis of low cost advantage on power consumption and because of freight that advantage was protected. So as you say there are really several aspects to a moat and low cost is one of then but dependent on other factors.
 
Yes Basant, Where innovation is required, technical expertise is of utmost importance. No doubt about it.
 
Best wishes


Edited by Janak.merchant1 - 23/Feb/2008 at 6:43pm
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by Janak.merchant1

 
Very interesting situation but even in listed companies the problems originate because:
 
1) The deal to sell off land is not transparent i.e. you take some in cash some in cheque kind of stuff.
 
2) The Management might not give a one time dividend but continue to hold the cash. In that case company becomes cash rich instead of shareholders. For example Trent has maintained a Rs 100 per cash on its balance shjeet for the last 5-7 years!!!
 
3) Once this cash has been received the management might take up new diversification programs and that comes witha gestation so that is not why interested parties would have bought a stcok.
 
4) Shareholders are most uncomfotable when companies hold cash a cash equivalent can get a RoE of 9% only so putting a PE of 9 (growth) to this cash equivalent the final value is 81%  which means that cash in balance sheet is always valued at lower of what it is and companies appears cheap! Ouch
 
Best way to unlock value is the simplest which never gets done it entails:
a) Buy back shares from open market with cash received.
b) Declare a one time dividend with the money received.
 
We can discuss companies that hold cash on balance sheet here!
[/QUOTE]
 
Dear Basant, Trent will have to hold that cash for their future expansion. Same is the case i feel is with 3M. 3 M has plans to set up manufacturing base here when they get enough volumes. Otherwise it does not make sense to manufacture here. And they do not want to borrow at the time of expansion.
 
Management has to look at things differently. What you said abt lack of transparency in RE deals is fact which we have to accept.  You are also right abt co becoming rich and not shareholders as there might not be one time dividend etc. So our view as outside investors wud be different than the promoters. I agree with you abt what u have stated.
 
So basically we are at the mercy of their decisions. But if u know what they r doing, then to a certain extent we can make out what thay are doing with cash. I am refering to honest managements. Who are holding majority of the shares and are shareholder oriented.
 
Lets us c this situation: The real one. Capacity 6000 tonnes, about five years back. Free cash flows all these years. Cash accumulated and invested in MFs. Capacity has slowly been built up from 6000 to 40000 recently during 2007-8. All the cash accumulated has now been put to use for the core business expansion. Share was quoted 24 when i bought it. It went down to 18. Now 150.  All these past five six years, co kept on accumulating cash. I recommended them to go for buy back as market was not realising that intrinsic value was going up. Not becoz of cash getting accumulated but capacity was silently being ramped up without getting reflected on the A Report. Co did not want to borrow funds for their aggressive expansion plans.
 
They are targetting 200 crores sales within next two years. Capital is 6.5 crores. Products to a great extent are commodity type. But costing is their moat. MArgins will be under pressure as they also do not expect to maintan them. Now coming to the right point, they do not have any need for capex as their capacities have already been enhanced to the desired levels. So on 200 crores sales, if they make 8 % at the net levels, it wud mean 16 cr profits. Free cash flows are imp factor here. Since no major capex is expected, they do not need it, cash wud again go up.
 
How do u view this business developments? Wud u invest in this co tho products are of commodity nature? They have 12% all india market share. With added capacity that wud go up. Market share is not imp but it just gives idea abt the small overall market.
 
Your view wud be highly appreciated.
 
Best wishes,
 
 
 
 
 
 
[/QUOTE]
 
Are you talking about plastiblends here????? Mr. merchant, i generally dont look beyond three pages of Annual report to base my decisions, but sometimes I get into a stock for the management as well. If the company you were talking is indeed Plastiblends, then I think you should attach a good deal to the management quality. I came to know Plastiblends through the Annual report of Kabra extrusiontechnik, and Kabra was the first company I did an independent analysis in my undergraduate days. this company has done everything in creating 'value' for its shareholders, and i think Plastiblends should also go on its way..... 
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2008 at 4:43am
 
[/QUOTE]
 
Are you talking about plastiblends here????? Mr. merchant, i generally dont look beyond three pages of Annual report to base my decisions, but sometimes I get into a stock for the management as well. If the company you were talking is indeed Plastiblends, then I think you should attach a good deal to the management quality. I came to know Plastiblends through the Annual report of Kabra extrusiontechnik, and Kabra was the first company I did an independent analysis in my undergraduate days. this company has done everything in creating 'value' for its shareholders, and i think Plastiblends should also go on its way..... 
[/QUOTE]
 
Yes Vivek.
 
It is Plastiblends.
 
I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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