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Message Icon Topic: Benefiting from the agri boom in India? Post Reply Post New Topic
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ThinkDifferent
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Quote ThinkDifferent Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2008 at 12:29pm
I found this interesting article in the Economist. It talks about which parts of the country will be affected how much by a recession. It says:

>> Move inland from the coasts and away from the industrial Midwest, however, and the picture, for now, looks less grim. A belt running from Texas north-west across the Great Plains and the Rocky Mountains has been doing particularly well, thanks to soaring exports and high commodity prices. Ethanol subsidies and “agflation” have brought a bonanza to the farm states. Agricultural exports are up almost 20% compared with 2006, while farm incomes are growing smartly. Extractive industries are booming. Miners find it worthwhile to dig for copper in Butte, Montana, even though the operators say it is the worst-grade ore in the world. These states now have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. With far less of a housing boom, they have also avoided the worst of the subprime bust.


http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10650727

I guess the same thing will happen in India, where agricultural sector will do well even if  India is affected by the american and global slow down.
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Quote ThinkDifferent Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2008 at 12:33pm
Marc Faber and Jim Rogers have been telling us that after the Industrial Commodities, now it is the turn of Agricultural commodities or soft commodities like Coffee, Cotton, Sugar, Orange Juice, grains, pork belly etc to boom. They have been telling that the boom in commodities is likely to last for many more years.

I feel agricultural sector currenty provides us the oppurtunities to enter it very early in the bull phase.
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Quote ThinkDifferent Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2008 at 12:36pm
I have a lot of relatives who are into agriculture. They were struggling a lot around 3 years ago. But what i now notice is that they are doing a lot better now and own Dish TV, mobiles, 2-wheelers and buying cars, tractors etc.

Prices of dry and wet farm land has doubled and is still going up. Prices of coffee plantation has been a 4 bagger in the last 5 years.
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2008 at 10:19am
StanChart Mutual Fund too is bullish in the Agriculture space. Take a look at their portfolio and pick the one in which you have the conviction.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2008 at 10:30am
Originally posted by deveshkayal

StanChart Mutual Fund too is bullish in the Agriculture space. Take a look at their portfolio and pick the one in which you have the conviction.
 
Devesh......please do post here about their holdings.
 
On a side note, now let's hope that some farmers who were glued to CNBC Awaaz for day trading tips go back to their farms for productive work.
 
 
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 08/Feb/2008 at 10:55am
I can find Kaveri Seed from their best performing fund.
 
The company will do an EPS of 14.5 in FY08 and their Profit is growing at over 100%. So we can expect an EPS of 29 in FY09. At CMP of 300, it is trading at a PE of less than 10.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 09/Feb/2008 at 3:22am
As more than half of the country relies on agriculture for a living, boom in agriculture will bring widespread benefit to the masses and spur consumption. This is very good for the markets. 
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 12/Feb/2008 at 6:20pm
Slightly out of context but still ....
 
 
When he has a ready crop, Dnyaneshwar Nikam’s day would often start with a phone call, typically to the local wholesale agricultural produce marketing committee (APMC) market, which has for decades been the only wholesale buyer of his produce.
 
These days, his phone list is a lot longer. It includes officials of Godrej Agrovet Ltd, Aditya Birla Retail Ltd and Reliance Retail Ltd and he carefully compares prices before promising delivery of his ripe but unharvested crop that day.
 
Nikam, who has a 10-acre farm in Pune’s Ranjani village, has heard Subhiksha Trading Services Ltd may also start buying from around here and is excited because, he says, “The more companies there are, the better it is for us because we can choose where we will get better rates and want to sell our produce.”
 
The next day, when the Godrej officials land up at his farm, Nikam makes sure he lets them know that Birla offered Rs7 for a kg of cucumber and ITC offered him Rs8 for it, while Godrej offered just Rs6 the previous day. The key to selling to modern retail is to ensure that he sells to more than one retailer, he says. But also letting them know that.
 
Nikam grows tomatoes, watermelons, onions, brinjals, capsicum and chillies on his farm, apart from oranges and chickoos. He sold several of these vegetables to Godrej the previous day.
 
Driving past the procurement offices that dot that landscape around rural Pune’s vegetable farming strip, it is clear that change is in the air.
 
For the first time in India’s history, modern retailers are offering farmers a choice of a buyer other than the traders at government-controlled APMC markets.
 
“There are immense benefits from direct sourcing and price is probably the least of them,” says Balram Yadav, executive director of Godrej Agrovet, which has been buying in the area for four years. “There is a substantial benefit in being able to get good quality stuff that we can get all year round, which we don’t have to grade a lot.”
 
“Modern retail offers a good possibility for farmers, but it will not automatically benefit farmers,” says S. Sivakumar, chief of ITC Ltd’s agribusiness, which also buys vegetables in this area for its Choupal Fresh stores. “The natural instinct of a retailer is to squeeze a farmer. We need a business model that will be a win-win situation for all, which is a precondition for farmers to benefit.”
 
So, farmers are also themselves trying several models, apart from selling directly to retailers or APMCs to benefit from modern retail.
 
 
 
 
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