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MANI
Newbie
Joined: 10/Jan/2008
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Posts: 26
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   Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 1:38pm |
DEAR BASANT SIR,
THERE IS A LOT OF NOISE ON TV CHANNELS REGARDING US & ASIAN ECONOMIES GOING INTO RECESSION AND THAT WILL LEAD TO WORLDWIDE BEAR MARKET INCLUDING INDIA.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND ANY OF ECONOMICS. WHAT IS YOUR VIEW? SHOULD I STAY INVESTED OR SELL ALL STOCKS AND BE IN CASH?
MANI
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basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 18403
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Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 3:23pm |
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Thankfully I have been away from Tv for the past 2 weeks. Firstly everyone has a right to an opinion but few get it right. Lynch and buffett said that economic forecasts tell more about the forecaster then the forecasts that thex make. As always my mantra is to check whether the stocks that I own collectively sell at less then 15 times fy 10 with at least 30 to 40pc cagr. Also we need to check whether the growth in the companies that we own are dependent on any cyclical factors. If all this matches then it makes sense to hold onto the stocks and ignore all dooms day prediction. But in these challenging times many first time young, adventurous, impatient investors will be wiped out.
Edited by basant - 28/Jan/2008 at 8:36pm
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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BubbleVision
Senior Member
Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 3142
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Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 3:49pm |
I don’t understand why people confuse Economics and Stock Markets and thereoff’s .
Macro-Economics is used for the “Fixed Income” and the “Currencies” world. It also helps in Stock markets, however that is only limited to “Stock Indices” and NOT individual stocks.
For individual stocks (especially mid-cap), one needs “Micro-Economics” i.e. Research of individual companies.
Buffett and Lynch said that about Economists because they were from stock markets. Many sucessful Economists have said similar things about stock punters!!!
At the time of Iraq war in 1991, the stock punters were afraid that interest rates would rise because of the Oil spike. However, Economists and Greenspan saw a recession and hence Oil plunging due to demand crapping out. Greenspan cut rates. Therefore stock punters have a very very bad record.
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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kulman
Senior Member
Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 9319
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Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 8:17pm |
Originally posted by basant
....in these challenging times many dirt time young, adventurous, impatient investors will be wiped out. |
Absolutely. Especially some players who were trapped in F&O wouldn't be able to stand up straight again for many years.
Isn't WB bang on when he says that Stock Market is a device for transfering money from impatient to the patient.
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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Mohan
Senior Member
Joined: 09/Feb/2007
Location: United States
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Posts: 1855
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Posted: 28/Jan/2008 at 11:22pm |
The problem with WB's strategy is that it does not provide excitement to people only earnings. People find it very boring to buy good companies at attractive valuations and hold on forever. Yaha to Annual Report padne ke liye kiske paas time hai. Yaha to tip batao ? Kauna chalenga abhi The impatient then become doctors patient. 
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Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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deveshkayal
Senior Member
Joined: 04/Sep/2006
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Posts: 3903
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Posted: 01/Jul/2008 at 3:32pm |
Seems like ULIPs sales have picked up in May after a lull in April. LIC is losing market share. Figures from IRDA site:
Individual Single premium: 971 crs
Individual Non-Single premium: 3021.61 crs
Group Single premium: 1075 crs
Group Non-Single premium: 271.32 crs
Wonder how much from these has been invested in markets !
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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Invest_in_India
Senior Member
Joined: 23/Mar/2008
Location: United Kingdom
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 307
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Posted: 01/Jul/2008 at 4:25pm |
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On June 27, 2008, FIIs were net sellers of
stocks to the tune of Rs746.20 crore (purchases worth
Rs3,348.60 crore and sales of Rs4,094.70 crore) while domestic
mutual funds were net buyers of stocks to the tune of Rs4.20
crore (purchases worth Rs772.80 crore and sales of Rs768.70
crore).
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Cheers,
Raj
"Que sera, sera,
Whatever will be, will be;
The future's not ours to see.
Que sera, sera,
What will be, will be.
Que Sera, Sera!"
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paragdesai
Senior Member
Joined: 22/Oct/2007
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 837
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Posted: 01/Jul/2008 at 4:49pm |
FII have sold 4500 Cr worth more shares in June 2008 then May 2006. But still they are heavily invested in India. But note that this is the longest negative trend for FII started from Jan 08 till June 08.
New Investment from FII through PNOTES were ban from OCT07 or NOV07. This may be the reason? I am no expert at this.
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