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sayonee
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Quote sayonee Replybullet Posted: 07/Jan/2008 at 4:21pm
is it then fair to say that universal banks like ICICI and SBI - whose portfolio includes retail banking, corporate banking, insurance, broking, AMC etc. - will be in an advantageous position to leverage on this savings glut
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Quote Ajith Replybullet Posted: 07/Jan/2008 at 4:41pm
   Mr. Basant,I too was struck by this piece of statistics I read last week about the rise in savings from 23 to 33 percent in the last 6 years.Rise in corporate savings iand government dissavings(cut in expenditure) were explanations.This too will help banks directly and as you said perhaps the steady growers we all know about and the finance stocks in general will do well.
Side by side even private consumption is growing(helping domestic consumption)which is offset by the rise in corporate savings.

Edited by Ajith - 07/Jan/2008 at 4:41pm
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Jan/2008 at 4:48pm
Originally posted by sayonee

is it then fair to say that universal banks like ICICI and SBI - whose portfolio includes retail banking, corporate banking, insurance, broking, AMC etc. - will be in an advantageous position to leverage on this savings glut
 
The spill over gets more into the non rural belt so the bigger private banks would grow faster - at least that is what I am betting on also their business model is non cyclical unlike the models of Kotak Bank or the others which are dependent on the the capital markets.But yes, if the capital markets do well the returns may be higher in business models that are linked to equity markets.
 
I recommend, hold and prefer Axis Bank and then HDFC bank.
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Quote nitin_jagtap Replybullet Posted: 07/Jan/2008 at 5:54pm
Friends another inetresting article on the wealth management space.
 
India to become trillion-dollar wealth management market by 2012
livemint.com: January 7, 2008
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According to a report the wealth management market in India will have a target size of 42 million households by 2012, as against just about 13 million in 2007

New Delhi: Indians will have one trillion dollars worth investable wealth by 2012, with the country's robust economic growth driving a four-fold surge from just about 250 billion dollars in 2007.

According to a report by international consultancy firm Celent, India is set to become a huge hunting ground for wealth managers with the number of their potential clients and size of manageable wealth both expected to grow four-times through 2012.

The wealth management market will have a target size of 42 million households by 2012, as against just about 13 million in 2007, noted the report titled 'Overview of the Wealth Management Market in India'.

"The wealth management sector is poised to witness tremendous growth. India's economic growth is making larger sections of the population prospective customers of wealth management providers," Celent said.

The growth would be seen across all income-levels, but the lower-income segment would record the maximum growth in terms of volume, while high-networth households would contribute the most in terms of wealth size, it noted.

Celent has defined a household with a minimum income of $5,000 (Rs2 lakh) as the lowest end of the target market for wealth managers, while one with at least $30 million (Rs120 crore) of investable income has been put in the category of ultra-high net worth.

The market would see different products being launched for catering to different client segments, Celent's banking practice and author of the report Ravi Nawal said.

"There is an increasing momentum towards structure in this previously chaotic domain. We should expect some very India specific innovations in the near future," Nawal added.

The market is currently dominated by unorganized players, whose share is 1.5 times that of the organized market. However, a structural change is taking place and organized players are drawing clients away from the unorganized players.

Wealth management revenues are expected to contribute 32-37% of the total revenue of full-service financial institutions by 2012, Celent said.

According to the report, mass-market (Rs2-10 lakh of disposable income) would be a key driver, accounting for 40% of the overall growth in the number of households.

A majority of wealth managers, except niche players, would target the mass market because of its youth-dominance and this market would see more service providers entering the fray with a ‘own them young’ policy.

The ultra-high net worth households with wealth in excess of $30 million would have a total population of 10,500 households by 2012, while the super high net worth households ($10-30 million) are expected to grow to 42,000.

The population of high net worth households ($1-10 million) would grow to 3,20,000, while there would be 3,50,000 households in the super-affluent category (Rs50-400 lakh).

Besides, 10 lakh new households would join mass-affluent category (Rs10-50 lakh), taking their population to 18 lakh by 2012. However, a vast majority of 39 million households, out of the total 42 million target market population in 2012, would belong to the mass market (Rs2-10 lakh).

Private banks, independent financial advisors and full service brokerages would serve the high networth segment, while ultra high networth households would be served by private banks and family offices.

 
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Quote getmanoj Replybullet Posted: 07/Jan/2008 at 9:20pm
For some time now, the talks are going about investing a small % of Employee Provident Fund to market linked investments. The total amount these EPF have is too big. Even if a small % of that amount comes to market, It might add some value for Financial companies. I think SBI will gin more in this case.

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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 07/Jan/2008 at 9:38pm
I think SBI will gin more in this case.
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Quote nitin_jagtap Replybullet Posted: 07/Jan/2008 at 7:51am

Yes the talk about PF money coming into the markets has been doing the rounds for quite some time now , even if say 5% of the money comes it will be a big push to the liquidity in the market , my sense is that select PSU stocks will be gainers once PF money comes into the market.

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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 07/Jan/2008 at 10:58am

Inspite of savings growth, pure banks (including private sector) however cannot match the returns of companies in upcoming sectors like retail, infrastructure etc space. A pure bank is one that accepts deposits (liabilities) and gives loans (assets), with no presence in other financials like brokerages, AMC, insurance, investment banking etc.

The problem is - Indian savings mostly goes into fixed income securities like Fixed deposits and savings accounts. This will only help pure banks garner deposits easily.
 
The loan growth will be there, but it won't be very high. If a software dude has Rs. 3 lakhs in fixed deposits that gives 8% PA, he would not take a Rs. 40,000 LCD television on 15% PA interest.
 
Corporate lending will be easier for banks, but I would rather invest in a company that takes the loan rather than a company that gives the loan. Because obviously, the company that takes the loan (say an airport or retail company) will earn more returns from the investment.
 
That's probably one of the reasons why HDFC Bank has never been a real outperformer. There are always sectors in the index that will grow faster than HDFC Bank. Also, most of the public sector banks are pure banks (deposits & loans, nothing else) - that's why they hardly grow at 15 - 20% per annum.
 
The real money is in a diversified bank with presence in brokerages, AMC, insurance etc. Even if a small percentage of the saving population shifts their preferred investment from fixed deposits, these diversified banks are going to make tons of money and outperform most other sectors.
 
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