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Message Icon Topic: Sentiment Cracking-How to react?? Post Reply Post New Topic
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Mohan
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 17/Sep/2007 at 12:08pm
What is the solution for them ? Thats a tough call to make.
In my previous life a a mungerilal  I  have had similar experiences too. I had gotten stuck in stocks where everyday I saw them going down and I prayed and hoped  that somehow they would go up to my buying price so that I could exit and not book a loss. Every day I got sinking feeling in my stomach when I saw the stock quotes and saw it lower. ( My rational though told me that I had made a mistake and I should get out, while my heart wished for a miracle to save me) Needless to say, I did not get out earlier when I still could as a result of which I lost a large portion of my capital, not to mention opportunity cost. If I would have taken the hard decision to sell earlier, my capital would not have diminished as much.

Moral of the story for me has been " Never average down "
" When in doubt, get out "




 Once again, Just sharing my experience.





Edited by Mohan - 17/Sep/2007 at 12:12pm
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 17/Sep/2007 at 12:14pm
Ask your bummies not get bummed out. The Big Three of the software pack are trading at a trailing P/E of around 20 (not 200, like in year 2000). These are companies that generate Rs. 4,000 crores of net profit each year, and show an increase each year, inspite of things going wrong.
 
stocks which simply rely upon some business model and growth potential etc., in case the sentiment deteriorates no bottom is bottom for them.
 
That holds true only for some of the commodity plays, not the software pack (atleast not the big ones). They won't swing from a net profit of Rs. 4,000 crores to a net loss of Rs. 1,000 crore ever. There might be P/E contraction, that's all.
 
At that moment how to play the game....by making a very big average so as to bring the acquisition cost down so that you can book out on any intermittent rally or to just make a paw by paw entry
 
Like all situations, including a change in the market sentiments, you can do three things - BUY, SELL or HOLD.
 
- If you believe that sentiments are poor, hold the software stocks without any changes. Sensex weightage to software stocks is at 20%. As long as your weightage is less than 20%, you might actually outperform the benchmark.
 
- If you think that Mr. Market is right, book a loss and sell the stocks. This carries a risk of your portfolio underperforming the benchmark if the river changes direction.
 
- Be a contrarian and buy the software pack. By 2009, you would have accumulated enough software stocks at a price that others would kill for.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 17/Sep/2007 at 12:32pm
Hey Smartcat, I admire the solutions you bring about.....but a simple question......Buy, sell or hold when a change in sentiment is there, is not the possible option. You cannot buy as the funds dry up faster than one imagines. So, now the solution thats there for my bummy is either to book out or repent as others are making a killing in commodity plays as well. I have advised him that if he cant handle this anymore he cn book out and get into ONGC. He was similarly trapped in Dish as well and I had to make him short so that he could minimise his losses. there is one thing which I have realised dear, dont fight the sentiment to show your bravery for it requires a great deal of courage to abandon the trend and to do bottom hunting rely on hard core financial management principles and not vague vague concepts. No God has said that a P/e of 20 is fair for a company. Also, it never pays to have a heartburn issues here...if one is uncomfortable, he should book out. A loss here and there is not the end of the world.....and you can always make up for that loss.
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 17/Sep/2007 at 12:40pm
Your bummy seems to be a big bum - always ending up buying stocks at their tops.
 
In my previous life a a mungerilal  I  have had similar experiences too
 
Mohan - Just a wild guess, but wasn't this sometime in 2000? Do you see any differences between 2000 and 2007?
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 17/Sep/2007 at 12:46pm
Well his issue is his accumulation style....he made some very decent killing but somehow the way he plays his shots will always have you you heart in your mouth.......he appears very confident when he enters and displays a lot of conviction till he doesnt get nervous and whenever he gets nervous he gets big time nervous......and this behaviour is typical of many traders who think of themselves a kin of buffett and lynch and what have you.
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Mohan
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 17/Sep/2007 at 1:13pm
Originally posted by smartcat

Your bummy seems to be a big bum - always ending up buying stocks at their tops.
 
In my previous life a a mungerilal  I  have had similar experiences too
 
Mohan - Just a wild guess, but wasn't this sometime in 2000? Do you see any differences between 2000 and 2007?


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
The Kargill episode was the last straw for me in the market. I was long, leveraged and broker closed out my positions when markets dipped . I got out of the market,  penniless. Actually, kicked out would be more appropriate.

Started investing again thru mutual funds in March of Last year.

Differences between 2000 and 2007 is that now I am investing and not trading. Not qualified to comment on markets.
I must say, I am still tempted to trade. Requires a lot of will power not to.







Edited by Mohan - 17/Sep/2007 at 1:16pm
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 17/Sep/2007 at 1:55pm
What to do if the people you entrust your money with trade and not investor so you will become a pseudo trader or a pseudo investor, whatever you may say.......hahahaha
 
however, thats how most MF investors have started their career as and this is what I call loss of confidence. One of my friends used to locate which is the best MF for her and I used to tease her by asking the time she devotes on locating a good , if be used in locating a good company she will be better off.....but you can trade directly into stock if and only if you have the confidence.
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