Ask your bummies not get bummed out. The Big Three of the software pack are trading at a trailing P/E of around 20 (not 200, like in year 2000). These are companies that generate Rs. 4,000 crores of net profit each year, and show an increase each year, inspite of things going wrong.
stocks which simply rely upon some business model and growth potential etc., in case the sentiment deteriorates no bottom is bottom for them. |
That holds true only for some of the commodity plays, not the software pack (atleast not the big ones). They won't swing from a net profit of Rs. 4,000 crores to a net loss of Rs. 1,000 crore ever. There might be P/E contraction, that's all.
At that moment how to play the game....by making a very big average so as to bring the acquisition cost down so that you can book out on any intermittent rally or to just make a paw by paw entry |
Like all situations, including a change in the market sentiments, you can do three things - BUY, SELL or HOLD.
- If you believe that sentiments are poor, hold the software stocks without any changes. Sensex weightage to software stocks is at 20%. As long as your weightage is less than 20%, you might actually outperform the benchmark.
- If you think that Mr. Market is right, book a loss and sell the stocks. This carries a risk of your portfolio underperforming the benchmark if the river changes direction.
- Be a contrarian and buy the software pack. By 2009, you would have accumulated enough software stocks at a price that others would kill for.