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Comparing Stocks within the same sector
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Our stocks. Buy hold or sell - The help ourselves Board :Comparing Stocks within the same sector
Message Icon Topic: Which private Bank will foreigners buy? Post Reply Post New Topic
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 4:02pm
Originally posted by tyler_durden

Originally posted by xbox

Here is the most compelling 2009 story ...CBoP.
It will be the most preferred buy-out candidate post 2009 because it has pan India presence, huge network (400+ branches), no known promoter, reasonable mcap (5K+) Cr and willingness to exit (from existing management). But story is not this. Story is what CBoP can become by 2009. CBoP is unique story in making. It has dark past, struggling present (NPA) but bright future. Uniqueness of CBoP lies in takeover/amalgamation of smaller banks. It has sallowed BoP, LKB etc. etc. I think management is preparing itself to become big so that it can get bigger and bigger takeover cheque. Remember Takeovers are not done on fundamentals but done of assets and future promise. Recall vodafone buyout, Corus buyout and that Hindalco's buyout.
A bank with 400+ branches can easily be sold at 5-7 BUSD. It is conservative figure. CBoP is going vary cheap. YES Bank with 30 branches fetches 4K+ mcap whereas CBoP is is just 5K+ for 400 branches.
Now take non-believer stand. Will ICICI bank be sold, no. Will HDFC Bank, no (for next 5-7 years), KMB, no for sure. No buyout will tarket PSU Banks (not allowed). Then what is next most probable candidate ? it is CBoP. In case it improves on NPA front or makes few more acquisitions, it will benefit shareholders.
CBoP has one zing thing. Which I like in IFCI as well. It is willingness to sell from existing management/promoter.
In IFCI, I don't have margin of safety (as I looked very late) but CBoP looks good on margin as well.
Only short-term issue could be interest rate related fluctuations but one willing to store till 2009, one should take position now or at decline. Mugerilals pls help with support levels....Wink. It is multi-bagger in making. Right sector. Right signals. Right horse. It is 101% takeover target.
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was going thru these posts again....i recalled a meeting with my friends father..(he is a director with CBoP)....we were discussing banking space post 2009...he told me that they have clear instructions from the top to bring NPA to 0.....for this CBoP is calling all the people with bad debts and asking them to give watever they can and are closing the files....they want to bring the NPA down to 0 by end of next year.....also bank of punjab head quarters re shifting from chandigarh to either gurgaon or mumbai ....
 
XBox let us assume that takeover takes later or does not happen. What kind of a CAGR in EPS can an investor expect to make. That is because I know of people sitting with South indian Bank for over 10 years - waiiting for a takeover.


Edited by basant - 27/Aug/2007 at 4:04pm
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tigershark
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 5:02pm
is the sluggish performance of the hdfc bank stock due to the increase in free float after the adr issue
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 5:24pm
Could be but personally I am looking at this as an opportunity for long term money.
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 12:42pm
I change my view on Yes Bank that it will be taken over thanks to my scuttlebutt approach, one investment banker said,"Yes Bank was interested in buying Bank of Rajasthan as Pravin Kumar Tayal was looking to sell his 44% stake but only for 140-150/share.
 
Clearly, promoters want to make this bank BIG !!!
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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xbox
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 5:16am
XBox let us assume that takeover takes later or does not happen.
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Basant jee, in that case there is no need to buy CBoP. There are much better banks available. On otherhand CBoP playing big role in M&A post-2009 is as sure as sun rise in post-2009. Wink
YES Bank has no such play as sure as ...

Edited by xbox - 27/Aug/2007 at 5:17am
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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tyler_durden
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Quote tyler_durden Replybullet Posted: 28/Aug/2007 at 7:27pm
 
Originally posted by deveshkayal

I change my view on Yes Bank that it will be taken over thanks to my scuttlebutt approach, one investment banker said,"Yes Bank was interested in buying Bank of Rajasthan as Pravin Kumar Tayal was looking to sell his 44% stake but only for 140-150/share.
 
Clearly, promoters want to make this bank BIG !!!
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  • what is scuttlebutt approach devesh??

 

 
If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.
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us121
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Quote us121 Replybullet Posted: 28/Aug/2007 at 8:11pm
tylerji, u may refer following two links:

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1127&KW=scuttlebutt&PID=33224#33224

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1127&KW=scuttlebutt&PID=33229#33229


Fisher brought a personal approach to finding great growth stocks, too. He limited the stocks he bought to areas he knew a lot about. He also made famous the scuttlebutt’ technique of getting the low down on a company by talking to suppliers, customers, competitors and employees.
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WHAT SCUTTLEBUTT CAN DO

Merriam-Webster defines "scuttlebutt" as:
1, a : a cask on shipboard to contain freshwater for a day's use, b : a drinking fountain on a ship or at a naval or marine installation
2 : RUMOR, GOSSIP

Fisher makes use of definition 2 here in the second chapter. "It is amazing what an accurate picture of the relative points of strength and weakness of each company in an industry can be obtained from a representative cross-section of the opinions of those who in one way or another are concerned with any particular company." Though he writes only three pages about scuttlebutt here, Fisher assures us the concept will be discussed in great detail all throughout the book.




Edited by us121 - 28/Aug/2007 at 8:13pm
ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top
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tyler_durden
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Quote tyler_durden Replybullet Posted: 28/Aug/2007 at 8:17pm
thanks a lot sir...that was really nice of you
If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.
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