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basant
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 Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 4:02pm |
Originally posted by tyler_durden
Originally posted by xbox
Here is the most compelling 2009 story ...CBoP.
It will be the most preferred buy-out candidate post 2009 because it has pan India presence, huge network (400+ branches), no known promoter, reasonable mcap (5K+) Cr and willingness to exit (from existing management). But story is not this. Story is what CBoP can become by 2009. CBoP is unique story in making. It has dark past, struggling present (NPA) but bright future. Uniqueness of CBoP lies in takeover/amalgamation of smaller banks. It has sallowed BoP, LKB etc. etc. I think management is preparing itself to become big so that it can get bigger and bigger takeover cheque. Remember Takeovers are not done on fundamentals but done of assets and future promise. Recall vodafone buyout, Corus buyout and that Hindalco's buyout.
A bank with 400+ branches can easily be sold at 5-7 BUSD. It is conservative figure. CBoP is going vary cheap. YES Bank with 30 branches fetches 4K+ mcap whereas CBoP is is just 5K+ for 400 branches.
Now take non-believer stand. Will ICICI bank be sold, no. Will HDFC Bank, no (for next 5-7 years), KMB, no for sure. No buyout will tarket PSU Banks (not allowed). Then what is next most probable candidate ? it is CBoP. In case it improves on NPA front or makes few more acquisitions, it will benefit shareholders.
CBoP has one zing thing. Which I like in IFCI as well. It is willingness to sell from existing management/promoter.
In IFCI, I don't have margin of safety (as I looked very late) but CBoP looks good on margin as well.
Only short-term issue could be interest rate related fluctuations but one willing to store till 2009, one should take position now or at decline. Mugerilals pls help with support levels....  . It is multi-bagger in making. Right sector. Right signals. Right horse. It is 101% takeover target.
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was going thru these posts again....i recalled a meeting with my friends father..(he is a director with CBoP)....we were discussing banking space post 2009...he told me that they have clear instructions from the top to bring NPA to 0.....for this CBoP is calling all the people with bad debts and asking them to give watever they can and are closing the files....they want to bring the NPA down to 0 by end of next year.....also bank of punjab head quarters re shifting from chandigarh to either gurgaon or mumbai .... |
XBox let us assume that takeover takes later or does not happen. What kind of a CAGR in EPS can an investor expect to make. That is because I know of people sitting with South indian Bank for over 10 years - waiiting for a takeover.
Edited by basant - 27/Aug/2007 at 4:04pm
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tigershark
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 Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 5:02pm |
is the sluggish performance of the hdfc bank stock due to the increase in free float after the adr issue
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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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basant
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 Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 5:24pm |
Could be but personally I am looking at this as an opportunity for long term money.
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deveshkayal
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 Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 12:42pm |
I change my view on Yes Bank that it will be taken over thanks to my scuttlebutt approach, one investment banker said," Yes Bank was interested in buying Bank of Rajasthan as Pravin Kumar Tayal was looking to sell his 44% stake but only for 140-150/share.
Clearly, promoters want to make this bank BIG !!!
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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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xbox
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 Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 5:16am |
XBox let us assume that takeover takes later or does not happen.
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Basant jee, in that case there is no need to buy CBoP. There are much better banks available. On otherhand CBoP playing big role in M&A post-2009 is as sure as sun rise in post-2009.
YES Bank has no such play as sure as ...
Edited by xbox - 27/Aug/2007 at 5:17am
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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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tyler_durden
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 Posted: 28/Aug/2007 at 7:27pm |
Originally posted by deveshkayal
I change my view on Yes Bank that it will be taken over thanks to my scuttlebutt approach, one investment banker said,"Yes Bank was interested in buying Bank of Rajasthan as Pravin Kumar Tayal was looking to sell his 44% stake but only for 140-150/share.
Clearly, promoters want to make this bank BIG !!! |
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- what is scuttlebutt approach devesh??
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If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.
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us121
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 Posted: 28/Aug/2007 at 8:11pm |
tylerji, u may refer following two links: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1127&KW=scuttlebutt&PID=33224#33224 http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1127&KW=scuttlebutt&PID=33229#33229 Fisher brought a
personal approach to finding great growth stocks, too. He limited the
stocks he bought to areas he knew a lot about. He also made famous the ’scuttlebutt’ technique of getting the low down on a company by talking to suppliers, customers, competitors and employees. ---------------------- WHAT SCUTTLEBUTT CAN DO
Merriam-Webster defines "scuttlebutt" as: 1,
a : a cask on shipboard to contain freshwater for a day's use, b : a
drinking fountain on a ship or at a naval or marine installation 2 : RUMOR, GOSSIP
Fisher
makes use of definition 2 here in the second chapter. "It is amazing
what an accurate picture of the relative points of strength and
weakness of each company in an industry can be obtained from a
representative cross-section of the opinions of those who in one way or
another are concerned with any particular company." Though he writes
only three pages about scuttlebutt here, Fisher assures us the concept will be discussed in great detail all throughout the book.
Edited by us121 - 28/Aug/2007 at 8:13pm
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ABILITY will get u at d top. CHARACTER will retain u at d top
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tyler_durden
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 Posted: 28/Aug/2007 at 8:17pm |
thanks a lot sir...that was really nice of you
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If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.
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