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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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vivekkumar_in
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Topic: Shanti Gears - Moving in top Gear.
    Posted: 19/Sep/2006 at 5:01am
Dear Mr.Basant,
    How about Shanthi Gears(Rs 63)  ? Manufactures gears for auto, textiles, manufacturing industries. It is held by quite a few Mutual funds. Can it be a multi-bagger ?
 
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VivekKumar
 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 1:03pm
Shanti Gears - Moving in top Gear.
 
Shanti gears (CMP Rs 64) is engaged in the manufacture of Gears, Gear Boxes, Geared Motors and Gear Assemblies both standard and custom-built. Over the past couple of years the company has seen a gradual hardening of demand in all its product segments This has lead to stupendous all round growth in the company’s products.
 

                           Financial Synopsis

CMP

Rs 64.00

Market Cap

Rs 515.50 crores

Sales Fy 06

Rs 184.26 crores

EPS Fy 06

Rs 3.42

PE

18.71

Sustainable growth

30%- 40% till 2009

PEG on the lower band of growth

0.62

RoE

34.26%

Over the past 3 years the company has increased its sales from Rs 63.80 crores to Rs 184.26 crores registering a compounded annual growth of 42.40% .During this period the net profit grew from Rs 6.51 crores to Rs 28.06 crores registering an annual compounded growth of 62%.

This company appears to have been very well managed and the high RoE at 34.26 up from 14.16 in 2003 indicates the efficient use of capital.

The company’s products are used in all the major sectors such as Steel, Sugar, Cement. Agriculture, Pharmaceutical, Paper, Fertilizers etc. General corporate buoyancy should lead to the growth momentum being maintained during the next couple of years in almost all these sectors. India Inc is expected to spend Rs 800,000 crores over the next 3 years and all induistries associated with capex should show supernormal growth for the said period.

In India Shanti Gears remains the No. 1 Gear company as no other Gear Manufacturer is engaged in the Manufacture of such diversified high quality control facilities.

To counter a sudden decline in domestic demand Shanti Gears has tried to go global and focus on exports. This would lead to a spreading of risks. In this connection the company is trying to break into the German market. Germany is the heart of quality engineering and the   acceptance of products made by Shanti Gears is in itself an achievement. An office has been set up at Düsseldorf to oversee this activity.

Recommendations: Investors should buy into this stock as it seems attractively valuedwith potential to yield fairly high returns. This company should deliver between 30%- 40% annualized growth for the next 2 to 3 years and while it does that investors could make money because of the initiatives that are being rolled out which when completed should supplement the growth rate even further.

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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 4:48am
Impressive Basantji !
I am amazed how quick you come with such defendable research backed with Solid figues... Kudos..
 
One more line of question..
 
Do you think Shanthi Gears would come under a Cyclical industries classification considering it is closely linked with capex cycle of industries and with intrest rates going up the effect on that to capex cycle?
 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 9:16am
Thank You. Although Shanti Gears is a cyclical but at least for the next 2-3 years I do not think that the company would be affected much. The spending on the company's product is a  small percentage of the total spend and once the capex cycle is laid out replacement demand could come in after a few years. Over all the company;s innitiative to get penetrate into the European markets should keep it in good shape.Stock looks good and appears as a fit case for investment.
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 8:23am
Shanthi Gears featured in Forbe's list 'Best under a Billion' article was published in Nov 2004.
 
On The Cover/Top Stories
Best Under a Billion
Tim W. Ferguson, 11.01.04

Finding 100 of the best smaller-size enterprises in both Asia/Pacific and Europe is, well, no small feat. First, compiler Mitchell Martin screened our databases to find 2,600 publicly traded companies that had under $1 billion a year in revenue and five-year returns on capital of at least 5%. Then we ranked the lot by sustained gains in sales and returns, plus latest-year market momentum. What emerges is the cream. While not all of these entities fit an entrepreneurial mold, we trust they represent economic dynamism in the two regions. But we are also looking for companies with a track record of rewarding their shareholders, so this leaves off most flashes in the pan. (For highlights of a similar list from the U.S., see p. 40.)

FORBES GLOBAL has been refining this collection for six years now, and it has been a consistent guide to winners. The first roster, in 1998, included now-familiar names: Infosys, Johnson Electric, Anglo Irish Bank and Dassault Systemes.

We suggest you could do worse in a small-company portfolio than these selections. But a word of caution: Liquidity and transparency can be a problem in even some of these better companies. Balance your holdings accordingly.

One thing that's a surer bet: A country's climate for entrepreneurism is reflected in these ranks. Note that India, with 24 entries, has more than any nation except the U.K. This year we have 2 selections from China. As the private sector continues to develop there, we expect that number to increase. Japan does better this year, with its export rebound, but South Korea still trails in Best Under a Billion businesses. In Europe we welcome Poland to the list and include Turkey, recognizing its approach to membership in the EU. A continuing disappointment, given its industrious small concerns: Italy.

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-------US $mil------ 5-Year average %
Company Industry Sales Net Income Market value Return on equity EPS Growth P/E Latest 12-mo
ASIA / PACIFIC
AUSTRALIA
Centennial Coal Coal 350 37 568 22 30 11
Cochlear Hearing devices 198 26 948 62 16 33
Equigold Gold mining 65 12 163 20 51 13
GRD Gold mining & construction 158 15 312 28 NA 22
Jubilee Mines Nickel mining 104 33 404 44 NA 5
Macquarie Goodman Management Real estate development 55 26 760 29 59 26
Pacific Hydro Renewable energy generator 24 28 362 19 36 9
Perpetual Trustees Australia Investment managers 215 63 1,401 30 22 20
Primary Health Care Health care industry services 105 13 519 8 18 32
Select Harvests Nuts & dried fruits 89 11 218 21 25 17
Sonic Healthcare Diagnostic imaging services 717 40 1,910 12 9 42
Timbercorp Forest products 74 18 234 78 23 12
CHINA
Anhui Conch Cement Cement 683 90 2,022 NA 42 18
Global Bio-Chem Technology Corn products 300 67 1,594 NA NA 18
HONG KONG
China Pharmaceutical Group Pharmaceuticals 319 65 387 17 28 7
Kingboard Chemical Holdings Industrial goods 571 61 1,332 30 23 15
Lung Kee (Bermuda) Holdings Molds for plastics industry 156 20 404 19 8 13
Sun Hing Vision Group Holdings Eyeglass frames 66 12 113 34 7 9
Truly International Holdings Consumer electronic devices 180 25 454 12 27 18
INDIA
Aurobindo Pharma Pharmaceuticals 334 25 412 34 28 17
Balrampur Chini Mills Sugar, molasses, industrial alcohols 170 14 178 18 7 10
Bharat Forge Auto parts, presses, industrial equipment 181 40 703 34 27 23
Cipla Pharmaceuticals 425 68 1,943 29 21 24
Corporation Bank Banking 647 122 860 23 18 8
Essel Propack Containers 126 15 148 17 17 12
Graphite India Graphite products, reinforced plastics 121 12 64 16 5 5
Gujarat Ambuja Cements Cement 525 79 1,346 22 19 12
HDFC Bank Banking 699 118 2,554 28 34 21
Iflex Software for financial industry 182 41 1,044 NA NA 24
Indian Hume Pipe Pipes & other metal products 37 12 16 33 38 6
IPCA Laboratories Pharmaceuticals 138 17 175 25 25 11
Jammu & Kashmir Bank Banking 421 94 273 33 37 6
JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals & chemicals 70 12 118 23 26 10
Jubilant Organosys Pharmaceuticals, chemicals & adhesives 193 18 396 26 20 22
Mphasis BFL Software for financial industry 134 23 461 12 15 19
Neyveli Lignite Coal 636 264 2,202 17 16 8
Nicholas Piramal India Pharmaceuticals & glass containers 320 46 763 23 26 14
Oriental Bank of Commerce Banking 929 158 1,026 24 24 8
Satyam Computer Services Computer services 591 118 2,676 53 42 18
Sesa Goa Steel 201 38 297 19 39 6
Shanthi Gears Auto parts 19 3 45 17 23 8
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Pharmaceuticals 228 81 1,694 44 44 17
Zee Tele Films Movies 316 68 1,381 32 17 19
INDONESIA
Berlian Laju Tanker Shipping 115 18 277 12 12 13
Dankos Laboratories Pharmaceuticals 142 15 146 54 NA 9
Enseval Putera Megatrading Distributor, medical & consumer goods 454 18 104 237 NA 5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Cement & property management 495 80 782 69 NA 14
Indonesian Satellite (Indosat) Wireless telecommunications 980 187 2,483 23 7 10
Multi Bintang Indonesia Beer 67 11 70 37 38 7
Ramayana Department stores 423 36 1,297 27 26 20
Sepatu Bata Footwear 49 4 18 48 7 5
JAPAN
Arisawa Manufacturing Fiberglass & other industrial materials 466 49 1,365 15 21 26
Global Media Online Internet software & services 146 10 801 25 56 35
Goldcrest Home building 751 49 1,076 33 48 23
Iida Home Max Home building 927 52 812 28 47 20
Japan Cash Machine Cash-handling equipment 313 39 786 21 25 17
Kappa Create Sushi & noodle restaurants 585 36 592 29 58 30
Mars Engineering Equipment for pachinko parlors 294 41 801 8 50 19
Meiko Network Japan Private schools 72 7 142 20 48 7
Musashi Seimitsu Industry Auto parts 884 46 652 32 18 13
Nichiiko Pharmaceutical Pharmaceuticals 161 22 242 58 NA 11
Nishimatsuya Chain Retail apparel 715 36 925 21 33 20
Park24 Parking garages 387 30 1,077 19 31 27
Resorttrust Hotels 685 39 755 21 21 18
Right On Retail apparel 635 37 657 17 24 19
Saint Marc Bakeries & restaurants 154 17 434 19 13 22
Square Enix Videogames 605 105 3,031 14 9 31
The Japan General Estate Real estate development 583 27 253 46 81 12
Tokyo Individualized Educational Institute1 Cram school 105 -1 128 28 NA NM
Trend Micro Computer-security software 448 86 5,785 21 50 41
United Arrows Retail apparel 411 28 508 23 34 11
Urban Corp Home building 492 26 623 16 82 10
USS Used-car auctions 406 85 2,342 21 21 29
MALAYSIA
Delloyd Ventures Auto parts 50 8 71 18 48 9
IOI Properties Real estate development 181 60 656 14 6 11
SP Setia Real estate development & building products 216 33 552 17 22 16
Taliworks Water utility 35 10 129 124 NA 13
NEW ZEALAND
Dorchester Pacific Financial services 48 4 42 22 21 9
Sky City Entertainment Group Casinos 375 64 1,298 39 15 20
PAKISTAN
Bank Al-Habib Banking 67 18 99 24 28 4
Ibrahim Fibres Polyester fibers 199 8 214 14 29 17
PHILIPPINES
First Philippine Holdings Electric utilities 692 69 265 12 21 3
iPeople Education 24 7 18 27 NA 2
SINGAPORE
Fu Yu Plastic molds & components 194 19 308 12 49 10
HTL International Holdings Home furniture 256 17 221 21 NA 8
Jaya Holdings Shipping 61 27 452 17 22 13
Meiban Group Plastic molds & components 171 9 118 17 NA 8
Sincere Watch Watch & clock retailing 154 11 83 29 61 6
United Overseas Insurance Property/casualty insurance 10 6 83 10 37 14
SOUTH KOREA
Halla Climate Control Automotive air control equipment 993 75 996 32 39 13
Intelligent Digital Integrated Security Electronic security devices 34 10 76 72 50 11
Sunjin Animal feed 163 8 45 48 -40 3
SRI LANKA
Aitken Spence Conglomerate 93 13 80 14 32 6
TAIWAN
Elan Microelectronics Semiconductors 136 22 227 26 16 13
Fu Sheng Industrial Gold equipment, compressors, electronics 502 102 951 35 24 9
Realtek Semiconductor Semiconductors 273 82 731 38 35 14
THAILAND
Banpu Coal 315 52 1,071 16 NA 17
PTT Exploration & Production Oil & gas production 887 304 4,857 33 38 14
Samaggi Insurance Property/casualty insurance 24 8 67 14 37 7
Seamico Securities Financial services 54 18 172 19 30 11
All figures are in U.S. dollars. Data as of Oct. 1. NA: Not available. NM: Not meaningful.
Sources: Worldscope via FactSet Research Systems; Bloomberg.

-------US $mil------ 5-Year average %
Company Industry Sales Net Income Market value Return on equity EPS Growth P/E Latest 12-mo
EUROPE
BELGIUM
Melexis Semiconductors 168 31 500 28 25 17
DENMARK
Coloplast Health care products 891 88 2,283 39 17 22
Djurslands Bank Banking 46 11 83 14 32 7
Forstaedernes Bank Financial services 139 17 233 14 10 11
Parken Sport & Entertainment Soccer team & stadium 36 2 130 11 -3 51
Ringkjobing Landbobank Banking 104 39 318 17 32 8
Sjaelso Gruppen Commercial property developer 132 23 174 38 26 7
Thrane & Thrane Satellite communications equipment 103 10 200 22 12 16
William Demant Holdings Hearing aids, communications equip 654 104 2,979 170 27 23
FINLAND
Exel Sports equipment & industrial products 72 4 155 29 10 19
Marimekko Textiles & clothing 71 8 238 25 30 12
Nokian Renkaat Tires 665 60 1,166 22 17 13
PKC Group Automotive electronics & contract manufacturing 184 15 192 27 11 10
Ramirent Construction equipment leasing 218 13 272 29 1 9
FRANCE
ABC Arbitrage Arbitrage trading 89 10 102 56 6 9
April Group Insurance brokers 338 29 882 34 15 25
Audika Hearing aids & related products 66 6 209 49 29 26
Banque de la Reunion Banking (Reunion & Indian Ocean) 158 31 546 18 16 13
Beneteau Shipbuilding 700 64 1,181 47 30 12
Bois et Chiffons International Home furnishings retailer 18 4 35 112 80 6
Fiducial Real Estate Property & financial services investment 25 5 73 13 51 11
Fininfo Software & databases for financial industry 172 17 348 27 16 20
Fonciere des Regions Real estate devel & parking garages 122 52 886 14 43 7
GL Trade Brokerage software 161 17 350 55 28 25
Groupe Philippe Bosc Home hairdressing services 40 4 62 46 19 14
Ioltech Eye care equipment & pharmaceuticals 56 7 110 25 27 17
IPO Institut de Participations de l'Ouest Venture capital 57 50 293 19 27 6
Metrologic Group 3-D measuring software 22 8 196 51 30 18
Neopost Mailing & shipping equipment 936 104 1,959 26 22 14
NRJ Group Radio broadcasting 407 61 1,714 NA 20 25
Passat Consumer products 73 7 72 35 52 12
Rodriguez Group Shipbuilding 354 33 623 81 54 25
Toupargel-Agrigel Telephone food sales 396 15 385 38 35 13
GERMANY
Bijou Brigitte Modische Accessoires Costume jewelry 207 41 839 48 41 10
Centrotec Sustainable Heat-resistant plastics 145 8 155 28 NA 12
ElringKlinger Auto parts, plastics & real estate 524 30 602 18 49 15
Rational Professional food preparation devices 235 34 824 57 13 19
IRELAND
FBD Holdings Multiline insurance 406 115 896 19 38 6
McInerney Holdings Real estate development & construction 432 30 243 47 25 6
ITALY
Navigazione Montanari Shipping 174 27 324 14 21 9
NETHERLANDS
Aalberts Industries Flow-control devices 987 56 876 89 6 11
Airspray Dispensers 45 8 127 36 17 15
Exact Holding Business management software 260 41 614 45 16 16
Fornix BioSciences Pharmaceuticals & medical devices 85 7 85 51 25 14
InnoConcepts Markets inventions 60 6 83 39 36 13
Qiagen DNA & RNA processing equipment 387 47 1,678 18 25 38
Unit 4 Agresso Business management software 276 16 367 89 5 17
NORWAY
Aktiv Kapital Debt collection 125 23 537 57 38 14
Ekornes Home furnishings 303 44 740 47 13 14
Solstad Offshore Shipping 149 24 324 19 -11 10
Tandberg Videoconferencing equipment 236 39 1,217 19 51 25
TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Oilfield services 145 30 481 29 2 11
Visma Business software 201 29 314 63 40 11
POLAND
Cersanit-Krasnystaw Ceramic products 139 18 450 26 28 15
PORTUGAL
Brisa-Auto-Estradas Toll road construction & operation 673 191 4,825 26 NA 21
SPAIN
Grupo Empresarial ENCE Forest products 607 52 710 20 75 11
Inmobiliaria Del Sur Real estate development 72 15 662 20 32 25
SWEDEN
Kungsleden Real estate investment 377 104 594 21 32 5
Lennart Wallenstam Byggnads Real estate management 148 63 463 29 85 5
Meda Pharmaceutical marketing 121 8 239 15 NA 19
New Wave Group Promotional items & apparel 261 19 435 26 44 16
Nibe Industrier Heating products 340 20 427 23 24 21
ORC Software Financial trading software 33 8 138 55 32 22
SkiStar Ski resorts 115 15 313 14 23 13
SWITZERLAND
Nobel Biocare Dental implants & prosthetics 410 88 3,921 19 66 29
Phonak Holding Hearing aids & communications equipment 503 54 2,095 16 17 29
Straumann Holding Dental implants 277 65 3,276 43 50 37
Temenos Group Banking software 157 12 413 75 NA 33
TURKEY
Mardin Cimento Sanayii Ve Ticaret Cement 42 11 102 60 19 9
UNITED KINGDOM
Albemarle & Bond Holdings Pawnshops 41 6 95 19 16 13
ARM Holdings Semiconductors 229 27 1,636 30 24 86
Aveva Group Engineering software 70 7 192 27 15 22
Ben Bailey Home building 112 16 84 32 51 5
Bovis Homes Group Home building 854 154 1,178 20 22 6
Cairn Energy Oil & gas production 278 83 4,173 11 NA 13
Carpetright Carpet retailing 806 87 1,328 79 25 15
Clarkson Shipping finance 105 14 199 35 44 10
Enterprise Inns Pubs 800 207 3,634 16 33 13
Findel Catalog/specialty distribution 777 51 610 22 19 10
Hornby Model railroads & cars 72 8 168 18 44 17
Intermediate Capital Group Short-term finance 249 80 1,338 21 13 16
Johnston Press Weekly newspapers, printing & Web sites 878 160 2,863 20 17 15
Latchways Safety equipment 36 4 71 42 7 16
London Security Fire protection 96 10 367 13 7 35
McCarthy & Stone Real estate development 402 128 1,133 30 35 6
Monsoon Retail apparel 497 55 606 50 18 10
Mountview Estates Real estate development 102 37 286 17 22 8
Northern Racing Horse-racing tracks 17 2 124 17 15 26
Numis Financial services 40 11 184 28 27 13
Paladin Resources Oil & gas production 479 51 896 18 NA 10
Rensburg Investment managers 57 26 171 36 29 7
Sanctuary Group Recorded music 252 11 287 45 10 24
Savills Real estate agency 539 39 472 23 18 8
SCI Entertainment Group Computer games 47 7 62 273 NA 8
St Mowden Properties Real estate development 211 41 692 13 17 13
Ted Baker Retail apparel 162 17 325 59 12 17
Topps Tiles Tile retailer 190 20 734 60 31 16
Vanco Computer networking services 140 5 279 37 25 59
Warner Chilcott Pharmaceuticals 448 97 2,770 15 36 22
Watermark Group Travel marketing 74 4 105 44 24 16
All figures are in U.S. dollars. Data as of Oct. 1. NA: Not available. NM: Not meaningful.
Sources: Worldscope via FactSet Research Systems; Bloomberg.
 
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch
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Quote Equity Buff Replybullet Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 9:54am
Dear Vivek,
 
Good you have posted this article. I read this article when it was published in Nov 2004. I think Shanthi Gears will do very well and the stock could give very good returns over the next 3 to 5 years.
 
Rgds.
 
 
 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 23/Sep/2006 at 10:32am
I would like to share an experience on this. SOmetime in 2002 Forbes had categorised MAstek as one of the best 200 emerging software companies. i did my diligence and bought it. The stock doubled in about 6 months  and sometime in April 2003 (not sure about the month) Infy reported a poor guidance and Mastek showed lower then expected profits. Mastek was down 50% in one day and I was cut by half!!!
 
Now I am not saying that all such companies liisted above would be like that - just tried to share an experience as to what could happen even after these companies are taken into the Hall of fame! 


Edited by basant - 23/Sep/2006 at 10:35am
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 25/Sep/2006 at 3:22am
You are right Basantji.. Couple of  things that come out
 
 - Even if it is a Hall of Famer still have to go by the game..
(But it shows us the Strength of the Managements that have produced 5 yrs of consistent growth & good Balance Sheet) Most of them on list have a solid management behind them...
 
 - We cannot invest based on the list alone, as there are other factors like type of industry-cyclicals, price vs value etc...
 
- Sector leader comes with lower guidance so all the sector stocks are hit.. As a seasoned investor you know this happens everywhere.. One multi-million lawsuit against some US Pharma company on possible side effects... all Pharma majors & minors tank and some of them hit lower circuit...
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
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