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Equity Valuation Techniques
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Equity Valuation Techniques
Message Icon Topic: Discussion: Holding companies & discounts! Post Reply Post New Topic
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sidhartha
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Quote sidhartha Replybullet Posted: 30/Jun/2007 at 2:37pm
Any discussion on holding companies is incomplete without refernce to this excellent study -
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nav_1996
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Quote nav_1996 Replybullet Posted: 30/Jun/2007 at 2:37pm
We have been not discussing about a very important factor i.e. what is underlying business of the operating subsidary and quality of management for the operating subsidary as well as holding company. As timeline for a holding comany is theoratically infinite, markets would give more discount to a business which is cyclic or in an area where business dynamics are not stable compared to stable businesses with market leadership and high quality mgmt . I am sure if there were a pure holding company for HDFC discount would not be more than 20% vs say 50% for Jindal SW.
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nav_1996
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Quote nav_1996 Replybullet Posted: 30/Jun/2007 at 2:41pm
Originally posted by sidhartha

Any discussion on holding companies is incomplete without refernce to this excellent study -


Quality of management is important but becomes more so for holding comapnies becuase indefinite holding period. Lost a decent amount trying to chase Consolidated finvest.
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sajanvm
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Quote sajanvm Replybullet Posted: 30/Jun/2007 at 8:56am
Kojam is very interesting. It will soon undergo a transformation from a holding company to an operating business. Check this out:
 
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ndzapak
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Quote ndzapak Replybullet Posted: 12/Jul/2007 at 2:32am

Last week, we touched upon the key points in Warren Buffett's 1979 letter to his shareholders. This week, let us see what the master has to offer in his 1980 letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway:

"The value to Berkshire Hathaway of retained earnings is not determined by whether we own 100%, 50%, 20% or 1% of the businesses in which they reside. Rather, the value of those retained earnings is determined by the use to which they are put and the subsequent level of earnings produced by that usage."

The maestro made the above statements because in those days he felt that the prevailing accounting convention/standards were not in sync with a value based investment approach (Infact, they still aren't). In the paragraphs preceding the one mentioned above, he painstakingly explains that while accounting convention requires that a partial ownership (ownership of say 20%) in a business be reflected on the owner's books by way of dividend payments, in reality, they are worth much more to the owner and their true value is determined by the 20% of the intrinsic value of the company and not by 20% of the dividends that are reflected on its books. In the Indian context, imagine someone valuing a company like say M&M -if it had say a 20% stake in Tech Mahindra- based on the 20% of dividends that the latter pays out to M&M. This will be a rather incorrect way of valuing M&M, which in effect should be valued taking into account 20% of the intrinsic value of Tech Mahindra and not the dividends.

Source : Equitymaster

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mragarwal
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Quote mragarwal Replybullet Posted: 16/Jul/2007 at 12:47pm
Originally posted by basant

Very interesting names. Let us start threads on each of them and analyse them seperately.
 
i have posted a research report on HB Stockholdings in of the forums.
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CHINKI
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Quote CHINKI Replybullet Posted: 19/Jul/2007 at 1:28pm
Parents, not subsidiaries, contribute most to consolidated profit


Mumbai, July 18 : For all the corporate talk about inorganic growth, subsidiaries do not contribute significantly to the consolidated financial performance for most blue-chip corporates.

Data for the top 25 companies in 2006-07 shows that profit of the parent company (standalone) accounted for most of the total consolidated profit.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS READ HERE : THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 20/Jul/2007 at 10:19am
I think that holding companies should be valued on the bais of the earnings made by its subsidiaries. I would look at it like this:
 
Let H be the holding Company with no operating assets having an issued capital of 1 crore divided into 1 million shares of Rs.10 each.Lets assume its holding interest to be 80 p.c.
 
Let S be the subidiary with operating assets having an issued capital of Rs. 5 crore divided into 5 million shares of Rs. 10 each. Let the earning per share be Rs. 20.
 
Now PAT of S=Rs. 20*5million=Rs. 10 crores.
H's interest =80 p.c.
So, H's share of this PAT=.8*10crores=Rs.8 crores.
 
This will translate into a notional earnings of Rs. 80 per share in case of H.(80 million/1 million)
 
Now comes the most important part of assigning a multiple:
 
Now assume a  compounded rate of growth for profit for S. The terminal profit growth rate in my opinion, will be something like an IRR which will equate the discounted NAV.
 
Assign the arrived at figure to RS.80 and get the theoretical value of holding company.
 
Compare this with the market valuation and notice the deviation and place your position accordingly.
 
This approach will resolve many issues:
 
1.You dont have to bother about whether subsidiary companies pays dividend or not.
 
2.You can ignore whether the market is giving proper value to subidiaries or not. In my approach there is nothing called market valuation of subsidiary. I think you should assume the market value of your asset when the asset under consideration is marketable. Most holding companies will never sell their stake except in extra-ordinary circumstances, so why shall we assume the market value of subidiaries. Also, you cant change the value of a block asset on day to day basis
 
There is just one place where some imagination is involved. we have to get the CAGR for future profits of S. This is a very tricky area for me and hence I have never got into any holding company game....except when something is available really cheap.As a matter of conservatism you can see what life cycle the product that S makes is is in....then you may chose according rate. However, fancy multiples of 30 p.c. growth rate should be totally avaoided...... when we get into terminal valuations we assume growth, matuity and decline , all three.....so as maturity falls into the mean between growth and decline, be slightly conservative in getting the CAGR.
 
I understand my approach may be termed veru bookish, yet one must never ignore science while getting into valuations.
 
 
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