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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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maheshishah
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Quote maheshishah Replybullet Posted: 14/May/2014 at 2:38pm

Key Takeaways from the concall :


(1) Crax Corn Rings contributed 80 % to FY14 revenues – a YoY growth of 11.3 %


Namkeens contributed 12 % -- flat YoY


Natkhat contributed 5 % -- a YoY growth of 163 %


Krunchoids contributed 3 % to FY14 revenues.



(2) Retail Outlet reach has increased to 2,20,000 from FY13's 1,96,000.


(3) Gross debt as at 31st March 2014 is at 41 cr.. Debt repayment schedule is 12 cr. p.a.


(4) ICD is fully repaid and 14 cr. are parked as 'Current Investments'.


(5) Company has launched 'Natkhat' in Rs. 5 pack during the quarter and expects to increase its focus on this product line in FY15. New variants are planned to be launched in 'Natkhat' as well as 'Corn Rings' this fiscal.


(6) Krunchoids sales were below expectation and company is looking at fixing the gaps and relaunching the product line this fiscal.


(7) Next round of CAPEX will be planned depending on the sales growth this fiscal.


(8) Company is running at 78 % utilisation level in its existing capacities.


(9) EBITDA margin improvement can be expected starting FY15.




View post Concall :


If we read between the lines, then, company management has set for itself two choices – first, if sales pick up and go to historical 20 % + YoY levels then it will go for geographical manufacturing expansion – whereas – if sales show modest 15-20 % YoY growth then it will go for expansion at its existing plant at Noida in the current fiscal. As mentioned in our recent note too, competitive intensity is increasing in the segment but channel checks suggests good brand pull for 'CRAX Corn Rings'. As was evident from the channel checks, Krunchoids was almost out of shelves during Q4FY14 and management's commentary of below expected response to the product concurs with that. However, we feel Krunchoids is not a major setback as every new product takes its time to get accepted in the marketplace. Good thing is that management accepts the failure and is proactive in taking corrective steps. This approach will yield good results in long run.


Management seems to be working on new products and we can expect couple of launches this fiscal. Its the response to these products that will drive next phase of expansion for the company. Management seems to be playing safe and doesn't want to burden its balance sheet.


Based on recently declared results and management commentary post results, there might be short term negative reaction in the market but at just 1.2 times EV/Sales (FY14) and 13.9 times EV/EBITDA, every dip will offer an opportunity to accumulate the stock for the long term.


Discl .- Hold & looking to accumulate on dips.

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maheshishah
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Quote maheshishah Replybullet Posted: 15/May/2014 at 10:25am
Anand Rathi Q4FY14 Update on DFM Foods -- Maintains Buy
 
Key Takeaways :
 
 
Healthy Revenue Growth :
 
DFM Foods reported an 11 % yoy growth in revenues for the March-ending quarter. It did not raise prices of its products in 4QFY14 but reduced the weight, from 17 gms. to 16 gms., of its CRAX corn-rings Rs. 5 sachet. Considering the success of its Natkhat brand, the company also introduced here a Rs. 5 sachet (Earlier, it had only a Rs. 2 scahet). Krunchoids, the brand introduced in FY14, has fared poorly and would be relaunched in FY15. At present, the company has a direct distribution network of 0.22m retail outlets . For FY14 it has reported healthy revenue growth of 17 % over FY13.
 
 
EBITDA margin drops :
Higher raw material costs, increased employee  costs as well as ad-spend resulted in the EBITDA margin sliding 180bps yoy. Higher raw material prices, especially of edible oil and packaging, have severely impacted the margin. As the company is expanding its distribution network in eastern and northern India, this has resulted in higher staff costs. Because of the new plant at Noida, depreciation has increased yoy. The effective income-tax rate has dropped 2,870bps. The company had a tax rate of 53.3% in 4QFY13. Net profit expanded 30% yoy.
 
 
Our Take :
 
We value the stock at a target price of Rs. 460, at a target PE of 28x
FY16e earnings. The ready-to-eat snacks market is growing ~15% per annum.
And around 40% to 45% of the market for salty snacks is unregulated. The
company is expanding its distribution in eastern and western India and
planning to broaden its product range. Considering that the major capex is
over and the company has improved its working-capital position, we expect
healthy free-cash-flows ahead. We expect the company to report revenue and earnings CAGRs over FY14-16 of 20% and 38% respectively. Risks: Higher
raw material prices, increase in competitive pressure and delay in the rollout of
products.
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varunk16
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Quote varunk16 Replybullet Posted: 17/May/2014 at 3:05pm
I've recently looked at this company but very little understanding so far... a few questions for those who've been looking at this.

a) Whats the entry barrier here ?How difficult is it for someone like Pepsi to pose a serious threat to them ?
b)Margins are average but bound to improve. any thoughts on the scalability of the business ?
c) Has anyone met the promoters ? Any thoughts/impressions ?

Also thoughts on whether this looks like a good long term bet..
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Arshavin23
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Quote Arshavin23 Replybullet Posted: 22/May/2014 at 5:26pm
Hi Varunk,

To answer some of your questions...

In this business, entry barriers are moderate. One does not require a huge amount of capital to get started on a small scale and then build up the business gradually. The cost of the equipment used to manufacture snack foods has gradually come down. However building a brand is a lot more difficult, it requires advertising and promotion and will take significant time for a newcomer to reach the distribution reach of a big player. So you have a situation whereby 9 players are controlling ~70% of the market as Mahesh has mentioned in his previous post. If you are able to carve out a niche for yourself, you will be able to do well. Pepsi has a pan India strategy and is catering to the mass market. In recent times, it has lost market share to regional players like DFMs Crax and Prataap's Yellow Diamond brand that have a more focused approach.

Scalability is also moderate and can come from two areas: 1) increase revenue per distribution outlet as the brand gains more acceptance.

2) With further growth, the fixed advertising expenses can be distributed over a larger volume. DFM advertises only on cartoon channels that have a national audience. Initially DFM was only selling in the Northern region and advertising nationally due to kids being their their main target customers. By entering the eastern and western regions, there will be some advertising efficiency as well. Recent advertising and promotion expenditure is on the higher side due to entering newer regions and new product launches. Going forward, this is expected to stabilize.

Plants are currently operating at 78% capacity utilization but the overhead costs are already being spent. These will remain at the current level even with increase in capacity utilization.

Regarding the promoters, they do communicate every quarter to update people on the business conditions. They are also transparent in mentioning the problems that they have recently faced with the launch of Krunchoid's. For additional info, you can refer to their earnings call documents on their website.
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navtej91
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Quote navtej91 Replybullet Posted: 22/May/2014 at 9:59pm
Why is company increasing its dividend when it needs to expand the market region wise beyond North or even need money for R&D in new products.??
Its operating on such thin margins i hope they better their margin by developing new product rather than throwing money as dividends
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Quote Arshavin23 Replybullet Posted: 23/May/2014 at 10:50am
The dividend increase is in line with capacity increase. Margins are depressed at the moment due to increased advertisement and promotion expenses, interest cost and one time write offs. The key driver for increased net margins will be lower interest costs as the company will repay its debt going forward as well as increased capacity utilization.

One must look forward and analyze how much will the company's two plants earn at full capacity and when these two plants will become debt free. The total potential is to earn revenues of around 325 crores. Their net margins will be around 6% - 8% which will provide them with profits in the range of 20 to 25 crores. Profits are close to free cash flow since working capital requirement is minimum, so at conservative 10x P/E or FCFF the company is worth 200 to 250 crores based on just the existing capacity. At a price of 250, we are not paying for any future growth that will come by reinvesting these cash flows in expansion opportunities.

The next couple of quarters will throw more light on whether their brand is successful in penetrating the western and eastern regions and how will the company's expansion strategy play out.
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navtej91
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Quote navtej91 Replybullet Posted: 24/May/2014 at 12:06pm
dividend increase I meant in terms.. % of facevalue of a share which has increased from 5% to 25% over last few years .. I hope they were conservative to keep it around 10-15% as You said they need to introduce new products and market new region and yes I like you point the next few quarter will give a better picture as homegrown brands like haldiram and bikaji etc may be competing for market share...
Yes this is how I also judge a FMCG company purely on Operating cash and working capital... Thanks for sharing ur view point
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maheshishah
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Quote maheshishah Replybullet Posted: 26/May/2014 at 12:19pm
Arshavin23 has answered most of the queries aptly....To add....
 
-- Significant portion of expense (more than 10 % of sales) is consumed by free gifts that go into the pack.....although for CRAX Corn Rings this gift is critical component, but, in subsequent product introductions that are planned in FY15, this expense component will be missing and even one success could offer good margin improvement for DFM.
 
---I believe FY15 should be a year of consolidation as far as distribution goes...If you look at distribution breakup closely, then, as against 1.20 lakh outlet coverage of North India, in West India DFm has already reached 60,000 outlets and in East India has reached 40,000 outlets.....there might be some closing down of outlets in West India and coverage getting deppened in East India, but, I don't see distribution reach in FY15 expanding aggresively till capacity augmentation plans are drawn up.....If you observe other impulsive category results closely like Dominos & Mc****, there seems to be visible slowdown in the category in Q4.....situation on ground seems to have improved in Q1FY15......In this backdrop, unless growth picks up substatially what i see is DFM concentrating more on new product launches and expanding offerings in existing products to utilise its distribution fully in FY15.....noida plant is capable of delivering this at fraction of greenfield cost, 30 % capacity can easily be added there to tackle this.....on distribution front there can be an attempt to explore untapped channels like modern retail as also institutional sales (like Railways) can be tapped....
 
---Once the distribution which is currently underutilised (in West & East) improves utilisation you will see visible improvement in margins....however, don't expect dramatic improvement ; as I have said before also, till FY16 expect EBITDA margins to remain in the range of 8.5-10.5 %....at the same time margins are unlikely to move substantially lower, say below 7 %, as we seem to have seen worst of margins already in FY14.....
 
---Rgdg. high dividend payment, its actually a good sign which reflects confidence of the management of improving cash flows and ability to efficiently tackle future fund requirements.....
 
----DFM is a clear long term story in which when rerating initiates it should be sharp and substantial....I believe once the expansion plans are drawn up, first phase of rerating should begin with real rerating happening before the delivery of expansion plans.....you see, markets will always value this business more from EV perspective rather than earnings perspective and so if markets sense aggressive revenue growth coming then rerating has to happen that is my assessment....atpresent, markets are still clueless as no plans are still revealed.....
 
Rgds.
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