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 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Fundamental
Message Icon Topic: Edelweiss Stock Future Analysis Free Tool Post Reply Post New Topic
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Topic: Edelweiss Stock Future Analysis Free Tool
    Posted: 27/Jan/2012 at 7:09pm
Edelweiss brokerage has just launched a new free fundamental analysis tool that makes a prediction on the future financial performance numbers of any stock.

http://www.edelweiss.in/Tools/whatif.aspx

Take the numbers with a pinch of salt & a bit of masala though - the future estimated numbers are all based on some kind of algorithm.

I put in "Titan Industries" for a WHAT IF analysis and this is what the tool says -

Time Horizon - 3 years
CMP: Rs. 206
Returns After 3 Years: 85.92%
Annualized: 21.57% CAGR
Target price: Rs. 383

STOCK PRICE SENSITIVITY TABLE

       Profit Growth (CAGR in %)
       14.00     18.50     22.96     27.50     32.00
PE
24.50     182     205     230     257     286
32.50     243     274     307     343     381
40.44     304     342     384     429     476
48.50     365     411     461     514     572
56.50     426     479     537     600     667

You can use the estimates provided by Edelweiss or you can use your own numbers for -

- Sales growth
- Ebidta Margins
- Dividend payout ratio
- PE

and so on.

Happy number crunching!
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rajnsharma
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Quote rajnsharma Replybullet Posted: 27/Jan/2012 at 7:24pm
Thanks smartcat for sharing it. I punched page and it expects Page to give a return of 1382% in 5 years. Hope the figures provided come trueBig%20smile
Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett
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paragdesai
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Quote paragdesai Replybullet Posted: 27/Jan/2012 at 7:30pm
Thanks Smartcat.

After your suggestion I started using Edelweiss Stock screener & found very useful.
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity ....
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Ravenrage
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Quote Ravenrage Replybullet Posted: 27/Jan/2012 at 7:52pm
Originally posted by rajnsharma



Thanks smartcat for sharing it. I punched page and it expects Page to give a return of 1382% in 5 years. Hope the figures provided come trueBig%20smile


37 k - price of 1 share !
Risk does not reside in price changes, but in miscalculations of intrinsic value .
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Ravenrage
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Quote Ravenrage Replybullet Posted: 27/Jan/2012 at 7:55pm
If figures stated by them turn out to be true , no reason why the Sensex can't be at at 100 k after 5 years .
Risk does not reside in price changes, but in miscalculations of intrinsic value .
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rajnsharma
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Quote rajnsharma Replybullet Posted: 27/Jan/2012 at 8:24pm
Originally posted by Ravenrage

If figures stated by them turn out to be true , no reason why the Sensex can't be at at 100 k after 5 years .
 
This is the problem with tools. No mathematical formula can capture the non-linear kind of growth which happens in a company's life.
 
Basantjee has a nice signature from Peter Lynch which explains this very well.


Edited by rajnsharma - 27/Jan/2012 at 8:24pm
Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett
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prabhakarkudva
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Quote prabhakarkudva Replybullet Posted: 27/Jan/2012 at 8:38pm
On its own its pretty useless actually. If you put in bluestar it will show you 0% sales growth for the next 5 year.

But its kind of useful if you change the sales growth estimation etc you can quickly figure out what CAGR you can expect.
Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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vidurchhabra
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Quote vidurchhabra Replybullet Posted: 27/Jan/2012 at 10:53pm
Yup pretty useless if you don't change the parameters, but kind of fun. For e. g. Without changing anything yes bank will be 50000 in 5 years ha!
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