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koolvalue
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Quote koolvalue Replybullet Topic: BASF
    Posted: 20/Aug/2011 at 9:02pm
I could not find a thread on BASF that is why I am posting
it here.

BASF globally targeting a sale of USD 100 billion
till 2020 with a growth rate of 2 to 3%.Say by 2020 India
becomes third/fourth largest economy and considering 5%
sales come from India,BASF INDIA would do a sale of USD 5 billion.
Presently roughly market cap/annual sales ratio is 0.8
If we apply same ratio the market cap could be usd 4 bln
which would be roughly 18000 cr
Present market cap is 2500 cr.

These are just numbers.Fundamentally company is shifting
focuss from commodity player to actual end supplier to
consumer through aquisitions.Operates in some of very
high growth areas like eng plastics,Solar molecules,new
construction chemicals and agrochems.R & D activities
of the company can be game changer in some of the areas
it operates.
I have not invested here but Iam just putting the stock
for discussion.

Edited by koolvalue - 20/Aug/2011 at 9:03pm
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smarar
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Quote smarar Replybullet Posted: 20/Aug/2011 at 12:40pm
Let me say my investing experience with BASF

I used to hold BASF India .

Good consistent dividend firm.
It was growing well before it tried to merge CIBA India to BASF India. After merger, Capital Structures of BASF India increased .So now EPS could not grow much . It will take time . Look at RONW , it started shrinking due to merger.
Dividend hike comes in either 3 or 4 years.

It will take time to grow after merger with CIBA is fully realized
Reasons for exiting
CIBA merger    
Patience always helps. Do your own research when investing in stocks
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 20/Aug/2011 at 7:47am
Smarar, Are you saying the value of the firm reduced post merger?
 
I thought some synergies was involved between the two firms
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rapidriser
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Quote rapidriser Replybullet Posted: 20/Aug/2011 at 8:55am
Originally posted by subu76



Smarar, Are you saying the value of the firm reduced post merger?
 
I thought some synergies was involved between the two firms


The Ciba division taken over by BASF is a low margin business with all the characteristics of a commodity business. It is a part of the worldwide process of consolidation amongst the big chemical cos as they try to cut costs to stave off competition from Chinese & Indian cos.

The best I can say about investing in BASF India is that you will get returns higher than a bank FD and you will get consistent dividends.
When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée
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koolvalue
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Quote koolvalue Replybullet Posted: 20/Aug/2011 at 11:08am
Companies like BASF,Bayer,DOW,Monsanto spend a lot of money in
R&D.In technology existing product cycles are very short
and new technology is always in corridor.Chemical business
on the contrary works on long product cycles.

Most of molecules(specially agrochem) presently used in
India were launched by these firms 50 to 60 years back.These molecules will be banned now world wide as they
are not environment friendly(again govts depending on taxes
paid by these companies decide that).New molecules wiil
definately will be launched in Indian markets also.None
of Indian company is geared for this challange.

Not only that nanotechnology applications in solar molecules will really question the way power is prodused
presently.BASF is one of the pioneer in this field.

Engineering plastics are really replacing metals in
most applications in a big way.

Most of these statements are forward looking.But that is
the way stock market works.Now only thing remains that
how do we find conviction to invest in these gems.

Presently I am not invested in this stock but hope that
as more and more senior members post their views my conviction will build and I will be able to make decision.
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 21/Aug/2011 at 1:12pm
Questions which crops in my mind is
1. Can these products be copied by the local players?
2. Will these get introduced through the listed arms


Edited by subu76 - 21/Aug/2011 at 1:14pm
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 21/Aug/2011 at 1:13pm
Originally posted by rapidriser

The Ciba division taken over by BASF is a low margin business with all the characteristics of a commodity business. It is a part of the worldwide process of consolidation amongst the big chemical cos as they try to cut costs to stave off competition from Chinese & Indian cos.
 
Thanks a lot. My question is answered
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smarar
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Quote smarar Replybullet Posted: 21/Aug/2011 at 10:08pm
Originally posted by subu76

Smarar, Are you saying the value of the firm reduced post merger?
 
I thought some synergies was involved between the two firms


Along with rapidriser 's comments .

If  we look at the CIBA India's financial statements , its net profit tax was decreasing as well as dividends too .Now we look at BASF India , which was steadily growing year on year in Net profit after  tax  and thereby  hiking dividends on 2-3 years basis , which will increase shareholder's returns for the long term .  They are steady grower. But when merging a cyclical company into steady grower based on a worldwide merger of the both the companies  , it will take some time (probably minimum range 3 to 5 years ) to fully realize the investment of CIBA India .I think the most benefit to this sort of merger  is CIBA India shareholders rather than BASF India shareholders as their company are getting merged to a steady grower company , which will benefit to them in the longer term   

Patience always helps. Do your own research when investing in stocks
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