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Equity Buff
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Quote Equity Buff Replybullet Topic: Hotel & Travel Related Stocks.
    Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:13pm
Dear Basant,
 
India has just been ranked the number 4th most attractive and satisfying tourist destination in the world by "2006 Conde Nast Readers Travel Awards. This is a big jump and by this we have overtaken many of the developed tourist destinations in the world. In the next few years with proper Govt promotion of India and better infrastructure India could be at the top spot in the world for tourism.
 
 
Given the above which hotel stocks would you bet on (Mid cap, Small Cap),
specially those hotels having plans to start a chain of budget hotels with pan India presence ?
 
Other related sector stocks that could also be a big beneficiary of the above ?
 
Rgds
Equity Buff
 
 
 
 
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:54pm

I would like to put in a few of my stuff if its okay.

 
ITH(International Travle House) is a good bet. Damani jee recommends it. Also, what about VIP, with travel on the rise and it's said that in 2008 alone, 80 million airline trips will be taken by indians.
 
 
Please feel free to throw light on this sector everyone. Thanks and Good luck.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:27pm
Great discussion.The total travel spend in 2010 will grow to Rs 39258 crores in 2011 from rs 14,360 crores today. Now let see what a person needs when he travels
 
Money changers, Tickets and Tour arrangements :
Luggage
Hotels and resorts
Airlines
 
For Money changers tickets and tour arrangements I would bet on Thomas Cook. This company should hugely benefit as Indians will not travel within India but also abroad.At a current market price of rs 519 it trades at a market cap of Rs 750 crores which looks miniscule when one looks at the big picture.
 
ITHL I am told does a lot of work for ITC so ITC will never give it higher rates because ITHL's sales is ITC;s cost. Not saying that it would not do well but I would put my Thomas COOk as a  surer bet.
 
Never studied VIP so cannot comment in detail on the financials but I would think that a person who travels in the next 5 years would carry American Tourister or Samsonite how many people we know have bought VIP in the last 10 years? . VIP is more value rather then growth.
 
The biggst of them will be Indian Hotels. It is getting into a lot of related activities and the stock should triple in the next 5 years. A must have for people looking at the travel Industry. We did a discussion some time back on this forum where we saw that Indian Hotels is no more Wah Taj!

 

I would not like to buy TAj GVK for the travel boom .Taj GVK is not that spread out and has benefited from its location at Hyderabad. due to the BPO boom.

 

Airlines here one could play a wild card by buying Deccan or Spice but no one just one has made money in the world buying airlines companies.Te total number ofa irlines wil increase from 175 to 500 over the next 4 years.

 

 



Edited by basant - 07/Sep/2006 at 2:28pm
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:40pm
VIP is wanting to become world number 2 in next 5 years. Also, their sales at around 500 crore after merger with blowplast and a market cap of just 250 crore is compelling. Yes I agree, VIP is definitely value. But I think this is a "value" pick that CAN go onto become a growth stock, and in the next  4 years, its focus is going to be very concentrated with all the boom in travel etc. and also since most people are underestimating VIP to Samsonite, and hence stock price appreciation could be really good! The VIP management has realized the potential I think and that is why they have made some changes, including the BlowPlast merger.
 
Additionally, I feel growth is a by-product of value. At some point a stock has to be a "value pick" where only a few people believe in it and when the value becomes recognized by the market, its becomes a growth story. Look at Mcdowell, Pantaloon in the initial years. They were value picks then. Now they are growth.
 
 
Anyone may discuss if they so wish! Good luck


Edited by omshivaya - 07/Sep/2006 at 2:43pm
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:47pm
Thanks for the inputs.
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:50pm
no problem sir. thanks for all your hard work and inputs too. great site as i have always said.
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 5:14pm
In the travel & Tourism sector, would you also look at following stocks:
 
1. Advani Hotels & Resort (casino in Goa!)- management track record?
2. Smaller hotels like Sayaji, Viceroy?
3. ITC Hotels (part of main ITC)
 
Let's find out if there are more... Also any idea whether there is pure restaurant play listed? Basanjee, your fav topic (Kachauri/Jalebi!)
 
Thanks
 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 5:38pm
Mouth watering. But no pure listed plays in the restaurant space are available right now. ADvani Hotels is another very good play. they have their casino just a few miles away from Goa and are building another one in Rajasthan.Kamal Kabra a very seasoned investor who bought Trent at Rs 150 has taken a stake in Advani Hotels.
 
Viceroy is also getting into a big expansion over the next 2 years and will do very well.Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and some other smart investors have got into this one as well.


Edited by basant - 07/Sep/2006 at 5:39pm
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