Did anyone see "Beyond the Market" on Bloomberg UTV. I caught the second half of the 90 minute show. Signs of the bull frenzy:

1. The show was telecast live. Even their awards ceremonies dont get that treatment.
2. The large Taj Lands End hall was PACKED. A lot of people were standing throughout.
3. People talking about Sensex@40,000 by 2020. RJ saying even that's not the limit... Yeah right.
4. Superhilarious audience questions (Scroll down below)


Okay it was in the form of a panel discussion consisting of RJ, Madhu Kela and Ridham Desai. The discussion mostly focused on macro forecasts like:

1. India's people are expected to save 1-1.5 trillion dollars by 2020. All this money or most of it will come to equity markets in one way or the other in the form of equity or via pension funds. RJ strongly wants pension funds to be allowed to invest in stocks or at least mutual fund.

2. Growth rates will only go up and up- from 8-9% now to 10% and above. Ridham Desai says India can reach China's present size by 2020 (I wonder where China will be by then).

3. Consumption, real estate, power- these are the key sectors of the next decade as per Ridham Desai. RJ says the demand for financial services could be so high that banks might even run out of manpower to meet the surge of customers.

4. Lots of advice on how to make money in the market. Not tips, but good solid stuff like "Stay invested for ast least 3-5 years" (RJ). Ridham Desai and RJ said business news channels should play the lead role in educating newly minted investors.

Then came the wonderful awesome questions from the audience:
Q. Whats the next trigger in the markets post 20000? RJ: How would I know? (or something like that)
Q. What is RJ's opinion on liquor and other such vice-related industries? RJ: Oh gambling, liquor, resorts all will be good.
Q. How much has RIL contributed in Sensex moving from 18k to 20k? The questioner wanted to know exactly how much and then he wanted RJ to accept that RIL had not underperformed at all.
Q. No idea what this last guy was asking but he started talking about XL Telecom!

Opinions on the participating trio:
RJ: HE WORE A SUIT! (Actually a blazer) He looked very very uncomfortable in it. Also kept chewing gutkha throughout and playing with his phone.At one point he actually answered a phone call while Madhu Kela was speaking! His performance and the talking points he raised, however were superb as usual. Also, many lines that really brought down the house. My father was seeing him for the first time ever, and he agreed very vocally when RJ spoke about holding stocks for 3-5 years. (Dad is the kind of investor who never sells. EVER! He bought Reliance in 1998 and never even mentioned it until 2006.)

Ridham Desai: Best of the lot. The other two were more vocal but he was impressive and had a clear grip. No bombast like RJ or slippery sliminess like Madhu Kela.

Madhu Kela: Actually sat and tooted his Mutual Fund and SIP horn. RJ's face change was a sight to see. Started playing with his own mobile, following RJ's snub. Very annoying, also kept talking over RJ and Ridham Desai.

I'm waiting for the video though... it was a pretty good show.

Sensex at 40,000 by 2020 means only a CAGR growth of abt 7% from now.  Isn't that a very pessimistic view !

How many of today's sensex stocks will remain as sensex stocks in 2020 ? There will be a big churn i think to reflect the higher services composition of gdp which can be 70% in 2020 ?

 Going through my old posts at the "Ganesha and the Sensex" makes we weep . It was unsystematic, disorganized and the reader gets headaches. 30 people used to read the posts. I wonder who? Basantjee probably had the biggest headaches... I guess.

Coming to new midcap and smallcap ideas, our fellows at TED have burned the midnight oil to come with multibaggers. Way to go!
I wish to make a point here unlike in the bull market 2003-2008 when growth investors had a good time. The bull market from 2013-2019 is the period of mixing value attributes to growth investing style. And the next bull market from 2031-2037 is following the value investing style. I would reckon that having had a talk with Basantji a long time back the Sensex would be at 55,000-60,000 by 2018 end and somewhere at 1,00,000-1,10,000 by the end of 2036. So Enjoy Investing!