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Stock Synopsis
 The Equity Desk Forum :Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios! :Stock Synopsis
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Topic: PLETHICO PHARMA
    Posted: 27/Jul/2010 at 8:09pm

PLETHICO PHARMACEUTICALS 

 CMP 387   FV 1   MARKET CAP 1315 CR

IT IS MAINLY INTO HERBAL PRODUCTS AND NUTRACEUTICALS(food supplements etc)

ESTABLISHED IN 1991, PLETHICO CHANGED ITS FOCUS TO HERBAL PRODUCTS AFTER A FEW YEARS AND RECENTLY TOOK OVER A US BASED BRANDED NUTRITIONAL PLAYER –NATROL TO STRENGTHEN ITS PLACE IN THE LIFESTYLE PRODUCTS CATEGORY OF NUTRITIONAL PRODUCTS.

PLETHICO ALSO BENEFITS BY INTRODUCING NATROL’S PRODUCTS IN NON US MARKETS. IT ALSO GETS TO CROSS SELL ITS OWN PRODUCTS THROUGH NATROL’S DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL IN US.

RESTRUCTURING OF MANUFACTURING OPERATIONS:

PLETHICO HAS UNDERTAKEN CAPEX OF AROUND 200 CRORES TO SET UP MANUFACTURING BASE NEAR DUBAI, UAE AND HAS A TAX HOLIDAY OF 50 YRS.  THIS WILL SAVE THE CYCLE TIME AND BENEFITS WILL BE VISIBLE FROM FY 12 ONWARDS.

PRODUCTS:

HERBAL PRODUCTS INCLUDE TRAVISIL RANGE OF COUGH DROPS, MOUNTAIN HERBZ, NUTRITIONAL PRODUCTS LIKE COACH’S FORMULA ETC

INDIAN MARKETS NOW OFFER STRONG GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR ITS NUTRITIONAL SUPPLEMENT SEGMENT FROM NATROL STABLE.

FINANCIALS

YEAR

DEC 08

DEC 09

DEC 10E

DEC 11E

DEC 12E

SALES(CR)

904

1243

1691

1981

2225

NP

89

187

223

237

347

EPS

26

55

65

69

101

ROE

13.5

22.9

22

19.2

22.9

P/BV

3

2.1

1.6

1.2

0.9

 

Projections for dec10 to dec12 from crisil report(which I feel are conservative)

FOR Q1 ENDED MARCH 10, SALES WAS 335 CRORES, NP 58 CR (before extraordinary items) EPS FOR Q1 IS 17 (not annualised)

DEBT EXPECTED AROUND 560 CRORES FOR FY 10 WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE GOING FORWARD.

PUBLIC SHAREHOLDING IS ONLY 13%. PROMOTERS HOLD 87% STAKE BUT AS AT MARCH 2010, 90% OF THIS WAS PLEDGED. BUT AS PER BSE ANNOUNCEMENT, IN MAY PLEDGING HAS COME DOWN TO AROUND 80% DUE TO REVOKING OF PLEDGE.

POSITIVES:

GOOD GROWTH PROPSECTS FOR THE COMPANY DUE TO NATROL ACQUISITION AND ITS SYNERGIES

MARGIN IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED POST 2011 DUE TO BENEFITS OF DUBAI MANUFACTURING BASE

CHEAP VALUATIONS OF AROUND 6 PE—CHANCES OF RERATING ARE THERE

NEGATIVES:

PROMOTER PLEDGING

OUTSTANDING FCCB FOR WHICH COMPANY HAS BEEN MAKING PROVISIONS.

TECHNICALS:

THE STOCK IS STUCK IN A VERY NARROW RANGE OF 330 TO 410 FROM DEC 09 ALMOST SINCE 7 -8 MONTHS.  NOT TOO MUCH BY WAY OF TECHNICALS.

disc: holding the stock.

 

 

 

 

 

Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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karn
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Quote karn Replybullet Posted: 27/Jul/2010 at 9:02pm
Hitesh, what is FCCB in outstanding FCCB??
“Invert, always invert.”
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mukulgarga
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Quote mukulgarga Replybullet Posted: 27/Jul/2010 at 9:06pm
Dear Hitesh
 
Really Love you for your stock selection.
 
I have been holding the stock since 110/- and will hold for very long time.
It's my favorite stock and would be giving you more inputs on it.
 
And by the way its Face Value is Rs 10 and not Re1. I am famously known in my circles to be allergic to split values unless genuinely needed.


Edited by mukulgarga - 27/Jul/2010 at 9:10pm
I always knew I was going to be rich. I never doubted it for a minute.
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srisaurabh2000
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Quote srisaurabh2000 Replybullet Posted: 27/Jul/2010 at 10:31pm
Hitesh,
Have you looked at Venus Remedies - the numbers for them are also interesting?
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 27/Jul/2010 at 11:38pm
Originally posted by mukulgarga

And by the way its Face Value is Rs 10 and not Re1. I am famously known in my circles to be allergic to split values unless genuinely needed.


Thanks for correcting the typo error. Would like your inputs on this one.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 27/Jul/2010 at 12:01pm
Originally posted by karn

Hitesh, what is FCCB in outstanding FCCB??


Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds. Each bond is having a certain face value denominated in foreign currency and is convertible into a fixed number of shares at a future date at a pre determined price. I cant find the details of how many FCCBs are outstanding and what the terms of conversion are. But since the stock is close to its high, I guess all fccbs will be converted which might lead to some equity dilution but then it will also reduce the cost of borrowing if used to pay up debt.

I also expect some method of dilution of promoter stake to comply with SEBI diktat to reduce stake by 5% each year and bring it down to 75% or less. Here, promoter
holding is around 87%.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 27/Jul/2010 at 12:03pm
FCCBs can lead to forex loss because they are denominated in some foreign currency(usually USD) and any big fluctuation in the currency rate may lead to notional forex loss.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 27/Jul/2010 at 12:07pm
Originally posted by srisaurabh2000

Hitesh,

Have you looked at Venus Remedies - the numbers for them are also interesting?


Dont know too much about venus remedies.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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