Below are a few facts for the company. I dont think anything else is require to analyse this company (in terms of numbers).
- MCAP: 285 crores
- approx 73000 MTA capacity (vs 39000 MTA)
- Approximate NET fixed asset = 320 cr (45 cr + 275 cr)
- Approximate depreciation = 24 cr (6 per quarter)
- Equity: 161 cr
- Debt: approx 175 cr (guessing)
- Plant resumed from 1st May 2010
- Cash - Negligible
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- Concerns cheaper imports
- Positive - economies of scale ... but how big this can be?
- 2008 PAT margins = 11% (crude prices at peak in this financial year)
- Prices of crude have have a 1 month lagged effet on octanol and butano
Crude => propylene / Naphtha => Octonal / Butanol
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It doesnt matter that this company is the only company in India to produce Octonal / Butanol ... Bocause one can import. And even their annual report seems to suggest that there is competition in terms of cheaper imports.
Currently the capacities are running at 100% utilisation.
Assuming the sales for FY12 @ 80Rs / Kg and 100% capacity utilisation
Sales = 73000* 1000 (ton to kg) * 80 (rs) = 584 crores
Assuming margin of 11% PAT = 64 crores
MCAP: 285 crores
But even after putting all these numbers ... I dont get how to value these kind of companies.
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Liquadation value = 320 crore (Fixed asset) - 175 crores (debt) = 145 crores.
Sorry for a unstructured post ... dint have time to structure it. I have no interest in the stock except for the evaluation purpose. I want to understand how to value these kind of companies.
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