It will be the most preferred buy-out candidate post 2009 because it has pan India presence, huge network (400+ branches), no known promoter, reasonable mcap (5K+) Cr and willingness to exit (from existing management). But story is not this. Story is what CBoP can become by 2009. CBoP is unique story in making. It has dark past, struggling present (NPA) but bright future. Uniqueness of CBoP lies in takeover/amalgamation of smaller banks. It has sallowed BoP, LKB etc. etc. I think management is preparing itself to become big so that it can get bigger and bigger takeover cheque. Remember Takeovers are not done on fundamentals but done of assets and future promise. Recall vodafone buyout, Corus buyout and that Hindalco's buyout.

A bank with 400+ branches can easily be sold at 5-7 BUSD. It is conservative figure. CBoP is going vary cheap. YES Bank with 30 branches fetches 4K+ mcap whereas CBoP is is just 5K+ for 400 branches.

Now take non-believer stand. Will ICICI bank be sold, no. Will HDFC Bank, no (for next 5-7 years), KMB, no for sure. No buyout will tarket PSU Banks (not allowed). Then what is next most probable candidate ? it is CBoP. In case it improves on NPA front or makes few more acquisitions, it will benefit shareholders.

CBoP has one zing thing. Which I like in IFCI as well. It is willingness to sell from existing management/promoter.

In IFCI, I don't have margin of safety (as I looked very late) but CBoP looks good on margin as well.

Only short-term issue could be interest rate related fluctuations but one willing to store till 2009, one should take position now or at decline. Mugerilals pls help with support levels..... It is multi-bagger in making. Right sector. Right signals. Right horse. It is 101% takeover target.

 

any views on centurion bank.the stock doesnt seem to move above 40 since last many trading sessions.is there any bad news?