Joined: 10/Oct/2010
Location: Sweden
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 158
Posted: 19/Nov/2010 at 10:44am
from edelweiss report --> Outlook and valuations: Growth story intact; maintain ‘BUY’
With our merchant price assumptions of INR 5 / kwh, we expect firm ferro alloy
prices, sale of dump from Zambian coal mines and higher cash balance leading to
uptick in other income to cushion any impact due to lower merchant power sales.
We expect NVL’s profitability to be stable (INR 4.3–5.0 bn) till FY13 after factoring
lower merchant realizations and higher tax outgo but offset by 64 MW power
capacity addition and Zambian coal sales in FY12. The next phase of earnings
growth will be driven by commissioning of 300 MW power capacities in FY14. Given
its relatively steady cash flows and strong balance sheet, we find the stock
attractive from a long term perspective. We maintain ‘BUY’ on the stock with a
SOTP target price of INR 520 (based on diluted equity).
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