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Comparing Stocks within the same sector
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Message Icon Topic: Which private Bank will foreigners buy? Post Reply Post New Topic
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xbox
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 28/Jan/2007 at 4:30am
If you were to accumulate one of the private sector banks at current market prices which among the following would it be?
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First of all, I will advise all TED members to take extra caution in financial/banking sector for fresh exposures. Interest rates are on upward journey and bottom-lines are under-pressures. AngryBank executives/CEO will try to show scenic picture till fall. Be aware of them. It did not remain soft play any more, Ppl with minimum 5 year perspective should jump-in here (if decided).
These upward interest rates are sowing seeds of market crash in 10-12 months. Signs are not positive. FIIs are turned into bare spectators. Valuations are against price. Liquidity flow is uncertain. Thumbs%20Down
As far as opinion on different banks are concern here is my take...
1. CBoP - Must buy/Hold. It will pick some more weak bank. Now all promoters of weak banks have learned one lessen - sell it to strong bank before RBI axe. This thinking is/will working well for CBoP. It is the Bank in making. (+ mcap, promoter, restructuring: - interest rate, interest rate).
 
2. YES Bank - Must Hold. Fresh buy is not advised. With interest rate being up-words, strengths if SME will weaken and so bottom-line of YES Bank. (+ top-line, differentiation from commodity like banking: - interest rate, mcap).
 
3. KMB - Must hold till demerger. Fresh buy is strongly denied. KMB is one man show. (+ restrcuring/demerger : - too many).
 
Given liquidity, I would pick CBoP on dips.
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 05/Feb/2007 at 11:50am
Basant jee,
Post 2009, will it make sense to be with shikari or shikar ?
Deals will not be done on fundamantals. Valuations will reach roof-tops. What is your take ?
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 12:01pm
Great point. The shikar makes more money in deals like these - always. LIke see the Tata-COrus deal to start with. Tata buys a company at 12 times whereas its own multiple is 6 times so obviously that excess baggage would hurt but if you are a shareholder in the shikaar it would be great.
 
What do you think would be the take over Banks in 2009?
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 12:21pm

I have similar views. A strong bank could become shikar (like Corus) and vice-versa. This takeover matrix looks very complex. A weak bank if not taken-over by somebody will sink shareholder value whereas takeover for a strong bank may not necessarily enhance shareholder value. It is Confused

There will be more misses than kisses. I have shikari (ibulls), shikar (yes bank) and traveler (KMB). I think all banking stock will not make money from here. Sometime back I made point for NBFCs. I think these NBFCs (rel cap, fortis, ibulls etc.) will make good moves.
One thing is quite sure ..takeovers will happen at stretched levels. It represents opportunities as well as confusion. A single pick can make fortune and within 3 years. and vice-versa. So Basant jee, I guess basket approach is best one. Go on shopping and buy some appealing candidates and some ugly candidates. Buy second one first.


Edited by vipul - 06/Feb/2007 at 12:23pm
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 1:41pm
the two southern banks kvb and sib could also bcom shikars infact fii already own considerable % in these banks though one needs to be patient in this matter as even after 09 it will take some time till it finally happens has anyone looked at the shareholding pattern of hdfc bank can it also be taken over
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 3:06pm

I 2nd that view Vipul jee.
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 3:21pm
the share holding patern of hdfc bank is as follows 21% with hdfc 32.74 with fii 11.6 with public and 8.75 with bodies corporate another 20 with custodian against global depo. so it does seem possible that a large mnc bank can buy a sizable stake in hdfc bank also maybe 30-40%.only the time will tell
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 06/Feb/2007 at 3:33pm
I had highlighted my views on the first page of this topic.
 
I think HDFC will reverse merge with HDFC Bank so as to thrawt that takeover bid.Whatever be it I feel that buying and holding shares only on the bais of takeover becomes a mistimed move quite often. If the company is doing well it opens up endless opportunities. For example RD has been recommending SIB for the last 10 years but nothing has happened whereas if anyone would have bought the stronger Banks then he would have made money takeover or no takeover.
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