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praveen
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Joined: 09/May/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 543
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   Posted: 30/Dec/2009 at 10:07am |
Their annual report is out. The quality is excellent. There are 8 pages on "Management Discussion & Analysis" providing great details about the business and related issues.
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The quest for knowledge is a never ending Journey
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smartcat
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Joined: 29/Mar/2007
Location: India
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Posts: 4243
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Posted: 31/Dec/2009 at 12:05pm |
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Management Discussion & Analysis is the only section that needs to be read before investing in a stock.
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praveen
Senior Member
Joined: 09/May/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 543
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Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 9:34am |
Blowout earnings - Q2 EPS at 14.14; EPS of 3.5 due to Real estate (selling 5% of the Andheri property); Historically they have a better 2nd half compared to 1st. Full year Core EPS should be around 40/- Another 20-25 would be added because of Real estate.
FY11 EPS may be closer to ~80 (40-45 core and 35-40 due to real estate)
Fair-value is close to 500 but it may shoot upto 600-700 given the robust earnings in the next 7-8 quarters. It may also attract FII attention.
Disclosure - I have added to my positions here and have vested interest in this counter.
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smartcat
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Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 11:31am |
This article gives a brief overview about the results, business and capacity expansion.
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abhishekbasu
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Joined: 07/Sep/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 335
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Posted: 13/Jan/2010 at 11:32am |
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I had read a brokerage report by Anand Rathi dated 28 Dec 2009, where they are expecting a June end EPS of 73 (excluding property income) and 135 (including property income). I don't know what the basis of their assumptions are.
My expectation is around 70-80 EPS including the property income for this year. Where I think the value might come in is from PE expansion. Historically, Supreme has ha da PE in the 10-15 band. Conservatively, at 10PE the stock might reach 800 by June, although I am not counting on it.
Disclosure: I started this thread and hold Supreme as a sizeable portion of my portfolio. My opinions are subject to be biased.
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praveen
Senior Member
Joined: 09/May/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 543
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Posted: 14/Jan/2010 at 1:48pm |
Originally posted by abhishekbasu
I had read a brokerage report by Anand Rathi dated 28 Dec 2009, where they are expecting a June end EPS of 73 (excluding property income) and 135 (including property income). I don't know what the basis of their assumptions are.
My expectation is around 70-80 EPS including the property income for this year. Where I think the value might come in is from PE expansion. Historically, Supreme has ha da PE in the 10-15 band. Conservatively, at 10PE the stock might reach 800 by June, although I am not counting on it.
Disclosure: I started this thread and hold Supreme as a sizeable portion of my portfolio. My opinions are subject to be biased.
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Ideally P/E multiple should only be applied to recurring earnings. But you may be right in Supreme getting P/E re-rating given there is hardly any FII/DII holding here.
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praveen
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Posted: 28/Jan/2010 at 10:16am |
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Something is cooking here. Post the results volumes have been very high. It's not falling with the falling market. IMHO some strong buyer is using the market fall as buying opportunity
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smartcat
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Joined: 29/Mar/2007
Location: India
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Posted: 29/Jan/2010 at 3:20pm |
| It's not falling with the falling market |
If you happen to be close to a table made out of wood, touch it !!
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