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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 31/Dec/2009 at 11:13am
Thnx Hitesh, looking forward to more intelligent discussion before locking the money.
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 31/Dec/2009 at 11:15am
Originally posted by manish_okhade

Thnx Hitesh, looking forward to more intelligent discussion before locking the money.


Hi,
You can reciprocate with your views on JOCIL.
Please go through it and let me have your viewpoint.

Hitesh.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2010 at 12:41pm
HERE IS SOME MORE DETAILS OF THIS COMPANY.

CUSTOMERS:


Hindustan Unilever, GlaxoSmithKline, Nestle, Koeleman, Global Green, Heinz and Dabur (foods); Pfizer, Cipla,
GlaxoSmithKline, Reckitt Benckiser, Ranbaxy and Himalaya (pharmaceuticals); United Breweries, SABMiller, Asia Pacific Breweries and South Asia Breweries (beer); United Spirits, Pernod Ricard, Diageo, Radico and Bacardi (liquor) and Coca Cola and Pepsi (soft drinks).


For the year 2008, there was a tax write back of around 39 crores and for fy09 there was increased cost of interest to the tune of 20 crores and these together have contributed to decline in profits from 160 crores in 08 to 107 crores in 09 inspite of sales increasing from 1148 crores(08) to 1438 crores.(09)


PROMOTER HOLDING IS 74% -- NO PLEDGING.
A Mr Dilip Damle holds 20% stake.
No MF/FII holding.
MARKET CAP 1257 CRORES

FINANCIALS

YEAR                     05              06              07               08                 09              H1FY10
SALES                  470           474            596             1148             1324              632
NET PROFIT        31              24               33               160               107               97

EQUITY CAPITAL IS 17.47 CRORES AND THERE ARE AROUND 8.735 CRORE OUTSTANDING SHARES OF RS 2 EACH.

IN LAST FEW QUARTERS THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SCORCHING GROWTH BUT THE COMPANY IS CHUGGING ALONG AND BASED ON GROWING DEMAND FROM BEVERAGES, FMCG AND PHARMA COMPANIES, THERE WOULD BE SUSTAINED GROWTH.

TECHNICALS

THE STOCK MADE ITS ALL TIME HIGH OF 360 IN JAN 08 AND FELL DOWN TO FORM A BOTTOM OF 45 IN OCT 08 AND THEN RALLIED TO POST A HIGH OF 148 IN MAY08, THEN FELL TO A LOW OF 90 AND SINCE MAY HAS BEEN IN AN UPWARD SLOPING TRIANGLE FORMATION. THE DOWNSIDE SUPPORT COMES IN THE RANGE OF 130-135 LEVELS.

THE BREAKOUT FROM THIS TRIANGLE IS AT AROUND 155 LEVELS AND ONCE THIS HAPPENS THERE COULD BE SHARP UPMOVE.


TO ME THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE A LOW RISK MODERATE RETURN KIND OF STOCK.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2010 at 3:03pm
Thnx Hitesh.
 
Let me know if something wrong below:
 
FV is reduced by 1/5 so no of shares would be 8.735 Cr. This gives HY FY09-10 PE of 12.86 and if assuming that next 2 qtrs will give NP of approx 50 Cr then FY10 PE will be 8.5 at CMP of 144.
 
Now i checked with Moneycontrol charts that following is a historic PE
 
EPS         Prise    PE
FY 05 28.53 43 1.507185
FY 06 21.69 88 4.057169
FY 07 31.01 112 3.611738
FY 08 91.79 235 2.560192
FY 09 61.68 114 1.848249
 
If my above reading is correct then mkt seems to did not pay such high PE of 8 in the past so doeas it mean its still expensive?
 
EPS is on pg 11 of AR and prise is gathered from Moneycontrol .


Edited by manish_okhade - 01/Jan/2010 at 3:04pm
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2010 at 5:40pm
There is something wrong about the data from moneycontrol. Maybe something to do with split of the stock. I think earnings are on 10 rs FV stock and pe could have been calculated on basis of price of a Re 1 Fv stock (considering it to be 10Rs stock value)

Otherwise it does not make any sense.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2010 at 6:04pm
Originally posted by hit2710

There is something wrong about the data from moneycontrol. Maybe something to do with split of the stock. I think earnings are on 10 rs FV stock and pe could have been calculated on basis of price of a Re 1 Fv stock (considering it to be 10Rs stock value)

Otherwise it does not make any sense.
 
Above is a typo, its split for FV of Rs 2/-?
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2010 at 6:53pm
Religareonline people seem to be more accurate than moneycontrol.

Here is eps for particular years adjusted on face value of Rs2

            05       06       07           08       09
eps        5.7      4.3       6            18        12
price 14-44    44-94   87-255    45-360    82-154

The price indicated is high low in that particular year.

For practical purposes consider 05 as the year 04-05 and so on for the high low data.

So you can calculate the pe range for the data provided and as can be seen it is all over the place and I feel it is stastically not too significant or consistent.

Currently it seems to be a good level to buy.

Biggest problem with this company seems to be the lumpiness of earnings from quarter to quarter and on year to year.

But looking at the price range for each year, if you get in at the correct price, there is almost 50% to be made each year.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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manish_okhade
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Quote manish_okhade Replybullet Posted: 01/Jan/2010 at 8:55pm
Hitesh,
 
Nice analysis!
 
Just thinking that even if i have entered at higher prise of 44 in FY05 still i would be in 100% profit in FY09 at lower band of prise of 82. I am doubling the money as a very bad investor in 4 years :-).
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