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EquityInv
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Quote EquityInv Replybullet Topic: Indian Bank - High RoE RoA decent value
    Posted: 19/Nov/2009 at 11:24am
Bit Background:

Headquarted in Chennai, Indian Bank [INDIANB] is a leading bank in South India with widespread presence in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Pondicherry. It was nationalised in 1969. It is a medium-sized bank and its balance sheet size stood at Rs 84,122 crore in FY 2009. It has 1,642 branches.

    In the current decade, the bank has seen a turn-around. At the end of March 2000, bad loans, or net non-performing assets, formed 16% of Indian bank's net advances. In FY06 it absorbed all the losses in its capital, which fell to Rs 744 crore from Rs 4,574 crore in the previous year. Since then, Indian Bank's profit has grown at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% every year, while its balance sheet has grown at a CAGR of 21%. This shows that it has enough reach and scale to leverage.

I feel below are few strong points :

1) Consistent RoE of > 21% since last 5 years
2) RoA > 1.5 since last 3 years..
3) Gross NPA of 0.91% as on 30.09.2009
4) NIM stood at more than 3.5% in last six financial years
5) FY09 Book Vale Rs.156. Available at P/BV=1.
6) Available at P/E = 5.4 at current market cap of Rs.6770 crores and div. yield of > 3%..

     2009     2008     2007     2006     2005                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
RoA     1.59     1.53     1.5     1.17     1.11
RoE     22.03     21.18     22.59     22.24     21.74
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deveshkayal
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 20/Nov/2009 at 12:29pm
Are you sure about NIMs ? As far as I know, only PNB (among the PSUs) has NIMs > 3.5%..
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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Quote EquityInv Replybullet Posted: 20/Nov/2009 at 9:15am
Devesh,

I also had same doubt on NIM.. but here is the source http://ddshankar.wordpress.com/2009/07/04/indian-bank-the-dark-horse/....
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 20/Nov/2009 at 9:34am
Such numbers from a PSU bank is commendable.
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett
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master
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Quote master Replybullet Posted: 20/Nov/2009 at 9:55am
IB's NIMs have been consistently 3%+.
 
FY09 BV was however more like 127,  so P/BV near 1.30  link
P/BV for FY10 estimates are around 1.0.
 
Other points:
1. CASA is healthy at 31%, at par with PSU industry average.
2. Cumulative restructured assets as % of advances as at end of HY10 is among the highest at 9.5% (incremental restructuring for Q2 is low at 1%).
3. Earnings CAGR for FY10-11 expected to be in 11-12% range.
4. No growth in fee based income in recent past.
5. In  "proposed" consolidation in PSU space, with its current b/s size, it cannot be a hunter.
 
Some of the above explain its lower price multiple.
 


Edited by master - 20/Nov/2009 at 10:02am
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Quote EquityInv Replybullet Posted: 21/Nov/2009 at 9:25am
Originally posted by master

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">IB's NIMs have been consistently 3%+.
 

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">FY09 BV was however more like 127,  so P/BV near 1.30  <FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">link<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">P/BV for FY10 estimates are around 1.0.

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif"> 

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">Other points:

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">1. CASA is healthy at 31%, at par with PSU industry average.

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">2. Cumulative restructured assets as % of advances as at end of HY10 is among the highest at 9.5% (incremental restructuring for Q2 is low at 1%).

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">3. Earnings CAGR for FY10-11 expected to be in 11-12% range.

<FONT face=Georgia>4. No growth in fee based income in recent past.

<FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">5. In  "proposed" consolidation in PSU space, with its current b/s size, it cannot be a hunter.

<FONT face=Georgia> 

<FONT face=Georgia><FONT face="Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif">Some of the above explain its lower price multiple.

<FONT face=Georgia> 


Thanks master for correcting in Book value [I included revenue reserve in it]..

Can you share reason for 10-11% growth estimates for FY11.

IB has been growing it's profit at CAGR of 30%+ for past 4 years. Moreover,it would be great if they main RoA of > 1.5 which seems big plus.



Edited by EquityInv - 21/Nov/2009 at 9:26am
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Quote master Replybullet Posted: 22/Nov/2009 at 10:53pm
Interest rates rising in Q1-11 will do no good to IB. Moreover, revised coverage norms will call for accelerated provisioning.
 
Some analyst estimates i have seen for IB's provisions are Rs 458 cr & 531 cr for FY 10 and FY 11 leading to PAT of Rs 1370 and 1569 cr for respective years.
 
Of course, these can change either side, but given the muted credit growth and not much uptick in fee based income, earnings CAGR may be kind of 12% range. On this basis, FY 11 estimates for EPS & BV are Rs 37 & Rs 192.
 
 
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Quote EquityInv Replybullet Posted: 22/Nov/2009 at 12:54pm
Originally posted by master

Interest rates rising in Q1-11 will do no good to IB. Moreover, revised coverage norms will call for accelerated provisioning.
 
Some analyst estimates i have seen for IB's provisions are Rs 458 cr & 531 cr for FY 10 and FY 11 leading to PAT of Rs 1370 and 1569 cr for respective years.
 
Of course, these can change either side, but given the muted credit growth and not much uptick in fee based income, earnings CAGR may be kind of 12% range. On this basis, FY 11 estimates for EPS & BV are Rs 37 & Rs 192.
 
 


Thanks master for your kind reply with good details... Appreciate your response.

You seems to have really good insight of financial sector.. m wondering if your profession is related to financial sector ?


Edited by EquityInv - 22/Nov/2009 at 12:55pm
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