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Message Icon Topic: HEIDELBERG CEMENTS- A RERATING CANDIDATE Post Reply Post New Topic
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genieinvestor
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Quote genieinvestor Replybullet Posted: 18/Nov/2009 at 11:55am
De :)
Sorry my mistake
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Crimsonarcher
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Quote Crimsonarcher Replybullet Posted: 19/Nov/2009 at 2:46pm
Originally posted by genieinvestor

Agreed that more capacities are going to come up in the future- which explains the rerating for cement stocks.

But the infra growth story in India still holds true. The downturn caused a temporary break, but with the government supporting the infra story, the related sectors like cement are not a totally gone case.

Any suggestions??

Do you know how much capacity has been added and how much of that would be taken up by infrastructure spend?? Whatever might be the case, i don't think there is much of a mismatch. If you think of mega spending, then why not just buy the banks, as they would make money out of any spending anyway!. Also Hiedelberg can dilute equity via preferential allotment at a whim...so the shares you are holding would not have much gains..you can take a chance, but i prefer cement when its a down and beat sector for a very long time, if at all.
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Quote anthro Replybullet Posted: 19/Jun/2010 at 12:55pm
Since my last post when it was at 38 levels this one has gone to 65 levels and now back to 50 . Disappointment was they not declaring dividend last year .Is anyone else tracking this one ?
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Quote anthro Replybullet Posted: 18/Oct/2010 at 5:21am
Is the stock getting derated or punished for poor performance last quarter ? Very insipid interview with ceo ashish guha .This was the time when he should have gone overboard on communication ? 
 
Massive fall in Q3 profits from 27 Crores to just 2.8 crore. Sales down from 208 crore to 168 Crores. Book value at 31 .
 
Q: Tell us why the revenues and the profitability especially the profitability has seen such a steep decline in this quarter?

A: This is the worst quarter for Heidelberg Cement essentially because price is down, volume is flat, and raw material costs are higher.

Q: There have been many reports of price hikes across the country in some parts specially the south if you would like to confirm any of that, what do you think is a pricing situation?

A: There have been some increases over the past few weeks but July to September has been bad quarter.

Q: What about the volumes, are you seeing an improvement?

A: A little bit. Volumes were flattish so we didn’t lose much in terms of volumes.

Q: This is a seasonally weak quarter as well?

A: Yes, it is a monsoon quarter, it is seasonally weak. We had some huge rainfalls in some areas. So we could have done a little better but volumes we grew a little overall.

Q: Could you tell us what the realizations have been for the quarter?

A: Realizations decreased to about Rs 2,800 from Rs 3,100 compared to last year.

Q: You also indicated that this is the worst quarter. Going forward maybe in Q3 and Q4, what is the improvement that you see in the company’s financial performance?

A: It is difficult to gauge, at this point of time with the capacity increase is still going on, this was purely led by the capacity increases which took place in some parts of the country and thereafter cement flowing to all over India from there and therefore despite the volumes growing higher or rather demand growing higher, the prices fell. So we expect a bit of a slowdown and the capacity built up and therefore I don’t foresee this kind of quarter coming in the near-term.

Q: What kind of an improvement would we see?

A: I don’t give guidance.

Q: Would you like to atleast say whether you could maintain last year’s levels in terms of profitability?

A: We have only done Rs 68 crore and the full year profit was 134 crore. So it is very difficult to catch up with that.

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Shadofax
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Quote Shadofax Replybullet Posted: 06/Sep/2011 at 11:27am
Hi Guys,
 
I just wanted to understand the rationale on valuing the small cement companies like Heidelberg. Any insights ?
 
$
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sameerde
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Quote sameerde Replybullet Posted: 08/Sep/2011 at 12:43pm
typically cement companies are valued on an EV/mt of capacity basis. the larger more regionally diversified + more integrated companies have a higher valuation. replacement cost is generally around ~$130/mt incl captive power plant.
so loosely speaking it is value of capex and profits over a period of 3 years (time taken to set up plant from scratch and commence operations) which a company will forego if it sets up its own unit vs acquiring an existing unit.

once the benchmark is set, relative valuations for others can be decided based on scale, integration, price premium/discount to leading brands/regional expansion/captive power etc. another indication could be intent of such MNCs to build up presence through acquisitions (eg holcim--acc & ambuja)

i havent tracked heidelberg so dont have the numbers or greater insight into operations.

EV=mkt cap+debt-cash. EV because capex for such large capital intensive projects is financed by a mix of debt and equity.

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