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Value buys - The intrinsic value is close to market price
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Ajith
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Quote Ajith Replybullet Topic: Rayban Sun Optics- Co. has cash Rs30share
    Posted: 06/Aug/2006 at 7:13pm
 I think Rayban will shoot up sharply from current levels for many
reasons.
            There is an increasing demand for premium and designer sunglasses.Rayban is the undisputed leader in the premium segment and will show a sustained 20 % annual demand in the foreseable future.
           The real story is in the designer sunglasses segment where the company imports and markets from parent world leader Luxottica many high fashion brands like Dolce & Gabbane,Prada,Vogue,Arnette,Killer Loop etc.Next year along with parent Ray Ban Sun Optics will launch Polo Ralph Lauren.This segment grew by 50 % on a small base last year.One can expect a sustainable 25% annual growth .
           Maybe growth rates will be higher than my esimates because of fashion trends and mushrooming of malls,fashion botiques and above all ofcourse the Reliance Retail factor.
     By this year end the company will have at least Rs 30 cash or equivalent on its Balance Sheet.Valuations are cheap.
      Among mutual funds  only UTI has Rayban.
  Right now sales figures are not significant but the potential is immense.
 On 4-8-06 Rayban moved up with an unusually sharp  spurt in volumes.
           
           


Edited by basant - 13/Aug/2006 at 9:34am
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 06/Aug/2006 at 7:43pm

AJith:

I have followed Ray ban for quite some time but after the controversy over the contact lens division (Bausch and Lomb) and the subsequent regulatory issues with whether to do an open offer or not company has not quite delivered. What you say is correct. Rising incomes will lead to more fashion spends and Ray ban is the biggest brand in eye wear but for the stock to move the management has to take it into newer growth trajectories. Another concern is that eye wear constitutes a very small percentage of a consumer’s shopping basket so unlike watches so the external scale of opportunity is a wee bit small. The alient features of Ray Ban financials are:

 

Market price

Rs 87

Market capitalization

Rs 214 crores

Book value

34.91

RoE

13%

EPS (Fy 06)

Rs 4.16

Trailing PE

21 times

Market cap to Sales

4 times

Price to book

2.55 times

 

While the financial are not bad the only concern is the management’s keenness to scale up.Any idea as to when that could happen? Anything that the management stated something in that regard which you could share with us?

 

You may like to read the various constituents of the Indian Consumer’s shopping basket by clicking on the following link.

 



Edited by basant - 06/Aug/2006 at 10:20pm
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Quote Ajith Replybullet Posted: 06/Aug/2006 at 12:10pm
 I do agree that the management of Rayban Sun Optics has not been agressive enough in India.Parent Luxottica has been focussing its energy on China by buying retailers and also having some manufacturing there.Sooner than later they will turn their focus to India as well.That is certain,the reason being that though as you say the pie is small  , Luxottica would like to keep for itself a large chunk of the rapidly expanding pie.(there is heavy competition in the large pies)
 Recenly,Rayban Sun MD Harsh Chopra stated at a conference  ,"The category is growing rapidly with designer brands.What we need to understand is how to deal with obstacles to growth like the supplychain ,fakes,VAT,and high import duty of 33 percent as transfer price."The problem of fakes and substandard stuff is really negative but my argument is that things can only improve and customers(with increasingly higher disposable income) nowadays want quality and they know where to get it (with the spread of internet and blogging ,this trend will strengthen) -at Lifestyle,Shoppers Stop,Lawrence and Mayo,Himalaya Opticals,Gangar Opticians etc etc.
As you say the crucial question is whether the management is going to get agressive.Also when and how Luxottica will get into the retailing sector with the Sunglass Hut chain or will they buy out  chains as they are doing in China?
Since these designer sunglasses have value in the' MADE IN ITALY'  tag
and Rayban Sun can just market these, Luxottica may be satisfied with the present equity stucture though I think they have agreed to make the open offer if directed by the court to do so.At the time of the controversy India was not an attractive market and Luxottica was also not as financially sound as it is today.
Considering all factors I think financial ratios will improve and stock price will rise.
Please comment on any new information I may have given and your judgement.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 06/Aug/2006 at 12:39pm

 You really have done some homework on this company and your arguments do appear compelling. WOuld try and see if I can dig some information on this company. But yes, generally investors should have at least a 24 months outlook before getting into such themes but since the downside is well protected all you can lose is opportunity cost. That means one can get in and increase positions as more clarity emerges.I like investing more on tha basis of chnaging business prospects and macro trends because that is where the maximum money is made. More-over if the business model is encouraging then financials iinvariably follow. And if your assesement of Rayban is true then surely the stock could reward shareholders.

What has been Rayban's growth style and revenue scale up in China and other developing nations?I am not sure if Luxotica is listed in case there are other comparable listings it would be interesting to see the kind of market caps those related businesses trade at. If you have any idea on this it could be helpful.
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Quote Ajith Replybullet Posted: 06/Aug/2006 at 9:11am
I do not have the Luxottica sales figures in China but recently they made their third acquisition in the luxury retail space.If the cash hoard with Rayban Sun Optics is used for getting into direct retail distribution the PE will expand dramatically.
           Maybe the management has not been agressive in marketing because of the seamless global advertising strategy adopted by Luxottica across all countries .Also supplychain issues and retail distribution has to be in place first.It all depends on Luxottica's India plans .In any case as you say this is a longterm story.
             Luxottica market cap is around 12 billion dollars and its recent stock performance has been impressive.The PE at 24 is also  relatively high.So if there are positive signals PE in India could expand considerably within a short period.
           Please keep tracking the company closely.
           
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 06/Aug/2006 at 10:05am
Luxoticca market cap at US $ 12 billion is significant.My sense is that they sell only sunglasses so creatiung a market cap of this magnitude takes some doing. Also since the Indian enterprise  value (Market cap - Cash)  is US $ 30 million (Rs 130 crores) Since as you say the PE of the parent is 24 that means that they would be earning about US $500 million each year. SO the Indian operations are worth only 3 weeks  of the parent's profits!
 
The opportunity is certainly there but some how I feel India could wait for a few more years to see that a desired roll out  but sonner or later as consumer spending grows companies like Ray Ban will surely be benefitted.  But as one can see it can really test an investor's patience.
ALso these businesses could  create significant market caps as these comes as a  surprise to me. Thanks for filling us in.
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Quote Ajith Replybullet Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 9:10am
 As per Forbes on 18-8-2006CEO Andrea Guerra said Luxottica ,parent of Rayban Sun Optics is looking at acquisitions and other growth opportunities especially in emerging markets like Russia,Turkey,India,Brazil and Korea.If Rayban agets agressive with its cash hoard of around Rs 70 crores,the PE WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY and it may become a multibagger herereon.

Edited by Ajith - 21/Aug/2006 at 9:13am
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 9:35am

Thanks for filling in. Rayban remains a stock with good potential and limited downside risks.

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