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shuchi
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Quote shuchi Replybullet Topic: Why is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holding CRISIL
    Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 9:40pm

Why is Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holding CRISIL in his portfolio?

 

 

 

 CRISIL is India's Leading Ratings, Financial News, Risk and Policy Advisory company. It offers a comprehensive range of rating services. CRISIL is the only rating agency to operate on the basis of a sectoral specialisation, which underpins the sharpness of analysis, responsiveness of the process and large-scale dissemination of opinion pieces.

In addition, CRISIL also offers services to the mutual fund industry through CRISIL Fund Services, a leading provider of fund evaluation services and risk solutions in India. With over Rs. 7.8 trillion of debt, 5,600 issues and 3,000 issuers rated to date, CRISIL continues to play a key role in the development of India's debt markets.

 

CRISIL’s association with Standard & Poor's , a division of The Mc Graw Hill Companies, dates back to 1996. This has now culminated in Standard & Poor's acquiring a majority shareholding in CRISIL. The partnership helps CRISIL to anticipate new market challenges and introduce value-added rating methodologies. CRISIL Ratings and Standard & Poor's collaborate on several projects in the U.S. and in East Asia, and jointly promote business and services in India. CRISIL Ratings also offers technical know-how overseas. For instance, it has provided assistance and training for setting up ratings agencies in Malaysia (RAM) and Israel and in the Caribbean. In March 2004, CRISIL took up an equity stake of about 9% in the share capital of the Caribbean Information and Credit rating Services (CariCRIS) with an investment of US $ 300,000. The Caribbean rating agency is a unique initiative -- it is the world's first regional credit rating agency. It will offer rating and other services in 19 countries. CRISIL will also provide technical assistance to the agency to establish and stabilize its operations.

 

Standard & Poor is    world's leading rating agency came out with an open offer some time last year with CRISIL and so it becomes a majority shareholder of CRISIL with a holding of 58.5%. This shall integrate CRISILS operations with   Standard & Poor's and to fully leverage opportunities both in India and abroad. Crisil, with its talented analytical pool and strong management, shall play an integral role in the  Standard & Poor's and The McGraw-Hill Companies global network. It shall be benefited with the brand image of  Standard & Poor's.  In recent years, Standard & Poor's commissioned Crisil in an increasing number of global analytical projects that have deepened the relationship and contributed to Crisil's growth and diversification.

 

CRISIL's analysis of the Indian Banking Sector reveals that there are several similarities between the current period and the mid-1990s: these include sharp credit expansions, high economic growth, and increasing interest rates.

 

The new Basel Accord with its three pillars

  1. Minimum capital requirements,
  2. Supervisory Review process and
  3. Market discipline is aimed at developing risk sensitive standards in the banking industry.

 

The First Pillar

 

The first pillar sets out minimum capital requirements. The new framework maintains both the current definition of capital and minimum requirements of 8% of capital to be risk weighted assets.

 

For measuring credit risk of a bank, there are two different approaches being proposed.

 

  • Standardized Approach:

 

Ø       Under the Standardized approach, ratings assigned by the Credit Rating Agencies (CRA) is to be used.

Ø       It is likely to be implemented in some key Asian markets like India, Malaysia, Philllipines, Japan, and Honkong.

Ø       It shall give a unique opportunity to the domestic CRA’s (Credit Rating Agencies) 

 

  • Internal Rating – based approach:

          

Ø       The use of the IRB (Internal Rating Based) approach will be subject to approval by the supervisors based on the standards established by the committee.

Ø       Some of the risk weights shall depend on the Credit worthiness of the borrowers.

Ø       The IRB is to follow after Availability of data and systems with banks, and regulator’s comfort with such data.

 

Second Pillar

 

The Supervisory review process ensures that the bank has sound internal processes in place to assess the adequacy of capital based on a thorough evaluation of its risks. The new framework stresses the importance of banks management developing an internal capital assessment process and setting targets for capital that are commensurate with the banks particular risk profile and control environment. Supervisors are responsible for evaluating how well the banks are assessing the capital requirement needs relative to their risks.

 

Third Pillar

 

The third Pillar aims to bolster market discipline through enhanced disclosure by banks. Effective disclosure is essential to ensure that market participants can better understand risk profile and the adequacy of their capitalalisation.

 

 

With the Basel Accord,

Ø  A significant portion of the capital requirement will depend upon ratings assigned by CRAs.

 

ØCRA’s to play a key role in the financial sector. Quality of ratings and the process – critical to regulators

 

ØTo ensure quality and consistency of ratings, the Accord has recommended qualitative and quantitative parameters:

 

1.    Qualitative - Process for recognition of domestic CRAs

2. Quantitative - A mapping process across rating agencies, so that appropriate risk weights are assigned to comparable ratings of different CRAs.

 

 

The Indian banking system is today better positioned than ever before in terms of its business and financial health. CRISIL believes that despite the high credit growth rates across the banking sector, the systemic liquidity will be manageable over the medium term. The core profitability of the sector is expected to remain range-bound, despite the increase in the cost of funds in 2005-06. The incremental capital requirement for the sector on the implementation of Basel II norms, are manageable on a systemic basis. Asset quality is also better than ever before.

 

EARNINGS SNAPSHOT

 

 

Current Market Price

Rs. 1550

EPS

Rs. 26.61

PE

58.2

Market Capitalization

Rs. 102036 Lakhs

 

                                   

 



Edited by basant - 02/Aug/2006 at 9:55pm
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 10:29pm
Valuations are looking a bit too steep....however, its a wonderful player in its field, so for a risk-taking investor, this can be worth a play.However, we do need to understand that Crisil is a niche player along with ICRA ( not a listed player).Also, with so many papers floating around, the rating agencies are likely to have a field day. Also, with cos. coming out with IPOs will prefer to get their papers rated. Also, with tightness of liquidity, they will be a race for getting the papers rated so as to attract investors. Basel norm implementation will also provide a necessary impetus to these CRAs.However, shuchi, dont you think this is adequately priced?
 
 
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 10:55pm
Vivek as you know I have a fancy for such stocks You have rightly identified the positives so let me add a few:
 
(1) At  market cap of Rs 1036 crores (US $ 250 million) you are getting India's largest credit rating agency where the owners (S&P )is the most respectable company in business 
 
(2) The sheer size of opportunity is HUGE! Stocks like Crisil, HDFC Bank have always appeared over valued because of the sustainability of their business models.
 
(3) Over a period of 5 or 10 years Crisil does not have to set up a new plant, purchase land write off debt. SO we have free cash flow, no debt problems and very low capex requirement.
 
(4) I just checked all the mutual fund holdings and there is not  asingle fund that holds CRISIL. So even if earnings are down there could be no price shocks.Who will sell?
 
(5) Finally Crisil is more like a brand see Mr X can rate a debt issue but when he does it working at Crisil it adds value if he does it in private practice no one is interested. That is a real brand.
 
So while the trailing PE is high it would be interesting to see the growth rate at which the company would work. My sense is that the company would report higher growth in a rising interest rate environment and on the back of business that S&P would offshore back to india and that would reduce the PE and make the PEG  more comfortable.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2006 at 1:34am
.... and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is holding CRISIL for more then 10 years!!! That is conviction. People hold stocks for 10 years when the market price goes below the purchase price but if you can hold a stock for 10 years and let the profit run this is what can happen!
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 15/Aug/2006 at 12:48pm
Crisil had high valuation and it is going to stay high. Very low float, excellent business. All profit is free cashflow. You need table, chair and computer to expand business. I am wondering why dont they expand in outsourcing space very aggressively. They have got excellent set up.
 
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Quote Subodh Replybullet Posted: 18/Aug/2006 at 10:20pm

Buffett has a stake in Standard and Poor and Standard and Poor have a majority stake in Crisil, so this must be one of the companies that meets buffett's strict criteria of stock picking.

 

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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 18/Aug/2006 at 10:33pm
Guess Buffet has Moody in greater quantity but great observation nevertheless.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 25/Jan/2007 at 12:01pm
There is almost pin drop silence in the market as Crisil doubles itself over the last few month. Is anyone tracking Crisil?
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