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Topic: How to spot when the market hits a top

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abhishekbasu
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Joined: 07/Sep/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 335

Posted: 29/Mar/2010 at 1:09pm

I read it since I read a lot of other stuff regularly as well :-) Also, it contains good articles and news updates on global economics that is sometimes easy to miss. And more importantly, it's free :-)

The point I am trying to make is that these newsletters pander to a particular segment and it might not be a good idea to create your opinions by reading any one (or two) of them. You can very well use it for getting info.

Originally posted by camanoj

If daily reckoning always has same view (bearish i.e), I wonder why you have been reading it for so long!

If i don't get bread at a local store for a few times, I stop going there for bread.

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arunshah2k
Senior Member

Joined: 25/May/2008
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 494

Posted: 01/Apr/2010 at 4:18pm

Time to be cautious again.

Sucker penny stocks have started to move again - Himachal futuristic, silverline and many other junk stocks are making moves in past couple of days.

Edited by arunshah2k - 01/Apr/2010 at 4:23pm

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camanoj
Senior Member

Joined: 10/Feb/2010
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 195

Posted: 01/Apr/2010 at 6:24pm

Thanks. Well said. Hope to read gist of your learnings from these readings here someitmes.

Originally posted by abhishekbasu

I read it since I read a lot of other stuff regularly as well :-) Also, it contains good articles and news updates on global economics that is sometimes easy to miss. And more importantly, it's free :-)

The point I am trying to make is that these newsletters pander to a particular segment and it might not be a good idea to create your opinions by reading any one (or two) of them. You can very well use it for getting info.

Originally posted by camanoj

If daily reckoning always has same view (bearish i.e), I wonder why you have been reading it for so long!

If i don't get bread at a local store for a few times, I stop going there for bread.

Manoj

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manish_okhade
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Joined: 20/Oct/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1997

Posted: 01/Apr/2010 at 7:17pm

Few indications in my opinion:

1) MFs starts advertising their 1yr, 3 yr, 5yr results.

2) Banks starts approaching you for investment plans

3) You see that job sector is stablizing and hike, promotions happening. All of sudden you approached by consultants and HR team looking in action.

4) One feels comfortable taking risks in the larket with cash which was

lying idel in the bank for past few years.

5) Your boss, freinds, relative is telling you his succeses in the stocks.

6) Price of brokerage stocks are approaching 52 week high

7) Leisure companies starts giving good qtrly results like TITAN, MAHINDRA

RESORTS etc.

If stock rise concides with many of above then one can safely say stocks are approaching dizziy heights :-)).

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hit2710
Senior Member

Joined: 15/Jun/2009
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 4013

Posted: 01/Apr/2010 at 7:46pm

Good observations Manish. Another thing to add to manish's observation is

Raining of IPOs most of which are priced fancily and most of which give listing gains irrespective of valuation or business prospects.

Yet another is what Lynch mentioned and which is most important. And that is when people who asked u what to buy start advising u what to buy.

But once this phase begins it often lasts more than people expect and near the end of it, even the most pessimist people are convinced about the bullishness of markets.

Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.

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vinvestor2010
Senior Member

Joined: 19/Mar/2010
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 299

Posted: 01/Apr/2010 at 9:49pm

Originally posted by manish_okhade

Few indications in my opinion:

1) MFs starts advertising their 1yr, 3 yr, 5yr results.

2) Banks starts approaching you for investment plans

3) You see that job sector is stablizing and hike, promotions happening. All of sudden you approached by consultants and HR team looking in action.

4) One feels comfortable taking risks in the larket with cash which was

lying idel in the bank for past few years.

5) Your boss, freinds, relative is telling you his succeses in the stocks.

6) Price of brokerage stocks are approaching 52 week high

7) Leisure companies starts giving good qtrly results like TITAN, MAHINDRA

RESORTS etc.

If stock rise concides with many of above then one can safely say stocks are approaching dizziy heights :-)).

Hi manishji, in your opinion how much of a correction would make the market reasonably valued again from 17600 downwards. About 15000 or even lower??

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tigershark
Senior Member

Joined: 13/Oct/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3542

Posted: 01/Apr/2010 at 10:02pm

Originally posted by vinvestor2010

Originally posted by manish_okhade

Few indications in my opinion:

1) MFs starts advertising their 1yr, 3 yr, 5yr results.

2) Banks starts approaching you for investment plans

3) You see that job sector is stablizing and hike, promotions happening. All of sudden you approached by consultants and HR team looking in action.

4) One feels comfortable taking risks in the larket with cash which was

lying idel in the bank for past few years.

5) Your boss, freinds, relative is telling you his succeses in the stocks.

6) Price of brokerage stocks are approaching 52 week high

7) Leisure companies starts giving good qtrly results like TITAN, MAHINDRA

RESORTS etc.

If stock rise concides with many of above then one can safely say stocks are approaching dizziy heights :-)).

Hi manishji, in your opinion how much of a correction would make the market reasonably valued again from 17600 downwards. About 15000 or even lower??

ramdeo agarwal of MOST said that if anything does happen in india it happens in 50%!(today on cnbc)

understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

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manish_okhade
Senior Member

Joined: 20/Oct/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1997

Posted: 01/Apr/2010 at 9:48am

Originally posted by vinvestor2010

Hi manishji, in your opinion how much of a correction would make the market reasonably valued again from 17600 downwards. About 15000 or even lower??[/QUOTE

If you ask me about the correction then i say that when and how much it would be i simply dont know. I can only say that its time to enjoy the o

If you ask me about the correction then i say that when and how much it would be i simply dont know. I can only say that its time to enjoy the outing, picnic and study the good stocks in free time :-)). Be ready when pessimism strikes to dig the gold with conviction.

Don't plan the investment in reference to SENSEX, Irrespective of mkt look for values all the time and remain invested unemotionaly. To earn the money one needs hard work and long term patience. Once RJ said that his success formula is simple "Anybody could be rich if invests for long time and has conviction in one's purchase". Conviction part is the bible, it only comes from strong homework only.

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