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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Topic: Which Stock to Buy? A Quantitative Analysis
    Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 4:13pm

Jahapanah Basant Maharaj has created TheEquityDesk XI, a set of 11 stocks which has the potential to grow at a good pace over a period of time. My analysis is an attempt to rank the 11 stocks and help an investor decide which among the lot is the best and the worst stock to invest at the current market prices.

Basically, this is a quantitative analysis of a set of stocks, based purely on their fundamentals. I'm only using the TED XI as an example - this methodology can be used on any portfolio to determine the best and the worst.
 
All the 11 stocks will be analysed based on -

P/E Ratio
Return on Equity
Last 4 years CAGR Sales Growth
Last 4 Years CAGR Profit Growth
Market Cap
P/BV Ratio
Debt to Equity Ratio
Dividend Yield
Last 4 Years CAGR dividend per share growth
Dividend Payout Ratio

Basically, we will be looking at parameters typically used by both "growth" and "value" investors.

Ranking Methodology:

- All the 11 stocks are ranked based on each parameter - say P/E Ratio to begin with. A stock with the lowest P/E Ratio gets the highest 11 points, while a stock with the highest P/E Ratio gets the lowest 1 point.

- Similarly, for other parameters like RoE, marketcap etc, each stock is awarded between 1 points and 11 points depending on where it stands compared to eachother.

- The scores are added at the end, and the stocks are ranked from 1 to 11.

Might not make much sense now, but as we go along, you'll know what I mean.

Flaw in the Methodology:

Looks into the past rather than the future to rank the stocks.


ROUND NUMBER 1 - THE P/E RATIO

Obviously, lower the P/E ratio, the better. Since there are 11 stocks in the portfolio, the stock with the lowest P/E Ratio gets 11 points while the stock with the highest P/E ratio gets 1 point.

Company Name P/E Ratio Points Earned
Voltamp Transformers 11.67 11
Hawkins Cookers  13.57 10
Voltas 19.29 9
Blue Star  19.94 8
Yes Bank 20.46 7
Page Industries  28.94 6
HDFC 29.56 5
HDFC Bank 30.41 4
Zydus Wellness  40.23 3
Titan Industries  43.12 2
Thermax 55.12 1
 
 
Voltamp is the cheapest stock of the lot and hence gets rewarded with the maximum 11 points. Meanwhile, Thermax had a loss making quarter recently, and hence its P/E is extremely high. It is appropriately penalized with just 1 point awarded to it in this round. The rest of the stocks get 10, 9, 8 etc points in descending order based on their current P/E.
 
 
ROUND NO. 2 - RETURN ON EQUITY
 
Higher the RoE, better is the stock for investment. The stock with the highest RoE gets 11 points and the stock with the lowest RoE gets 1 point in this round.
 
Company Name RoE Points Earned
Hawkins Cookers  94.68 11
Zydus Wellness  45 10
Blue Star  43.01 9
Page Industries  39.99 8
Voltas 34.58 7
Titan Industries  34.55 6
Voltamp Transformers 24.82 5
HDFC 18.59 4
Yes Bank 15.46 3
HDFC Bank 13.7 2
Thermax 13.46 1
 
 
To find out the stock with the best combination of low P/E and high RoE, we add the points earned by each stock in the P/E round and the RoE round.
 
Company Name RoE (Pts) P/E (Pts) Total Pts
Hawkins Cookers  11 10 21
Blue Star  9 8 17
Voltamp Transformers 5 11 16
Voltas 7 9 16
Page Industries  8 6 14
Zydus Wellness  10 3 13
Yes Bank 3 7 10
HDFC 4 5 9
Titan Industries  6 2 8
HDFC Bank 2 4 6
Thermax 1 1 2
 
Ranking of stocks with the best combination of low P/E & high RoE -
 
Company Name Ranking
Hawkins Cookers  1
Blue Star  2
Voltamp Transformers 3
Voltas 4
Page Industries  5
Zydus Wellness  6
Yes Bank 7
HDFC 8
Titan Industries  9
HDFC Bank 10
Thermax 11
 
For now, the best stock to buy is Hawkins and the worst to own now is Thermax. But the contest is not over yet. We add the scores earned by each stock in market cap, sales growth, profit growth, debt equity ratio and other rounds.
 
Coming up next - Round No. 3 - the Marketcap round.
 
 
 
 
 
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 5:14pm
ROUND NO. 3 - THE MARKET CAP
 
It is almost always better from capital appreciation point of view to invest in stocks with low market cap. So, in this round, the lowest market cap stock gets the maximum while the stock with the highest market cap to get just 1 point. Expect the HDFC twins to be hit hard in this round.
 
Company Name Market Cap in Rs. Cr. Points Earned
Hawkins Cookers  513 11
Voltamp Transformers 914 10
Page Industries  1249 9
Zydus Wellness  2015 8
Blue Star  3962 7
Voltas 6847 6
Thermax 8879 5
Yes Bank 10926 4
Titan Industries  12436 3
HDFC 87369 2
HDFC Bank 95932 1
 
 
ROUND NO. 4 - LAST 4 YEAR SALES CAGR
 
Sales growth rates are as important as profit growth rates, if not more. If a stock has a scorching bottomline growth and a dull topline growth, it probably implies that the going might not last long. Bottomline growing faster than topline can happen because of improving margins, for example. But there is only a limit up to which you can increase margins - after that, the bottomline growth will align with the topline growth.
 
So in this round, we reward companies with high topline growth and take away points from companies with lower sales growth rates.
 
Company Name 4 year Sales CAGR in % Points Earned
Yes Bank 87.91 11
Zydus Wellness  72.88 10
HDFC Bank 37.88 9
Page Industries  35.92 8
Titan Industries  33.36 7
HDFC 27.69 6
Voltas 24.37 5
Blue Star  21.92 4
Thermax 21.06 3
Hawkins Cookers  18.61 2
Voltamp Transformers 15.88 1
 
 
ROUND NO. 5 - LAST 4 YEARS PROFIT CAGR
 
No need to explain the logic behind this round I suppose!
 
Company Name 4 year Profit CAGR in % Points Earned
Zydus Wellness  96.8 11
Hawkins Cookers  73.21 10
Yes Bank 71.61 9
Voltas 48.89 8
Blue Star  44.8 7
Voltamp Transformers 38.95 6
HDFC Bank 35.68 5
Titan Industries  35.57 4
Page Industries  31.89 3
HDFC 22.45 2
Thermax 3.47 1
 
 
Now we add the scores again after 5 Rounds -
 
Company Name RoE (Pts) P/E (Pts) Market Cap (Pts) Sales Growth (Pts) Profit Growth (Pts) Total Points
Hawkins Cookers  11 10 11 2 10 44
Zydus Wellness  10 3 8 10 11 42
Blue Star  9 8 7 4 7 35
Voltas 7 9 6 5 8 35
Page Industries  8 6 9 8 3 34
Yes Bank 3 7 4 11 9 34
Voltamp Transformers 5 11 10 1 6 33
Titan Industries  6 2 3 7 4 22
HDFC Bank 2 4 1 9 5 21
HDFC 4 5 2 6 2 19
Thermax 1 1 5 3 1 11
 
 
Ranking of stocks with the best combination of low P/E, high RoE, high sales & profit growth and low marketcap -
 
Company Name Ranking
Hawkins Cookers  1
Zydus Wellness  2
Blue Star  3
Voltas 3
Page Industries  5
Yes Bank 5
Voltamp Transformers 7
Titan Industries  8
HDFC Bank 9
HDFC 10
Thermax 11
 
 
ANALYSIS:
 
- Hawkins tops each of the 5 rounds except for the rather crucial sales growth round.
 
- Although Zydus "looks expensive", it still seems to be among the best stock to buy if we consider the above 5 parameters.
 
- Thermax had an extraordinary expense (write off) in the last quarter of FY10. Our methodology punishes such a company, because at the end of the day, the market looks at the numbers on the table. Only the "perfect" companies are rewarded with higher rankings.
 
The contest isn't over yet - 5 more rounds to go, before we decide on the winners and the losers.
 
 
 
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bearish
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Quote bearish Replybullet Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 5:31pm
Thank you for the post smatcat! very informative indeed. by this logic, im surprised to see bluestar up there..
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 5:34pm
arey, its just the intermission. Watch out the climax of the movie with a twist ending.
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rapidriser
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Quote rapidriser Replybullet Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 6:08pm
Originally posted by smartcat

arey, its just the intermission. Watch out the climax of the movie with a twist ending.
 
 
Kya picture abhi baaki hai mere dost???
 
When will we get to see the post interval twisted climax part ?
When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée
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samirarora
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Quote samirarora Replybullet Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 6:13pm
Very nice and am thoroughly enjoying the demonstation...goes well to understand various concepts too..Well done!
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prabhakarkudva
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Quote prabhakarkudva Replybullet Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 8:23pm
Amazing work smartcat,especially to compare companies to compute opportunity cost! Some suggestions if I may:

1.Instead of using ROE and payout in isolation use ROE(1 - payout ratio)which is what Basant Maharaj would like .This will also put the ROE in the right perspective and may be Hawkins will lose out the numero uno position.

2.You can use the one year forward EPS and forward PE to eliminate total reliance on historical data.

3. Incidently the parameters you haven't yet computed are not as important as the first six as far as growth is concerned.

4. You could also add the management pedigree to this,although wouldn't make much difference to the TED XI rankings.

Superwork! Waiting for the climax.

Edited by prabhakarkudva - 15/Aug/2010 at 8:26pm
Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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nannu_68
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Quote nannu_68 Replybullet Posted: 15/Aug/2010 at 8:57pm
Speechless
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